Hail and Damaging Wind in Nebraska, August 3, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
302 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2005

...TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MAIN CONCERN...

.DISCUSSION...
PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROF EXTENDS FROM KYKN TO NEAR KONL TO KLBF.  THE
MAIN FRONT STILL IS BACK ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.  THE FRONT
WILL SLIDE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA BY MIDNIGHT.  IT
WILL DRAG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.  WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
MOISTENING UP THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO GET SIGNIFICANT
RAIN.  THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA WHERE
DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 70.  THIS IS ALSO THE LOCATION WHERE LAPS SFC
CAPES EXCEED 3000 J/KG.  THEREFORE HAVE INTRODUCED 60 PERCENT POPS
FOR THIS EVENING IN THAT AREA AND 50 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT DROPS INTO SOUTHERN KS
THURSDAY...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A SMALL AREA OF 20 POPS IN THE
FAR SOUTHWEST.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TOMORROW TO ONLY CLIMB INTO THE
70S TO AROUND 80.

THE COOL DOWN IS SHORT LIVED AS UPPER RIDGE REDEVELOPS BRINGING
WARM AIR BACK INTO THE AREA BY SAT AND SUN. RIDGE REMAINS STRONG
THROUGH NEXT WED WHEN A TROF SWINGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WITH
SOUTHWEST MONSOON FLOW INTO THE AREA. BY THE TIME THE GULF OPENS
UP...THE FRONT GENERALLY MOVES EAST OF THE CWA SO THE CHANCES OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS IS MINIMAL.  THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE
EXTENDED DRY FOR NOW.

&&

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

DDB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
353 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2005

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-041045-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
353 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2005 /253 PM MDT WED AUG 3 2005/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER WILL
CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...A
FAIRLY STRONG JET STREAM WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A LINE OR
COMPLEX OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WOULD ALSO
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 IN THE MORNING.
BEYOND THURSDAY MORNING...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO RELAY SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE.

JMC