Damaging Wind in North Carolina, July 7, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
136 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
BAND OF HEAVIER CONVECTION MOVING SLOWLY E. HAVE UPDATED FLOOD
WATCH AND TWEAKED POPS AND QPF TO REFLECT CHANGES. WILL ISSUE
UPDATED PRODUCTS SHORTLY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 904 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005)

SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
UPDATED GRIDS AND WILL UPDATE ZFP TO REFLECT CANCELLATION OF
TORNADO WATCH 617 AND ISSUANCE OF WATCH 618.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 357 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005)

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
6Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF CINDY OVER CENTRAL AL WITH A TMB
FEATURE RUNNING FROM KMCN NE TO KAGS AND KCAE. NE SFC FLOW REMAINS
OVER THE CWA NORTH OF THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. CAPES ALONG
MOISTURE BOUNDARY POOLING TO 500-1000 J/KG. SREF AND GFS SHOW THAT
0-1 KM HELICITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE FA THROUGH 12Z TO 200-300
M2/S2. AS CINDY APPROACHES...MOISTURE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FURTHER
INTO THE FA...INCREASING THE TOR THREAT THIS MORNING EAST OF THE
MTNS. TORNADO WATCH 617 HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 10 AM.

WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ROTATING INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS...RAINFALL RATES SHOULD ACCELERATE THIS MORNING. GFS IS
DEFINITELY THE MODEL OF CHOICE AS IT HAS PREFERRED TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF MAIN FEATURES...COULD BE A TAD TOO SLOW THOUGH. KGSP
VAD SHOWS UPSLOPE FLOW IMPROVING BETWEEN 3-5 KFT OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL VOLUME SCANS. RADAR ESTIMATES THAT HEAVIER CELLS PRODUCE
1-2 AN HOUR. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM DEVELOP A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AFTER
12Z. W/V CONFIRMS THAT LIFT IS BEGINNING OVER EASTERN TN. THE RESULT
COULD BE A SHARP LINE FROM HEAVY RAINFALL TO LIGHT AMOUNTS.
NEVERTHELESS...EVERY INCH OF THE FA WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND
AT LEAST ONE PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TODAY. WILL LEAVE FLOOD WATCH IN
PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE FA UNTIL 6 AM FRI. EXPECT BY FRI
MORNING...REPORTS OF 4-5 WILL BE COMMON IN THE MTNS...WITH AROUND
AN INCH OVER THE EXTREME EAST.

CONDITIONS WILL START TO DRY TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW PULL
NE...LEAVING THE FA IN DRY SLOT AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. WILL REDUCE POPS
TO CHC AROUND MIDNIGHT...SCHC JUST ALONG THE TN LINE BY 10Z FRI.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FRI AND SAT AM. BY SAT
AFTERNOON...COASTAL FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT WEST AS HURCN DENNIS
MOVES OFF THE WEST COAST OF FL. AS DENNIS MOVE NORTH...TROPICAL
PLUME SHOULD MOVE OVER THE FA. WITH LIS COOLING ALONG THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT COVERAGE TO ADVANCE FURTHER WEST.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
FA REMAINS UNDER A STATIONARY FRONT AS DENNIS MOVES ON SHORE EARLY
IN THE WEEK. WILL INCREASE SKY AND POPS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY WEEK. GFS INDICATES THAT THE CORE OF DENNIS WILL REMAIN
WELL WEST OF THE FA. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HANDLE DETAILS AFTER MON.

