Hail and Damaging Winds in Indiana, April 22, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
215 PM EST THU APR 21 2005

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL NOT BE UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN WE
WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHERN MO
AND KY. OVERRUNNING WAS KEEPING SKIES CLOUDY OVER INDIANA. THESE
CLOUDS HAVE SLOWED TEMP INCREASE ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND N
PART OF THE CWA.

STATIONARY FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. PVA WILL
ALSO BE INCREASING. MODELS ARE CONSISTANT WITH BRINGING HIGH POPS IN
TONIGHT. WILL GO LIKELY STARTING LATE IN THE EVENING SW AND LATER
TONIGHT NE.

WRM FRONT WILL MOVE N OF INDIANA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD
AREA FROM WEST. BUFKIT HAS LI DROPPING TO BETTER THEN -5 WITH TOTAL
TOTALS 54. THE K-INDEX WILL INCREASE TO 30 WHICH IS MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND PSBL HEAVY RAIN. THE SW
INDEX IS 354 WHICH INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF SVR WEATHER. CAPE
INCREASES TO 2000 ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING SHEER.
THIS ALL INDICATES A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE AFTERNOON.
A LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE RELATIVE SMALL LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
AND CLOUD COVER. GUIDANCE DOES SHOW OVC SKIES EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD OF
BKN IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE ALL THAT IS NEEDED.

AFTER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH COLDER AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN.
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTANT WITH KEEPING HIGHER POPS IN FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LIKELY POPS AND NEAR GUIDANCE LOWS. COLDER
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN STRONG ON SATURDAY. ONLY SLIGHT
TEMPERATURE INCREASES. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS IN. WITH THIS AND
WINDS AT LEAST 20 MPH NOT A PLEASANT DAY OUTSIDE. TEMPS WILL DROP
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT. GROUND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
WARM ENOUGH AFTER THE WEEK OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO PREVENT
MUCH ACCUMULATION. WILL ONLY BRING IN A SOME SNOW LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAINES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
200 AM EST FRI APR 22 2005

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-231100-
BARTHOLOMEW-BOONE-BROWN-CARROLL-CLAY-CLINTON-DAVIESS-DECATUR-
DELAWARE-FOUNTAIN-GREENE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HENDRICKS-HENRY-HOWARD-
JACKSON-JENNINGS-JOHNSON-KNOX-LAWRENCE-MADISON-MARION-MARTIN-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-OWEN-PARKE-PUTNAM-RANDOLPH-RUSH-SHELBY-SULLIVAN-
TIPPECANOE-TIPTON-VERMILLION-VIGO-WARREN-
322 PM EST THU APR 21 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FOR THE REST
OF TONIGHT. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE WEATHER LIMITS DURING THE
NIGHT TIME HOURS.

ON FRIDAY THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE
INDIANAPOLIS AREA AND SOUTHWARD.  IN THE LAFAYETTE...KOKOMO AND
MUNCIE AREAS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.  ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.  EVEN THOUGH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MOST OF THE DAY.  THE BEST CHANCES OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR BY MID OR LATE MORNING OVER WESTERN
INDIANA TO MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON OVER THE REST OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND JUST EAST OF A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY. THE RAIN MAY CHANGE TO SNOW
IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN ONE INCH.

THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN AGAIN
ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SEVERE WEATHER SPOTTERS IS LIKELY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

JEH