Flash Flood in North Carolina, July 4, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
325 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BLOSSOMING ON RADAR AT THIS HOUR APPEAR
TIED TO LOW LEVEL FORCING MECHANISMS OF SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND
WIND CONVERGENCE. ALTHOUGH NEITHER MECHANISM IS VERY STRONG...MOIST
SOUNDINGS EXHIBITING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES
REQUIRE VERY LITTLE LIFTING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS. THE POSSIBILITY OF
TERRAIN ANCHORING EXISTS IN THE SW MTNS...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS UNTIL INSTABILITY
AND UPSLOPE FLOW DIMINISH.

CONVECTION FORMING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...COULD ORGANIZE AND MAKE A RUN AT THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW GIVEN STEERING FLOW.
WESTERN MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THUS INCREASE AGAIN
TOWARD DAYBREAK. HIGHEST CHANCES THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW IN
WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS NEARER WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE AND MCS
DEBRIS. MID LEVEL DRYING WILL ALSO YIELD FAIRLY HIGH EQUIVALENT
POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES BY TUE AFTN...SO SEVERE WIND GUST
POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION.

SOUNDINGS ALSO FEATURE THE POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTED VSBY LATE
TONIGHT GIVEN ONSET OF MID LEVEL DRYING AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
INCREASE IN MIXING RATIO. WILL JUST MENTION PATCHY FOG FOR NOW GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUD COVER...BUT VSBY TRENDS WILL NEED MONITORING.

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE SLOWER 12Z NAM INDICATES AN MCS TYPE SYSTEM LATE
TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. ETA BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR KCLT
HAVE CAPE MAXING OUT AT 01Z WED AROUND 1700 J/KG...WITH DECENT LOW
TO MID LEVEL LAPES RATES. HOWEVER...NOT A LOT OF UPPER DYNAMIC
SUPPORT AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND H5 DPVA LEVELS
LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY LOW. SO...BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
TO HIGH CHANCE TUESDAY EVENING. THICKNESS LEVELS MODIFY QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY AND SEE NO REASON FOR TEMPS NOT TO REACH GUIDANCE LEVELS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE 12Z GFS SEEMS TO BE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME WITH THE TROPICAL
SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATER PERIODS. THE MODEL
HAS THE REMNANT OF TD 3 SHOOTING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WELL AHEAD
THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK. ON SATURDAY...THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER
TROPICAL STORM INTO THE SOUTHEAST. OTHER MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
TROPICAL FEATURE OVER THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER NONE ARE AS ORGANIZED OR
BOLD AS THE GFS. ANYWAY...IN THE MEANTIME WILL GO WITH DGEX AND HPC
GUIDANCE WITH THE LONG RANGE PATTERN. THE 06Z DGEX KEEPS GENERAL
UPPER TROFFINESS OVER THE EAST COAST BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...A FALL LIKE SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS AND LOWERS THICKNESSES ACROSS THE CWA TO
THE LOWER 570S. MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED THROUGH THIS TIME AS WELL AND
HAVE KEPT POPS LOW TO SLIGHT. DGEX HAS ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEING
ROBBED FROM AN OFFSHORE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND A DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP THINGS PRETTY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
TWO MECHANISMS OF TSRA ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS
THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE SRN MTNS WILL
KEEP THE BEST CHANCES OF TSRA NEAR KAVL FROM 18Z TO 00Z...WITH VCTS
LIKELY DEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE UPSTATE FROM KAND TO KGSP
AT SOME POINT. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL ALSO FORCE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSRA FROM NEAR KCLT TO KHKY. MID LEVELS WILL
DRY SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT WITH A SLIGHLTY ENHANCED FOG POTENTIAL BY
DAYBREAK TUE...ESPECIALLY AT TERMINAL LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAIN
TODAY. RESIDUAL SHRA FROM UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT
COULD ALSO AFFECT KAVL BY DAYBREAK...BUT WITH LOW PROBABILITY AT
PRESENT.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR GAZ010 UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NCZ051>053-058-059-062>065 UNTIL
     MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HG/SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
600 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-051015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
600 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP TODAY. RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BECOME
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
449 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CLARKESVILLE            34.61N 83.52W
07/04/2005                   HABERSHAM          GA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            COUNTY REPORTS FLOODING OF DAISY CREEK IN CITY OF
            CLARKESVILLE.

0426 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ETOWAH                  35.32N 82.60W
07/04/2005                   HENDERSON          NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            COUNTY REPORTS FLOODING OF FOUNTAIN CREEK AT HEBRON ROAD.

&&

HG