Damaging Winds in Illinois, September 28, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
315 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN DEALS WITH HOW SOON ONGOING PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE CWA THIS EVENING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST
TOMORROW NIGHT.  MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THEM.  TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE MIDWEST RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR CURRENT ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
MOVE EASTWARD AND OFF THE EAST COAST LATE TOMORROW LEAVE MORE ZONAL
FLOW IN ITS WAKE.

ELEVATED STORMS CONTINUE TO ROLL EAST ACROSS OVER EAST CENTRAL
MISSOURI ARE BEING FED BY 35KT 925-850MB WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE
OF AN AXIS OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. ADDITIONAL TSRA CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT OVER SWRN MO ATTM.  LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
COVERAGE OF TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE IN
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 UNTIL THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR A
KPPQ-KJEF CLEARS THE AREA BY 03Z.  THIS SHOULD BE THE END OF PCPN AS
SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT ARE GUSTING IN THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT...SO
WILL MENTION SOME GUSTS THROUGH MID EVENING...BUT THEN THE GRADIENT
RELAXES QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SFC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE CWA LATE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
PROVIDING EXCELLENT RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS.  DEWPOINT PROGS
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S IN THE SRN AND ERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...WHICH MEANS THAT LOW TEMPS IN THOSE AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
FALL INTO AT LEAST THE UPPER 30S.  SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND MENTIONED
PATCHY FROST.  OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE DRY UNTIL THE
CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SWRN CONUS OPENS UP AND LIFTS OUT
ACROSS MO/IL ON SATURDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE CONTINUED LOW CHC POPS.

IN THE EXTENDED (SUN-WED)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEVELOP A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE CNTRL-ERN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A LOW
DIGGING INTO THE WEST.  THIS SHOULD HELP BRING WARMER TEMPS BACK
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...AND HAVE FOLLOWED THE GFS MOS MEAN TEMPS
WHICH ARE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE
DRY...BUT HAVE FOLLOWED THE PROGRESSIVE GFS WHICH WOULD BRING A
STRONG SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT AND CONSEQUENTLY A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
TO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

BRITT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
309 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-292015-
ADAMS IL-AUDRAIN-BOND IL-BOONE-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CALLAWAY-
CLINTON IL-COLE-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE IL-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-GREENE IL-
IRON-JEFFERSON-JERSEY IL-KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON-
MADISON IL-MARION-MARION IL-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY-
MONTGOMERY IL-OSAGE-PIKE-PIKE IL-RALLS-RANDOLPH IL-REYNOLDS-
SHELBY-ST. CHARLES-ST. CLAIR IL-ST. FRANCOIS-ST. LOUIS-
ST. LOUIS CITY-STE. GENEVIEVE-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WASHINGTON IL-
309 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR AN
EVENING THUNDERSTORM BUT THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT.

PEDIGO