Tornado in North Carolina, July 7, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
904 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
UPDATED GRIDS AND WILL UPDATE ZFP TO REFLECT CANCELLATION OF
TORNADO WATCH 617 AND ISSUANCE OF WATCH 618.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 357 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005)

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
6Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF CINDY OVER CENTRAL AL WITH A TMB
FEATURE RUNNING FROM KMCN NE TO KAGS AND KCAE. NE SFC FLOW REMAINS
OVER THE CWA NORTH OF THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. CAPES ALONG
MOISTURE BOUNDARY POOLING TO 500-1000 J/KG. SREF AND GFS SHOW THAT
0-1 KM HELICITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE FA THROUGH 12Z TO 200-300
M2/S2. AS CINDY APPROACHES...MOISTURE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FURTHER
INTO THE FA...INCREASING THE TOR THREAT THIS MORNING EAST OF THE
MTNS. TORNADO WATCH 617 HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 10 AM.

WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ROTATING INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS...RAINFALL RATES SHOULD ACCELERATE THIS MORNING. GFS IS
DEFINITELY THE MODEL OF CHOICE AS IT HAS PREFERRED TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF MAIN FEATURES...COULD BE A TAD TOO SLOW THOUGH. KGSP
VAD SHOWS UPSLOPE FLOW IMPROVING BETWEEN 3-5 KFT OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL VOLUME SCANS. RADAR ESTIMATES THAT HEAVIER CELLS PRODUCE
1-2 AN HOUR. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM DEVELOP A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AFTER
12Z. W/V CONFIRMS THAT LIFT IS BEGINNING OVER EASTERN TN. THE RESULT
COULD BE A SHARP LINE FROM HEAVY RAINFALL TO LIGHT AMOUNTS.
NEVERTHELESS...EVERY INCH OF THE FA WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND
AT LEAST ONE PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TODAY. WILL LEAVE FLOOD WATCH IN
PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE FA UNTIL 6 AM FRI. EXPECT BY FRI
MORNING...REPORTS OF 4-5 WILL BE COMMON IN THE MTNS...WITH AROUND
AN INCH OVER THE EXTREME EAST.

CONDITIONS WILL START TO DRY TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW PULL
NE...LEAVING THE FA IN DRY SLOT AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. WILL REDUCE POPS
TO CHC AROUND MIDNIGHT...SCHC JUST ALONG THE TN LINE BY 10Z FRI.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FRI AND SAT AM. BY SAT
AFTERNOON...COASTAL FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT WEST AS HURCN DENNIS
MOVES OFF THE WEST COAST OF FL. AS DENNIS MOVE NORTH...TROPICAL
PLUME SHOULD MOVE OVER THE FA. WITH LIS COOLING ALONG THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT COVERAGE TO ADVANCE FURTHER WEST.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
FA REMAINS UNDER A STATIONARY FRONT AS DENNIS MOVES ON SHORE EARLY
IN THE WEEK. WILL INCREASE SKY AND POPS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY WEEK. GFS INDICATES THAT THE CORE OF DENNIS WILL REMAIN
WELL WEST OF THE FA. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HANDLE DETAILS AFTER MON.

