Tornado in North Carolina, July 7, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
904 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
UPDATED GRIDS AND WILL UPDATE ZFP TO REFLECT CANCELLATION OF
TORNADO WATCH 617 AND ISSUANCE OF WATCH 618.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 357 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005)

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
6Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF CINDY OVER CENTRAL AL WITH A TMB
FEATURE RUNNING FROM KMCN NE TO KAGS AND KCAE. NE SFC FLOW REMAINS
OVER THE CWA NORTH OF THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. CAPES ALONG
MOISTURE BOUNDARY POOLING TO 500-1000 J/KG. SREF AND GFS SHOW THAT
0-1 KM HELICITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE FA THROUGH 12Z TO 200-300
M2/S2. AS CINDY APPROACHES...MOISTURE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FURTHER
INTO THE FA...INCREASING THE TOR THREAT THIS MORNING EAST OF THE
MTNS. TORNADO WATCH 617 HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 10 AM.

WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ROTATING INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS...RAINFALL RATES SHOULD ACCELERATE THIS MORNING. GFS IS
DEFINITELY THE MODEL OF CHOICE AS IT HAS PREFERRED TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF MAIN FEATURES...COULD BE A TAD TOO SLOW THOUGH. KGSP
VAD SHOWS UPSLOPE FLOW IMPROVING BETWEEN 3-5 KFT OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL VOLUME SCANS. RADAR ESTIMATES THAT HEAVIER CELLS PRODUCE
1-2 AN HOUR. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM DEVELOP A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AFTER
12Z. W/V CONFIRMS THAT LIFT IS BEGINNING OVER EASTERN TN. THE RESULT
COULD BE A SHARP LINE FROM HEAVY RAINFALL TO LIGHT AMOUNTS.
NEVERTHELESS...EVERY INCH OF THE FA WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND
AT LEAST ONE PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TODAY. WILL LEAVE FLOOD WATCH IN
PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE FA UNTIL 6 AM FRI. EXPECT BY FRI
MORNING...REPORTS OF 4-5 WILL BE COMMON IN THE MTNS...WITH AROUND
AN INCH OVER THE EXTREME EAST.

CONDITIONS WILL START TO DRY TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW PULL
NE...LEAVING THE FA IN DRY SLOT AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. WILL REDUCE POPS
TO CHC AROUND MIDNIGHT...SCHC JUST ALONG THE TN LINE BY 10Z FRI.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FRI AND SAT AM. BY SAT
AFTERNOON...COASTAL FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT WEST AS HURCN DENNIS
MOVES OFF THE WEST COAST OF FL. AS DENNIS MOVE NORTH...TROPICAL
PLUME SHOULD MOVE OVER THE FA. WITH LIS COOLING ALONG THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT COVERAGE TO ADVANCE FURTHER WEST.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
FA REMAINS UNDER A STATIONARY FRONT AS DENNIS MOVES ON SHORE EARLY
IN THE WEEK. WILL INCREASE SKY AND POPS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY WEEK. GFS INDICATES THAT THE CORE OF DENNIS WILL REMAIN
WELL WEST OF THE FA. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HANDLE DETAILS AFTER MON.

AVIATION...
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE LOWERING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH 12Z AS SURFACE LOW OVER GA APPROACHES SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.  UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL AND RESULT IN
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. MVFR
CONDITIONS VCNTY GSP... AND... AND AVL WILL LOWER TO PERIODIC IFR
AROUND SUNRISE AND CONTINUE UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 20Z.  THEREAFTER...
VSBY WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE 3 MI AND CIG WILL BECOME OVERCAST AROUND
4K FT.  CIG AND VSBY CLT AND HKY WILL LOWER BY SUNRISE TO AROUND 3K
FT WITH VSBY 3-5 MI IN SHOWERS AND FOG THEN IMPROVE TO VFR BY 23Z.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END AS CIGS AND VSBYS IMPROVE FROM WEST TO
EAST FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS AREA DURING DAY
REACHING VA AFT 00Z.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLOOD WATCH FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029 UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY.
NC...FLOOD WATCH FOR NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082 UNTIL 6 AM
     FRIDAY.
SC...FLOOD WATCH FOR SCZ001>014-019 UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
607 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-081015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
607 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TODAY. RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO 1 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THIS RAINFALL COULD
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES. THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING...A FEW STORMS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS MAY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
HURRICANE DENNIS WILL APPROACH THE GULF COAST STATES THIS
WEEKEND...AND IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ON SUNDAY. AS DENNIS
APPROACHES...A SLOW MOVING FRONT SHOULD SLIDE WEST OVER THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS. THIS FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WORK WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

NED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
909 AM EDT THU JUL 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CARNESVILLE             34.37N 83.23W
07/07/2005                   FRANKLIN           GA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SCATTERED TREES DOWN COUNTY WIDE DUE TO COMBINATION OF
            WINDS AND SATURATED SOIL.

0530 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CARNESVILLE             34.37N 83.23W
07/07/2005                   FRANKLIN           GA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            NUMEROUS ROADS FLOODED MAINLY AT CREEK CROSSINGS, SOME
            WASHED OUT.

&&

TJB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
955 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

SCZ007-071455-
SPARTANBURG-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SPARTANBURG
955 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT SOUTHERN SPARTANBURG COUNTY THROUGH
1100 AM...

AT 951 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH ACROSS THE GREENVILLE AND
SPARTANBURG COUNTY BORDER SOUTH OF GREER. THIS THUNDERSTORM IS
EXHIBITING SOME ROTATION ALOFT...AND A TORNADO COULD DEVELOP. THIS
THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS FROM GREER TO WELLFORD TO
SPARTANBURG THROUGH 11 AM. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL MONITOR
THIS THUNDERSTORM CLOSELY...AND A TORNADO WARNING WILL BE ISSUED IF
RADAR INDICATES STRENGTHENING ROTATION...OR IF A TORNADO TOUCHDOWN IS
REPORTED.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1144 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

NCZ068-071645-
CLEVELAND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SHELBY
1144 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT CLEVELAND COUNTY THROUGH 1
PM...

AT 1139 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH ACROSS THE BORDER
BETWEEN RUTHERFORD AND CLEVELAND COUNTY...NORTHWEST OF
POLKVILLE. THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AT THE RATE OF ONE INCH
PER HOUR. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES TO DEVELOP...AND
THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN CASE A
TORNADO WARNING IS NEEDED.

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1148 AM EDT THU JUL 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ELLENBORO               35.33N 81.76W
07/07/2005                   RUTHERFORD         NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES DOWN IN ELLENBORO IN EAST PART OF COUNTY NEAR
            CLEVELAND COUNTY LINE.

&&

TJB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1237 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

NCZ034-035-055-056-069-070-071730-
ALEXANDER-BURKE NC-CALDWELL-CATAWBA-GASTON-LINCOLN NC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GASTONIA...HICKORY...LINCOLNTON...MORGANTON
1237 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE AREA FROM LENOIR TO
NEWTON TO GASTONIA THROUGH 130 PM...

AT 1232 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA FOOTHILLS TO THE PIEDMONT WEST OF GASTONIA. THIS LINE
WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE
LIKELY ALONG THIS LINE...AND AREAS FROM LENOIR TO NEWTON TO
GASTONIA WILL BE AFFECTED THROUGH 130 PM. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
TORNADOES TO FORM ALONG THIS LINE.

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
101 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 NE HICKORY            35.77N 81.29W
07/07/2005                   CATAWBA            NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            FUNNEL CLOUD SPOTTED NEAR SECTION HOUSE ROAD AND 4TH
            AVENUE.

&&

BURRUS