Hail in Ohio, November 8, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO
625 AM EST TUE NOV 8 2005

.AVIATION(12Z-12Z)...
XPC VFR CONDS TO PERSIST THRU THE DAY HWVR THIS EVG BROUGHT TEMPO
GROUPS FOR MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH SHWRS INTO THE WEST AFTER 00Z AS
WARM FRONT MOVES NE INTO THE AREA.  AFTER 04Z OR SO XPC CONDS TO BE
DOMINANT...DROPPING TO IFR AT TIMES AFTER 06Z IN LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN AND PSBLY A TSTM.  TIMG LATER IN THE EAST.  ALSO BROUGHT CHC OF
TSTMS EAST TO KCLE BY 10Z OR SO BUT DID NOT PLACE IN FCST FURTHER
EAST AS CAPE REMAINS LIMITED UNTIL LATE MORNING THERE.

&&

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU THUR)...
TODAY WILL BE COOL...BUT RELATIVELY QUITE.  A FEW TSRA HAVE
DEVELOPED NEAR A BOUNDARY CENTRAL IN-IL.  THE THICKNESS PATTERN
WOULD SUPPORT A SOUTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY SO MOST OF PRECIP SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA...BUT LEFT CHC POPS WRN AND SRN OH FOR
A STRAY SHOWER OF TSRA.

TONIGHT WILL NOT BE SO QUITE.  MODELS COMING INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT LIFTING WARM FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  AS THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
SHIFTS EAST MOISTURE WILL BE FUNNELING UP FROM THE GULF COAST...SO
THE 60+ DEWPOINTS WILL BE CREEPING NE.  THIS COMBINED STRONG 300 MB
DIVERGENCE TONIGHT WILL LEND ITSELF TO ELEVATE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

SPC HAS AREA WEST OF CLEVELAND IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TONIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.  NOT MUCH CAPE BUT ALOT OF
LIFT...AND UNFORTUNEATLY ALOT OF SHEAR.  0-1 KM SHEAR AT TOL AT 06Z
IS 25M/S.

WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT TO NEAR ERIE PA BY DAYBREAK WENDESDAY.  BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COLD FRONT NEAR CLEVELAND...AHEAD OF IT CAPES
INCREASE TO OVER 1000 J/KG WITH LIS OF -2...SO MORE TSRA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA.

THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS THE MUCH MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS MOVES OVER LAKE ERIE (850 TEMPS PLUNGE TO -8C)...AND WITH
STRONG NW FLO EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP SNOWBELT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  BY MORNING THE SFC TO 700 MB THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT
SNOW...BUT THE SFC TO 850 MB THICKNESS JUST HOVERED NEAR THE
CRITICAL 1300 METER LEVEL.  SO FOR THURSDAY FORECAST FOR SNOWBELT
SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...CHANGING BACK TO ALL RAIN.  BUT IT WILL STILL BE VERY
COOL AND RAW.

&&

.LONG TERM(THUR THRU MON)...
AS TO BE EXPECTED MODELS HAVE SUM SLIGHT DIFFS BUT ALL POINTING
TOWARDS SEASONABLE WX FOR THE EXTENDED PD.  SHARP TROF PROGGED TO
RMN ALG THE E COAST INTO SAT KEEPING RGN UNDER INFLUENCE OF COOL
NWLY FLOW.  TEMPS BOTH THU AND FRI WL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 AS CDFNT
MOVES AS FAR S AS FL.  EVENTUALLY SFC HI WORK IN FM THE S OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WL MODERATE HI TEMPS INTO THE 50S THRU THE END OF THE
PD.  PRETTY MUCH SHOULD BE DRY DURG PD EXPCT LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH A WEAK BNDRY JUST TO THE N WARRANTS SML CHC POPS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.OH...NONE.
.PA...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...TK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
720 AM EST TUE NOV 8 2005

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-091030-
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-
ASHTABULA INLAND-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-
TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-
MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-
SOUTHERN ERIE-
526 AM EST TUE NOV 8 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS OHIO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT AND WENDESDAY...

LEZ142>149-162>169-091030-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
MAUMEE BAY OH TO RENO BEACH OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-GENEVA-ON-
THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
720 AM EST TUE NOV 8 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

GALES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED...