Hail in North Carolina, August 3, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
118 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
ISOLD CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER MTNS AND FOOTHILLS N AND NE OF
CWA. WILL UPDATE TO ADD ISOLD SHWRS AND TSTMS TO MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 1026 AM EDT WED AUG 3 2005)

SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER AREA WHILE THICKNESS SLOWLY INCREASES.
TEMPERATURES WARMED A BIT MORE QUICKLY IN SOME AREAS THIS MORNING
..OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. TWEAKED WINDS...HOURLY TEMPS...
DEW POINTS AND RH. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 243 AM EDT WED AUG 3 2005)

SHORT TERM (TODAY)...
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH TO SINK S OF AREA TODAY WITH HEIGHTS
RISING FROM N. WEAK/COMPLEX SURFACE HIGH TO REMAIN OVER AREA...WITH
LIGHT VARIABLE WIND FIELD MUCH OF PACKAGE. EXPECT WARMING TREND TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WED...BUT STAYED ON CONSERVATIVE COOLER END OF
GUIDANCE AS RIDGING NOT TOO STRONG OVER AREA. TEMPERATURES RISE A
COUPLE OF DEREES TODAY OVER YESTERDAY...THEN ANOTERH TWO DEGREES OR
SO THU...THEN A DEGREE OR SO COOLER FRI THAN THU AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INVADE/THICKEN FROM N IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT.
MODEL GUIDACNE POPS VERLY LOW ACROSS AREA TODAY...BUT NAM HAS RATHER
HIGH INSTABLILITY IN NE CORNER...HKY/SVH/CLT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT WEAK CAP FORMING AT 650 MB WILL BE TOO LITTLE/TOO LATE
TO STOP ANYTHING THAT GETS GOING...IF IT GETS GOING. WILL REORIENT
POPS TODAY...PLACING SLIGHT CHANCE IN NE CORNER...WITH 10 TO 12 PCT
REST. INSTABILITY EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE I-85 CORRIDOR THU...AND POPS
CLIMB INTO MID TEENS. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE EVERYWHERE THU
AFTERNOON. BY FRI MODELS INCREASE MOISTURE IN S FLOW AHEAD OF
FRONT...AND WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS ALL BUT SE...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE
WILL SUFFICE. WILL CARRY FOG EACH NIGHT/MORNING WHERE WIND AND DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS SUPPORT IT.

LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST STARTS WITH LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH
ALONG EAST...AND FRONT STALLED NW OF AREA. UPPER TROUGH FLATTNES
OUT RESULTING IN ZONAL FLOW BY SUN. SURFACE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH AREA LEFT IN WARM/HUMID AIR MASS. EXPECT
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND POPS.

AVIATION...
CIRRUS BENEATH THE UPPER JET AXIS FROM KAND TO KCLT WILL PROVIDE FEW
TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW RADIATION FOG TO DEVELOP. MAINLY MVFR
VISIBILITY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR A QUICK TRANSITION TO
IFR CIG/VSBY AT KAVL BEFORE DAYBREAK.

MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NC PIEDMONT FROM KHKY TO KCLT. HOWEVER...LITTLE OR NO TRIGGER
FOR TSRA CAN BE FOUND IN LIGHT ENE FLOW UNDER THE RIDGE THROUGH
EVENING. WILL FEATURE CB CLOUD TYPE AT KCLT AFTER 18Z. IF ONE
THUNDERSTORM FORMS...HOWEVER...SEVERAL COULD FOLLOW AND PRODUCE A
WIND GUST AND HAIL THREAT GIVEN THE PROFILES.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
536 AM EDT WED AUG 3 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-040945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
536 AM EDT WED AUG 3 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
NORTH CAROLINA...FROM HICKORY...TO STATESVILLE...TO CHARLOTTE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
300 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2005

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-034-048>055-058-059-062>067-032100-
AVERY-BUNCOMBE-BURKE NC-CALDWELL-GRAHAM-HABERSHAM-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-
MACON NC-MADISON NC-MCDOWELL-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-POLK NC-
RABUN-RUTHERFORD-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SWAIN-TRANSYLVANIA-YANCEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHEVILLE...BREVARD...CHEROKEE...
CLARKESVILLE...CLAYTON...FRANKLIN...HENDERSONVILLE...MARION...
MORGANTON...NEWLAND...RUTHERFORDTON...SPRUCE PINE...SYLVA...TRYON...
WAYNESVILLE
300 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2005

...SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...

AT 255 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS WAS
BETWEEN NEWLAND AND WEAVERVILLE...BUT THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO
DEVELOPING ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER IN SWAIN COUNTY...AND ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS BETWEEN TUCKASEGEE AND FRANKLIN. THE STORMS
WERE DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 5 MPH.

RAINFALL WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY IN ANY LOCATION AFFECTED BY A
SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON. A QUICK INCH OF RAINFALL COULD
OCCUR...AND A FEW LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE AS MUCH AS TWO INCHES OF
RAIN. LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND IN POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS...CAN BE EXPECTED WHEREVER THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. RAPID RISES ON
SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL.

BY LATE AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS.
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
SITUATION. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE
MEDIA SOURCE...FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

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