AVIATION...
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE LOWERING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH 12Z AS SURFACE LOW OVER GA APPROACHES SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.  UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL AND RESULT IN
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. MVFR
CONDITIONS VCNTY GSP... AND... AND AVL WILL LOWER TO PERIODIC IFR
AROUND SUNRISE AND CONTINUE UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 20Z.  THEREAFTER...
VSBY WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE 3 MI AND CIG WILL BECOME OVERCAST AROUND
4K FT.  CIG AND VSBY CLT AND HKY WILL LOWER BY SUNRISE TO AROUND 3K
FT WITH VSBY 3-5 MI IN SHOWERS AND FOG THEN IMPROVE TO VFR BY 23Z.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END AS CIGS AND VSBYS IMPROVE FROM WEST TO
EAST FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS AREA DURING DAY
REACHING VA AFT 00Z.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FLOOD WATCH FOR NCZ034>036-054>056-065>070 UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY.
SC...FLOOD WATCH FOR SCZ001>008-010 UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
607 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-081015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
607 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TODAY. RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO 1 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THIS RAINFALL COULD
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES. THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING...A FEW STORMS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS MAY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
HURRICANE DENNIS WILL APPROACH THE GULF COAST STATES THIS
WEEKEND...AND IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ON SUNDAY. AS DENNIS
APPROACHES...A SLOW MOVING FRONT SHOULD SLIDE WEST OVER THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS. THIS FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WORK WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1237 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

NCZ034-035-055-056-069-070-071730-
ALEXANDER-BURKE NC-CALDWELL-CATAWBA-GASTON-LINCOLN NC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GASTONIA...HICKORY...LINCOLNTON...MORGANTON
1237 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE AREA FROM LENOIR TO
NEWTON TO GASTONIA THROUGH 130 PM...

AT 1232 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA FOOTHILLS TO THE PIEDMONT WEST OF GASTONIA. THIS LINE
WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE
LIKELY ALONG THIS LINE...AND AREAS FROM LENOIR TO NEWTON TO
GASTONIA WILL BE AFFECTED THROUGH 130 PM. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
TORNADOES TO FORM ALONG THIS LINE.

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
101 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 NE HICKORY            35.77N 81.29W
07/07/2005                   CATAWBA            NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            FUNNEL CLOUD SPOTTED NEAR SECTION HOUSE ROAD AND 4TH
            AVENUE.

&&

BURRUS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
146 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MAIDEN                  35.58N 81.21W
07/07/2005                   CATAWBA            NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN MAIDEN. ESPECIALLY HARD HIT WERE
            BURNT LEAF ROAD AND BUD ARNDT ROAD.

&&

BURRUS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
158 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     TORNADO          MILLERSVILLE            35.86N 81.18W
07/07/2005                   ALEXANDER          NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN MILLERSVILLE AND
            WITTENBURG. ALSO MOBILE HOMES TURNED OVER ALONG HWY 16
            SOUTH OF TAYLORSVILLE IN WITTENBURG.

0130 PM     TORNADO          MILLERSVILLE            35.86N 81.18W
07/07/2005                   ALEXANDER          NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ROOF OFF A HOME AND ANOTHER HOME DESTROYED IN THE
            MILLERSVILLE COMMUNITY ALONG HWY 16.

&&

TJB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
215 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

NCZ069>072-082-SCZ009-014-072000-
CABARRUS-CHESTER-GASTON-LINCOLN NC-MECKLENBURG-UNION NC-YORK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLOTTE...CHESTER...CONCORD...GASTONIA...
LINCOLNTON...MONROE...ROCK HILL
215 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE CHARLOTTE
METRO AREA THROUGH 5 PM...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AT 20 MPH ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO
35 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AT
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.

CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO
PRODUCE TORNADOES AT ANY TIME. BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IN AN
INTERIOR ROOM OF A SUBSTANTIAL STRUCTURE IF ANY TORNADO WARNINGS
ARE ISSUED...OR A TORNADO IS OBSERVED.

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
218 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 AM     TORNADO          10 W ANDERSON           34.52N 82.82W
07/07/2005                   ANDERSON           SC   NEWSPAPER

            POSSIBLE TORNADO WITH BOATS DAMAGED AND ONE TOSSED 100
            YDS AT WESTERN CAROLINA SAILING CLUB OFF OF SR 187 ON
            LAKE HARTWELL.

&&

TJB