Hail and Damaging Winds in Indiana, April 22, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
215 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING)...

PREVIOUS FCST TRENDS STILL LOOK QUITE GOOD... THE CURRENT FCST AND
NEW MODEL TRENDS ARE STILL MORE OR LESS IN LINE.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT
WHILE A STRONG CANADIAN VORTEX DROPS SWRD FROM SRN HUDSON BAY INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS COLD
VORTEX WILL BE THE CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OR RW-/SW- NERN HALF OF FA LATE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING PROVIDED THERE IS ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL RH AVAILABLE...SINCE THE AIR WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE
MIXED PCPN.

HOWEVER:THE MOST IMPORTANT CONCERN IS THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE SHOULD TRIGGER SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE IN
SOME PORTIONS OF THE FA. WILL GO WITH PREVIOUS FCST TRENDS OF THIS
FEATURE.

AS I COMPOSE THIS DISCUSSION...WE ARE DISCUSSING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH WITH SPC FOR A PORTION OF THE FA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...PERSISTENCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST SEEMS
THE BEST WAY TO GO WI SOME ADJUSTMENTS ON WIND GUSTS AND TEMPS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

EXPECT A COOL FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS A DEEP AMPLITUDE CLOSED
LOW REMAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT THIS CLOSED UPPER AIR CIRCULATION WILL ACTUALLY
RETROGRADE TOWARDS THE WEST TUESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE DIVES SOUTH
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER
CLOSED LOW. WITH THE APPARENTLY MORE MORE WESTWARD FORECAST TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM...THREAT OF SHOWERS INCREASES TUESDAY ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW FORMS AND THEN MOVES INTO THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY.

AS SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY WEDNESDAY...500
MB TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CWA. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
WRAP-AROUND CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH COMMA HEAD OF CYCLONE WILL
KEEP WEDNESDAYS TEMPERATURES QUITE COOL FOR THE SEASON.

GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS TROUGH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES FLATTENS OUT AND UPPER AIR FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. HAVE
REMOVED PRECIPITATION FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF
STATES WILL RETARD MUCH RETURN OF MOISTURE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
WARM TEMPERATURES AGAIN FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES FARTHER EAST
ACROSS FLORIDA.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.IN...NONE.
.KY...NONE.

&&

JA/JSD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1130 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2005

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-230900-
ADAIR KY-ALLEN KY-ANDERSON KY-BARREN KY-BOURBON KY-BOYLE KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-BULLITT KY-BUTLER KY-CASEY KY-CLARK IN-CLARK KY-
CLINTON KY-CRAWFORD IN-CUMBERLAND KY-DUBOIS IN-EDMONSON KY-
FAYETTE KY-FLOYD IN-FRANKLIN KY-GARRARD KY-GRAYSON KY-GREEN KY-
HANCOCK KY-HARDIN KY-HARRISON IN-HARRISON KY-HART KY-HENRY KY-
JEFFERSON IN-JEFFERSON KY-JESSAMINE KY-LARUE KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-
MADISON KY-MARION KY-MEADE KY-MERCER KY-METCALFE KY-MONROE KY-
NELSON KY-NICHOLAS KY-OHIO KY-OLDHAM KY-ORANGE IN-PERRY IN-
RUSSELL KY-SCOTT IN-SCOTT KY-SHELBY KY-SIMPSON KY-SPENCER KY-
TAYLOR KY-TRIMBLE KY-WARREN KY-WASHINGTON IN-WASHINGTON KY-
WOODFORD KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARDSTOWN...BOWLING GREEN...
CAMPBELLSVILLE...COLUMBIA...CORYDON...CYNTHIANA...DANVILLE...
ELIZABETHTOWN...FRANKFORT...FRANKLIN...GLASGOW...HARDINSBURG...
HARRODSBURG...JASPER...LEITCHFIELD...LEXINGTON...LOUISVILLE...
NEW ALBANY...RICHMOND...RUSSELLVILLE...SHELBYVILLE...STANFORD...
VERSAILLES...WINCHESTER
1130 AM EDT (1030 AM CDT) FRI APR 22 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ALL OF SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY REMAINS IN A MODERATE
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. AS TEMPERATURES WARM THIS AFTERNOON...A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT
A THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOS
WILL BE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING...INDIVIDUAL STORMS MAY MERGE INTO A SQUALL LINE AS
THEY MOVE INTO EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY. DAMAGING WINDS WILL THEN
BECOME THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.

STAY ABREAST OF THE DEVELOPING STORMS AND HAVE A PLAN OF ACTION
READY SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JSD