Damaging Wind in North Carolina, April 22, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
321 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
MCS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWFA ATTM. SFC FLOW AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM IS STRENGTHENING AND BAKCING WITH DWTPS RAPIDLY
RECOVERING INTO THE LOWER 60S. SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO CHUG EAST
PRODUCING PLENTY OF DAMAING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...AND THERE MAY
EVEN BE A TORNADO OR TWO ASSOCIATED WITH A MESO LOW THAT HAS FROMED
OVER THE WESTERN UPSTATE. ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS THE CWFA...THE
QUESTION BECOMES WHAT TO DO ABOUT THE AS YET NON-EXISTANT SECOND MCS
WE ARE EXPECTEING.

NAM AND RUC BOTH SHOW CONSIDERABLE DESTABLIZATION DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS ACROSS ERN TN/KY SOUTH INTO AL/GA AHEAD OF THE SFC
FRONT UNDER THE STRONG H5 LOW CURRENTLY OVER SE MO. IF THE SFC
CONVERGENCE STRENGHTENS AS THE MODELS ADVERTISE...THEN WE SHOULD SEE
ANOTHER SYSTEM AS FORMIDDABLE AS THE CURRENT ONE. IN FACT...EHI/S
ARE HIGHER WITH TONIGHTS EXPECTED SYSTEM AS FLOW BACKS STRONGLY
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SFC LOW THAT PASSES TO OUR N. FOR NOW WL KEEP
LIKLEY POPS IN THE ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS TIMING IS NOT A SURE
BET...BUT THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF MORE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
DOES LOOK VERY PROBABLE.

AS THE STRONG UPPER LOW CONSOLIDATES OVER OHIO SAT...NW FLOW AND
MUCH COLDER AIR INVADE. H8 TEMPS WL FALL TO AROUND -8 DEG C OVER
MUCH OF THE MTNS SAT NGHT. TEMPS WL FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON SAT OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN...AND SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW WL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE
IN THE DAY. SAT NGHT 1000-500 MB LAYER RH VALUES INCREASE TO OVER
70% MOST OF THE NGHT...AND NW FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND 35 KTS WITH
VERY LOW HEIGHTS. ALL OF THIS POINTS TO A GOOD SHOT OF NW FLOW SNOW.
WL UP TOTALS A LITTLE...ESPECIALLY FROM MADISON CO N. WARM GROUND
SHOULD KEEP ACCUMS DOWN IN THE VALLEYS...BUT FALLING TEMPS SHOULD
RESULT IN SLUSH FREEZING INTO ICE WHICH WL MAKE FOR BAD TRAVEL. AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL. DO NOT PLAN TO
ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH ATTM.

WE WL...HOWEVER...ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR SAT NGHT FOR ALL OF THE
NC MTNS. OUTSIDE THE MTNS TEMPS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING...AND
THERE SHOULD BE ENUF MIXING TO PRECULDE MUCH FROST. HOWEVER...IT WL
NOT TAKE MUCH COOLER TEMPS FOR THE FOOTHILLS TO SEE A FREEZE.

SUN NGHT WL HAVE BETTER FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE POTENTIAL OUTSIDE
THE MTNS WITH ANOTHER FREEZE EXPECTED IN THE MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF THIS PACKAGE BEGINS WITH CONTINUED SUPPORT
FOR NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS FOR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. LATEST
GFS AND THE UKMET BRING ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY...AND INCREASED
FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS BORDERING TENNESSEE. THE AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED TO STILL BE UNUSUALLY COLD. CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE IN SOME FASHION OVER THE TENNESSEE BORDER MONDAY...
BUT PARTLY CLOUDY AND A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO ENSUE
ON MONDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES DIFFER QUITE A BIT WITH REGARD TO THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM...EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NITE PERIOD. GFS ADVERTISES ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH SHORTWAVE ACTION TO WARRANT CONVECTIVE
CHANCES...ALTHOUGH POPS WERE LOWERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE NORTH
CAROLINA PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. MODELS PROGGING A QUITE MOIST ALBEIT WEAKLY-FORCED
ATMOSPHERE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WE LEFT THESE
PERIODS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE NEARING THE WESTERN CWFA
AS NEXT THURSDAY NITE ENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
PERIODS OF IFR FOG WILL CONTINUE AT KAVL UNTIL SUNRISE.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL DEEPEN AND TRACK EAST ALONG A
STALLED FRONT. AS THE DEEPENING LOW APPROACHES...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. BY MID
MORNING...ALL TERMINALS SHOULD SEE A DECENT SW WIND (SOUTH AT
KAVL). WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS THE MIXING HEIGHT INCREASES IN THE
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH DWPTS IN THE
MID 50S OR BETTER. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO 900-1500 J/KG WITH VERY LITTLE CIN. ENOUGH FORCING TO
TRIGGER DEEP CONVECTION MAY ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AS ONE IN A SERIES
OF VORTS PASS OVER THE REGION. WILL HANDLE WITH A LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TEMPO FOR TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS. ANOTHER
WAVE OF TS IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AFTER 0Z SAT.
AT THIS POINT...WILL LIMIT MENTION OF TS AFTER 0Z SAT TO KAND.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FREEZE WATCH FOR NCZ033-048>054-058-059-062>065 FROM 6 PM
     SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
555 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-240955-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
555 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH NOON SUNDAY.
THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO USHER IN VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES...WITH FREEZING LOWS LIKELY TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS...AND THE
GEORGIA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS FROM RABUN COUNTY TO
NORTHERN GREENVILLE COUNTY. FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE WIND AND
FREEZE THREAT...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST URGENT WEATHER
MESSAGE...NPWGSP...FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG.

THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO PUSH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS LATE TODAY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH 1 TO 2
INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. FOR FURTHER DETAILS...SEE
THE LATEST URGENT WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...WSWGSP...FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS MAY BE AT RISK AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES THEN RECOVER THROUGH MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER STRONG STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GERAPETRITIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
318 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SENECA                  34.69N 82.96W
04/22/2005                   OCONEE             SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON HOUSE

&&

PTANNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
331 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DUNCAN                  34.94N 82.14W
04/22/2005                   SPARTANBURG        SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES

&&

PTANNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
333 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             6 N GREER               35.03N 82.23W
04/22/2005  0.50 INCH        GREENVILLE         SC   PUBLIC

            BETWEEN GREER AND NORTH GREENVILLE COLLEGE DIME SIZE HAIL

&&

PTANNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
344 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PICKENS                 34.88N 82.71W
04/22/2005                   PICKENS            SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROOF BLOWN OFF HOUSE SHADY GROVE ROAD

&&

PTANNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
345 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E SPARTANBURG         34.94N 81.91W
04/22/2005                   SPARTANBURG        SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON CAR POWER LINES DOWN EAST OF CITY WESTVEIW
            AREA

&&

PTANNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
406 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NINETY SIX              34.17N 82.02W
04/22/2005                   GREENWOOD          SC   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN ON OREGON FARM ROAD AND NORTH CHURCH STREET.
            BOTH TREES WERE BLOCKING ROADS.

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S GREENWOOD           34.18N 82.15W
04/22/2005                   GREENWOOD          SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON SOUTH SIDE OF GREENWOOD. SOME WERE BLOCKING
            ROADS.

&&

PTANNER