Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, July 4, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
141 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2005

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...
CU ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER NE CO WHERE NAM/GFS BOTH FORECAST
CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
NE CO INTO SW KS AS OF 16Z APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME STATIONARY, 7H
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND 925-85H THTA-E AXIS ALL SUPPORT THE NAM IDEA
THAT CONVECTION WILL TRACK SE INTO OUR CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HAVE THEREFORE FOLLOWED TIMING OF NAM WITH PCPN SPREADING
INTO OUR NW CWA AFTER SUNSET...THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA THROUGH 12Z. PCPN EXITING OUR SRN CWA BETWEEN 12-15Z. SE LOW
LVL FLOW AND NW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS UNCHANGED ON TUESDAY WITH
MOISTURE AND INSTAB POINTING TO PCPN IN OUR WESTERN CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT. NAM/GFS DIFFER ON LOCATION OF INITIATION SO CONFIDENCE ON
LOCATION IS LOWER TOMORROW THAN THIS EVENING SO WILL NOT GET TOO
DETAILED IN THE GRIDS.

AS FOR TEMPS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TEMPS ON TUESDAY SIMILAR TO
TODAY, MAYBE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE WEST IF WE DO SEE THE RAIN AND
CLOUDS. 8H TEMPS DO WARM BETWEEN 00Z WED TO 00Z THU BUT
BASE ON E/SE UPSLOPE FLOW AND MIXING LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 80S.

DAYS 3-7...
ALL THE SHORT RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AS WELL AS THE DIAGNOSTICS
FROM THE CDC WEB SITE SUPPORT THE CHANGE TO A HIGHER AMPLITUDE
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WITH A MEAN WESTERN UPPER RIDGE AND EASTERN
UPPER TROUGH. THAT WILL ESTABLISH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE COMING FORECAST PERIOD. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE SHORT WAVES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AND HAVE LITTLE FAITH IN ANY OF THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THIS SCALE. CERTAINLY THERE WILL BE LATE DAY
CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
BUT STEERING OF THESE SYSTEMS IS HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE. AS A RESULT
HAVE OPTED NOT TO CHANGE MUCH IN THE GOING FORECAST FOR FEAR I WOULD
BE TAKING THINGS IN THE WRONG DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES LOOK ABOUT
RIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  84  64  87 /  60  60  30  10
GCK  62  81  63  87 /  70  60  50  10
EHA  60  82  65  90 /  50  30  50  20
LBL  61  82  63  88 /  50  40  50  20
HYS  61  84  62  88 /  30  20  20  10
P28  62  85  64  90 /  30  30  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.KS...NONE.

&&

BURGERT/JOHNSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
448 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2005

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-051000-
BARBER-CLARK-COMANCHE-EDWARDS-ELLIS-FINNEY-FORD-GRANT-GRAY-HAMILTON-
HASKELL-HODGEMAN-KEARNY-KIOWA-LANE-MEADE-MORTON-NESS-PAWNEE-PRATT-
RUSH-SCOTT-SEWARD-STAFFORD-STANTON-STEVENS-TREGO-
448 AM CDT (348 AM MDT) MON JUL 4 2005

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT PRIMARILY
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM GARDEN CITY TO MEADE. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HAIL UP TO
ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.

A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY. MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER
FAR WESTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO BENEATH COOL, NORTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON, PROVIDING A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF EASTERN COLORADO. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ORGANIZE INTO A
CLUSTER THAT WILL MOVE INTO KANSAS BY EARLY TONIGHT. THE DEEP WIND
SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH WINDS WITH THE
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 700 PM FROM LAKIN TO HUGOTON. SPOTTERS
MAY BE NEEDED SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM GARDEN CITY TO MEADE AFTER 900
PM.

UMSCHEID

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
501 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2005

KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-084>088-050500-
CLARK-FINNEY-FORD-GRANT-GRAY-HAMILTON-HASKELL-HODGEMAN-KEARNY-LANE-
MEADE-MORTON-NESS-SCOTT-SEWARD-STANTON-STEVENS-TREGO-
501 PM CDT (401 PM MDT) MON JUL 4 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #601 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING KANSAS COUNTIES...

CLARK...FINNEY...FORD...GRANT...GRAY...HAMILTON...HASKELL...
HODGEMAN...KEARNY...LANE...MEADE...MORTON...NESS...SCOTT...SEWARD...
STANTON...STEVENS...TREGO.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 65
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.

LACY