Lightning Strike in Florida, July 4, 2005

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - WED)...
HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL INTENSIFY OVER
FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RESULT WILL BE DRIER CONDITIONS
WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ON THE EAST AND WEST
COASTS AND MERGE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PENINSULA. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ONLY BE 30 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
FEWER CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 90S.

.LONG TERM (WED NIGHT - SUN)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA...FROM THE ATLANTIC WESTWARD TO THE GULF...ALTHOUGH
THIS WEAKENS SOME DURING THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. AND ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE FROM THE ATLANTIC TO FL WITH
A SEPARATE BUBBLE HIGH CENTER OVER THE GULF AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH AND WEST AS A TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE SE. WILL BASE THIS FORECAST ON THE PREMISE OF
THIS WAVE MOVING BY TO THE SOUTH AS A WAVE...LATEST GFS HAS A
CLOSED LOW MOVING WEST THROUGH THE FL STRAITS FOR THE WEEKEND WHILE
THE ECMWF KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE ON A MORE SOUTHERLY AND FASTER TRACK...
AS THE DGEX WOULD ALSO INDICATE. SO FOR THE TIME BEING HAVE BROUGHT
THE WINDS TO MORE EASTERLY AND CONTINUE A TREND OF DECREASING POPS
IN THE MORNING AND INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS OR CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 092/077 093/076 091 3232
FMY 094/076 094/074 093 3232
GIF 094/076 095/075 094 3232
SRQ 091/077 092/078 089 3232
BKV 093/074 093/073 091 3232

&&

SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...RKR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
532 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2005

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-031531-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
532 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INTERIOR AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.  MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR STANDING
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS ANY FLOODED ROADWAYS WHERE
THE DEPTH OF THE WATER IS UNKNOWN.

WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG
APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS BEFORE
USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)