Tornadoes and Hail in Kansas, October 19, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
159 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2005

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS IN THE FIRST PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO
CONVECTION...SOME SVR...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS.

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM AROUND
BARBER COUNTY WEST SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.  MID
LEVEL SYNOPTIC DRY INTRUSION HAD ENCOMPASSED MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CWA MOST OF THE DAY SO FAR.  THIS HAS ACTUALLY ALLOWED
INSOLATION NORTH OF THE FRONT...HELPING TO SLOW THE COLD FRONT DOWN
IN THE SOUTHWEST...ALONG WITH THE DYNAMIC PRESSURE FALLS IN ADVANCE
OF THE LOW.  TRIPLE POINT SETTING UP NICELY IN THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE, AND THIS AREA IS ALSO WHERE LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS IS
NOSING UP TOWARDS.  LATEST 1KM VISIBLE SHOWS TCU DEVELOPING IN
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AS OF 1830 UTC.  ONGOING AXIS OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION FROM STAFFORD TO MEDICINE LODGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EASTWARD, ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUES TO BE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK WESTWARD TOWARDS NESS CITY TO DODGE
CITY TO ASHLAND.

IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT.  H8
CAPE OF AROUND 800 TO 1000 J/KG WILL AUGMENT THE REGION OF GREATEST
THETA-E DECREASE IN THE H6-H7 LAYER FOR FAIRLY VIGOROUS CONVECTION.
LARGE HAIL WILL CERTAINLY BE A POSSIBILITY AS FAR NORTH AS ULYSSES
TO CIMARRON TO JETMORE TO LARNED THROUGH 03Z.  THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE MOVE, AND THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL BE EXITING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA AFTER 06Z.  WILL KEEP
THE CATEGORICAL POPS GOING IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES, MAINLY
CENTERED AROUND THE 22Z TO 02Z TIME FRAME.

COLD ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW.  THE
COLD ADVECTION AND RESIDUAL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES EARLY
TOMORROW.  HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 NEAR HAYS WITH SOME NEAR
70F READINGS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TOWARDS ELKHART.  LIGHT WINDS
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
DOWN WELL INTO THE LOWER 40S.  MUCH THE SAME FOR FRIDAY WITH
CONTINUED SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS BEGINS TO AMPLIFY MORE.

DAYS 3-7...

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES NOW CLUSTERING AROUND THE SOLUTION OF BRINGING
A COLD CLOSED UPPER LOW SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND. THEREFORE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WEATHER AT
LEAST INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT THE MODELS TO HAVE THEIR
USUAL BIAS OF LIFTING THE LOW OUT TOO SOON SO WILL MAINTAIN THE COOL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH DAY SEVEN FOR NOW. GOING GRIDS HAVE THIS IN
HAND AND WILL NEED ONLY SOME COSMETIC TWEAKS TO MATCH OUR
NEIGHBORS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  44  63  41  66 /  80   0   0   0
GCK  43  64  38  66 /  80   0   0   0
EHA  43  68  40  68 /  50   0   0   0
LBL  44  66  41  68 /  80   0   0   0
HYS  42  60  41  64 /  90   0   0   0
P28  48  61  43  67 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UMSCHEID/JOHNSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
511 AM CDT WED OCT 19 2005

KSZ065-066-076>081-085>090-201000-
BARBER-CLARK-COMANCHE-EDWARDS-FORD-GRAY-HASKELL-KIOWA-MEADE-PAWNEE-
PRATT-SEWARD-STAFFORD-STEVENS-
511 AM CDT WED OCT 19 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS THIS AFTERNOON.  THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A LIBERAL TO
LARNED LINE, BETWEEN 4 PM AND 11 PM CDT.  THE MAIN HAZARD FROM
THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SOUTH OF A
LIBERAL TO LARNED LINE.

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>064-074-075-084-201000-
ELLIS-FINNEY-GRANT-HAMILTON-HODGEMAN-KEARNY-LANE-MORTON-NESS-RUSH-
SCOTT-STANTON-TREGO-
511 AM CDT (411 AM MDT) WED OCT 19 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.  AT THIS TIME, IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS IF ANY STORMS WILL
REACH SEVERE LIMITS.  RAINFALL WILL AVERAGE FROM A HALF INCH TO AN
INCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

12/24

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