AVIATION...
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE LOWERING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH 12Z AS SURFACE LOW OVER GA APPROACHES SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.  UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL AND RESULT IN
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. MVFR
CONDITIONS VCNTY GSP... AND... AND AVL WILL LOWER TO PERIODIC IFR
AROUND SUNRISE AND CONTINUE UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 20Z.  THEREAFTER...
VSBY WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE 3 MI AND CIG WILL BECOME OVERCAST AROUND
4K FT.  CIG AND VSBY CLT AND HKY WILL LOWER BY SUNRISE TO AROUND 3K
FT WITH VSBY 3-5 MI IN SHOWERS AND FOG THEN IMPROVE TO VFR BY 23Z.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END AS CIGS AND VSBYS IMPROVE FROM WEST TO
EAST FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS AREA DURING DAY
REACHING VA AFT 00Z.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLOOD WATCH FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029 UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY.
NC...FLOOD WATCH FOR NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082 UNTIL 6 AM
     FRIDAY.
SC...FLOOD WATCH FOR SCZ001>014-019 UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
607 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-081015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
607 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TODAY. RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO 1 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THIS RAINFALL COULD
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES. THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING...A FEW STORMS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS MAY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
HURRICANE DENNIS WILL APPROACH THE GULF COAST STATES THIS
WEEKEND...AND IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ON SUNDAY. AS DENNIS
APPROACHES...A SLOW MOVING FRONT SHOULD SLIDE WEST OVER THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS. THIS FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WORK WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
536 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-066>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-071730-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-POLK-RUTHERFORD-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...
HARTWELL...ELBERTON...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY...
SALISBURY...COLUMBUS...RUTHERFORDTON...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...
GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE...GREENVILLE...
SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...
LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...GREENWOOD
536 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...

THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH CINDY WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY. AS
THE LOW APPROACHES...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG STORMS. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF THE STRONG STORMS SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF A
LINE FROM CLEMSON NORTHEAST TO HICKORY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS LATE THIS EVENING, AND THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL END.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATER
UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
717 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

NCZ069-070-071202-
GASTON-LINCOLN NC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GASTONIA...LINCOLNTON
717 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT GASTON AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...

AT 712 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM JUST EAST OF FALLSTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EXTREME NORTHWEST GASTON COUNTY...AND
THE AREA FROM CROUSE TO LINCOLNTON THROUGH 8 AM. A TORNADO WARNING
FOR THIS THUNDERSTORM WAS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FOR CLEVELAND COUNTY...
BUT NO TORNADOES HAVE BEEN CONFIRMED. THE THUNDERSTORM CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT SOME ROTATION ALOFT...BUT A TORNADO IS NOT INDICATED AT THIS
TIME. IF A TORNADO IS OBSERVED OR INDICATED BY RADAR...A TORNADO
WARNING WILL BE ISSUED. BE PREPARED TO TAKE COVER IN AN INTERIOR
ROOM IF A TORNADO IS OBSERVED OR IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
752 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

NCZ035>037-056-057-071300-
ALEXANDER-CATAWBA-DAVIE-IREDELL-ROWAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HICKORY...MOCKSVILLE...SALISBURY...
STATESVILLE
752 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF NORTH
CAROLINA...

AT 748 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF
RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AT RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
MOST AFFECTED BY THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE AREA FROM NEWTON
TO CATAWBA THROUGH 9 AM.

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
909 AM EDT THU JUL 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CARNESVILLE             34.37N 83.23W
07/07/2005                   FRANKLIN           GA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SCATTERED TREES DOWN COUNTY WIDE DUE TO COMBINATION OF
            WINDS AND SATURATED SOIL.

0530 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CARNESVILLE             34.37N 83.23W
07/07/2005                   FRANKLIN           GA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            NUMEROUS ROADS FLOODED MAINLY AT CREEK CROSSINGS, SOME
            WASHED OUT.

&&

TJB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
955 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

SCZ007-071455-
SPARTANBURG-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SPARTANBURG
955 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT SOUTHERN SPARTANBURG COUNTY THROUGH
1100 AM...

AT 951 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH ACROSS THE GREENVILLE AND
SPARTANBURG COUNTY BORDER SOUTH OF GREER. THIS THUNDERSTORM IS
EXHIBITING SOME ROTATION ALOFT...AND A TORNADO COULD DEVELOP. THIS
THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS FROM GREER TO WELLFORD TO
SPARTANBURG THROUGH 11 AM. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL MONITOR
THIS THUNDERSTORM CLOSELY...AND A TORNADO WARNING WILL BE ISSUED IF
RADAR INDICATES STRENGTHENING ROTATION...OR IF A TORNADO TOUCHDOWN IS
REPORTED.

HG