Tornadoes and Hail in Oklahoma, October 19, 2005

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2005

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-201200-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM CROWELL AND WICHITA FALLS TEXAS...NORTHEAST TO PAULS
VALLEY AND HOLDENVILLE.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THROUGH 3 AM.

IMPACTS...
SUPERCELL STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME DAMAGE TO AUTOMOBILES AND VEGETATION. ALONG
WITH THE LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA WHERE WE HAVE CONCERN FOR
SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS AREA WILL BE OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL... NORTHWEST... AND
NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

DISCUSSION...
A MUCH ANTICIPATED STRONG UPPER STORM SYSTEM OVER COLORADO LATE THIS
MORNING CONTINUES TO MOVE CLOSER TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH WEST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING. THE
STORM WILL INDUCE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE AREA...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY UNTIL
MIDNIGHT OR LATER...BEFORE SURGING QUICKLY SOUTH AGAIN AS A COLD
FRONT EARLY THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THIS FRONT...A DRY LINE WILL
EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW. ALL THREE OF THESE
FEATURES...THE SURFACE LOW...STATIONARY FRONT...AND DRY LINE...WILL
HELP FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING...AND FORECASTED INSTABILITY MARGINAL...VERY STRONG FORCING
AND WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL
YIELD STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING HAIL
BEING A CONCERN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT THE TORNADIC POTENTIAL ACROSS A SMALL
PORTION OF WEST-CENTRAL INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH A VERY STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR PROFILE EXPECTED...SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST
OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA...AND NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT.
THIS CORRIDOR OF CONCERN WILL EXTEND FROM AROUND CHEYENNE...
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WATONGA...ENID...AND PONCA CITY AREAS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY OCT 20.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...85 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...THE POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR THE COLDEST AIR OF THIS FALL SEASON TO BE USHERED
INTO THE AREA. A LIGHT FREEZE COULD OCCUR OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA MONDAY MORNING. PERSONS WITH OUTDOOR INTERESTS LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS CLOSELY.
IT WOULD BE A GOOD IDEA TO PLAN AHEAD FOR ANY PRECAUTIONS YOU MAY
HAVE TO MAKE FOR TENDER VEGETATION.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
THURSDAY.

A GRAPHICAL OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN.

MAXWELL

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