Ice Storm in Ohio, January 22, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
403 AM EST SAT JAN 22 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON TRACK OF SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO...INTO WESTERN PA THIS EVENING...BEFORE HANDING OFF TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW OFF OF THE MIDATLANTIC.  GOOD DEAL OF
OVERRUNNING PRECIP GOING INTO MOISTENING THE ATMOSPHERE AT THIS
POINT.  PLENTY OF VIRGA ON 88D TO START...ALTHOUGH CKB/EKN STARTED
TO RECEIVE -SN DURING THE PAST HOUR.

WARMER AIR NOT TOO FAR AWAY...SW FLOW DEVELOPING ON VAD PROFILE.
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING OFF WELL LAST EVENING...VALUES ARE RUNNING
A BIT LOW CURRENTLY.  USED ETA TEMPERATURE FIELD TO GENERATE WEATHER
GRIDS...STILL PRESENTS A WINTRY MIX WITH FZRA/PL FOR MOST AREAS THIS
MORNING...WITH MOSTLY SNOW IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.  STILL FORESEE
A PERIOD OF PLAIN RAIN FOR MOST AREAS SOUTH OF ADVISORY AT SOME
POINT LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GOING TO KEEP CURRENT
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES INTACT.  THINK PERRY/MORGAN COUNTIES MAY MORE
LIKELY SEE THE WARNING VERIFY WITH ICE ACCUMULATION RATHER THAN SNOW.

FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW H850 TEMPS TO BEGIN
A NOSEDIVE...AND EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BE BACK TO PURE SNOW BY 00Z.
VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
FURTHER ACCUMULATION IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.
ALSO EXPECT AN INCH OR TWO MOST AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
THERMAL TROUGH PASSAGE AROUND 09Z-12Z WILL ALLOW ACTIVITY TO BEGIN
TO WANE.

GENERALLY HELD TEMPERATURES AROUND MOS VALUES FOR TODAY...ALTHOUGH
WENT A BIT BELOW IN SPOTS.  WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT...UNDERCUT MOS BY 2-3 DEGREES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 303 AM EST SAT JAN 22 2005)

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

ONLY LOOKING AT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN DETAIL...WITH DEVELOPING STORM
IN SHORT TERM.

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL LIKELY IN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THE DECREASING TREND BY
AFTERNOON. LOWERED SOME MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES A BIT.

ALSO...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND LESS CLOUDS...FIGURING ON SOME
BELOW ZERO READINGS SUNDAY NIGHT IN SNOW COVERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
SO LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DO APPEAR AROUND THE CORNER...FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1237 AM EST SAT JAN 22 2005)

AVIATION (06Z TO 06Z)...

HARDEST TIME PERIODS TO TIME/FIGURE ARE NOW THRU 18Z.

INCREASING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW 06Z-12Z.

INITIAL VORT MAX MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HAVE SNOW REACH GROUND
CKB-EKN VCNTY 08-10Z.

STRONG LOW LEVEL WARMING SURGES UP WRN SLOPES...HAVE NO
OR VERY SHORT PERIOD OF ANY FLAKES AT HTS/CRW BEFORE MAINLY RAIN
12-17Z.  BKW WILL STAY MIXTURE OF LIGHT SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN UNTIL
WINDS VEER TO SW AROUND 16-17Z AND BEFORE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR.

LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO WSW THEN VEER TO NW 18Z-00Z WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AND COLDER AIR QUICKLY MOVG S.  CEILING MAY BE LIFTING BY
03-06Z PKB-HTS REGION IN COLDER AIR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 825 PM EST FRI JAN 21 2005)

SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...

COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST THIS EVENING. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD IN BRINGING
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP INTO MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS AFTER 2 AM. NO
CHANGES TO CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES. ONLY CHANGE MADE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT UPDATE WAS TO LOWER TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES THIS
EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...ALONG WITH THE SNOW
COVER...HAVE ALLOWED THE TEMPERATURE TO DROP FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RAPIDLY RECOVER BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 114 PM EST FRI JAN 21 2005)

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

ON TUESDAY...CWA IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.  A
WEAK SYSTEM WILL STAY PRIMARILY TO OUR NORTH WITH THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS AS
THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S AS
GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD
SEE RAIN...EXCEPT IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THEY COULD SEE A MIX.
COLDER AIR BEHIND FRONT WILL CHANCE ANY PRECIP BACK TO SNOW BRIEFLY
BEFORE ENDING.

A DRY SCENARIO WILL SET UP FOR THURSDAY TO FRIDAY...WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR WVZ038-WVZ046-WVZ047 FROM 5 AM SATURDAY
     UNTIL 5 AM SUNDAY.
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WVZ020-WVZ028-WVZ029-WVZ030-WVZ031-
     WVZ032-WVZ035-WVZ036-WVZ037-WVZ039-WVZ040 FROM 5 AM
     SATURDAY UNTIL 5 AM SUNDAY.
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WVZ009-WVZ010-WVZ011-WVZ017-
     WVZ019 UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY.
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR OHZ066-OHZ067 UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY.
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OHZ075-OHZ076-OHZ083-OHZ084-OHZ085
     UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...CL