Tornado in North Carolina, July 7, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
344 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF THIS AFTERNOON)...
NEW TORNADO WATCH FORTHCOMING TO INCLUDE COUNTIES OF FORMER
TORNADO WATCH IN ADDITION TO ANSON AND WAKE COUNTIES. THE WATCH
SHOULD BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM. ZONE FORECASTS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
DELAYED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEW WATCH.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 315 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005)

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
PLAN TO CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH AS IS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
NIGHT AND JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  MSAS AGREEING WITH THE GFS FORECAST
OF INCREASING THETA-E ONGOING OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES...AHEAD OF
BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING SLOWLY EAST INTO THAT AREA.  COMBINED
WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...STRONG UVV...HIGH K INDICES...AND GOOD
INFLOW INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH...APPEARS PRUDENT TO CONTINUE
THE FLOOD WATCH DESPITE THE FACT THAT...FOR MOST OF THE DAY UNTIL
RECENTLY...MANY OF THE AREAS IN THE WATCH HAVE BEEN DRY.  THAT COULD
CHANGE QUICKLY GIVEN EXPECTED RAINFALL RATES THROUGH THE EVENING.
REFERENCE SATELLITE PRECIP ESTIMATES FROM NESDIS.  IN ADDITION TO
THE FLOOD THREAT...UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH LIFTED INDICES
FROM -4C TO -6C.  WITH AVAILABLE HELICITY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG A
SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN ZONES...TORNADIC POTENTIAL REMAINS
AS PER TORNADO WATCHES ALREADY ISSUED FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA.  IMPRESSIVE THAT CONVECTIVE BANDS EXTEND INTO NORTH
CAROLINA ALL THE WAY FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA.

ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT ON SOME OF THE DETAILS...BOTH THE NAM
AND THE GFS GENERALLY AGREE ON CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT THIS
EVENING WANING LATE TONIGHT.  HELD ON TO A RESIDUAL CHANCE LATE AS
THE REMNANTS OF CINDY MOVE NORTHEAST AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINS BEHIND...BUT GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS GROW INCREASINGLY STABLE
LATE TONIGHT AND AS THE LATE NIGHT HOURS APPROACH ANY REMAINING
SHOWERS SHOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO EASTERNMOST ZONES.  FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...STRONGEST 850MB WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE COAST
AND THE HIGHER MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.  MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING MAINLY OVER EASTERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY AND LIFT PREVAILING IN EASTERN ZONES...AND EAST FROM
THERE.  OPTED TO CONFINE SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON CENTRAL AND EAST.

NAM AND GFS START TO DIVERGE MORE AND MORE BEYOND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
DENNIS ENCROACHES ON FLORIDA AND THE GULF.  BASED ON ITS BETTER
TRACK RECORD OF LATE...GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE GFS.  AXIS OF LIFT AND
MOISTURE LIE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...AND
CONTINUES JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OR INTO SOUTHERN ZONES
SATURDAY.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS TEND TO BE DRY AND STABLE...BUT WILL
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH ON SATURDAY...
INCREASING TO A CHANCE SUNDAY EXCEPT SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST OVER THE
NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE SUBSIDENCE IS FORECAST TO BE THE RULE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.

PLAN TO ISSUE ZONE FORECASTS RIGHT AROUND 4 PM TO APPROPRIATELY
HANDLE EARLIEST TORNADO WATCH...SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE THEN.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST OTHER THAN MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.  HOWEVER...VERY
UNCERTAIN EXTENDED PERIOD BASED THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK DENNIS
WILL TAKE. LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK SHIFTED DENNIS JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE
EAST...BRINGING IT THROUGH EASTERN MS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY. IF THIS HOLDS TRUE...WE WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN DENNIS
AND A STRONG UPPER LOW OFF OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH A SLIGHTLY WEAKER
UPPER RIDGE RESULTING IN LESS SUBSIDENCE TO CAP THE AREA. A WARM
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND...
DEPENDING ON WHAT DENNIS DOES...WILL STALL NORTH OF THE AREA FOR
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. RESULTING STRONG AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL NECESSITATE POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP POPS SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
FOR NOW. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM...BUT VEERING PROFILES WITH DECENT SPEED
SHEER AND BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY BE
CAUSE FOR CONCERN IF CURRENT PROGS TURN OUT TO HAVE MERIT.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR GUIDANCE...NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

AVIATION...
SCT TO BKN CLOUDS TWENTY-FIVE HUNDRED TO FOUR THOUSAND FEET.
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE CWA. THREAT OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE BOUNDARY MOVING
NORTH. CEILINGS LOWERING AOB ONE THOUSAND FEET AND VSBY AOB 3 MILES
IN STRATUS AND FOG 08/08-13Z. WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 KTS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT HIGHER IN TSTMS...AFTER
08/10Z WINDS SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FOR NCZ007-021>023-038-039-073-074-083 UNTIL 2 AM
FRIDAY.
TORNADO WATCH FOR NCZ007-008-021>025-038>040-073-074 UNTIL 4
PM THURSDAY.
TORNADO WATCH FOR NCZ009>011-026>028 UNTIL 10 PM THURSDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...DJF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
549 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-081000-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
549 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA TODAY. ASSOCIATED BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS AND URBAN DRAINAGES...
PARTICULARLY NORTHWEST INCLUDING THE TRIAD AREA...LATER TODAY
AND EARLY TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS
MORNING UNTIL 2 AM TONIGHT FOR THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THERE IS ALSO
A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES FROM THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER NETWORK ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 11 AM TODAY UNTIL
EARLY TONIGHT.

RFG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
354 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEWISVILLE              36.09N 80.40W
07/07/2005                   FORSYTH            NC   PUBLIC

            NC DOT REPORTED NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN THE WESTERN PART
            OF THE COUNTY.

&&

MWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
357 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TOBACCOVILLE            36.23N 80.35W
07/07/2005                   FORSYTH            NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES REPORTED DOWN ALONG NC-67 IN TOBACCOVILLE.

&&

PWB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
407 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     TORNADO          RURAL HALL              36.23N 80.29W
07/07/2005                   FORSYTH            NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TORNADO REPORTED BY EMS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT AT HIGHWAY 52
            AND WESTINGHOUSE ROAD.

&&

ORROCK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
413 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

NCZ073-074-083-084-072200-
STANLY-MONTGOMERY-ANSON-RICHMOND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALBEMARLE...TROY...WADESBORO...
ROCKINGHAM
413 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD TEH SOUTHERN PIEDMONT OF
CENTRAL NOIRTH CAROLINA...

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO SECTIONS OF
STANLY...ANSON...MONTGOMERY AND RICHMOND COUNTIES BETWEEN 430 AND
6 PM. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. IN ADDITION...THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN LESS THAN
AN HOUR. THIS WILL RESULT IN BRIEF FLOODING OF STREETS AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

PEOPLE IN THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT NEED TO REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPDILY
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH 6 PM. BE READY TO TAKE QUICK
ACTION IF A WARNING ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
514 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0508 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     4 W GREENSBORO          36.08N 79.90W
07/07/2005                   GUILFORD           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FUNNEL CLOUD AT HIGHWAY 68 AT US-421 MOVING NE

&&

PWB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
520 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 NE TUNGSTEN           36.52N 78.46W
07/07/2005                   VANCE              NC   PUBLIC

            FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED BY PUBLIC ALONG HIGHWAY 39 AT THE
            VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER MOVING NE

&&

PWB