Damaging Wind in New York, July 1, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
255 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2005

ZONES OUT EARLY...DUE TO THE WATCH. INCLUDED A REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. OTHER PRODUCTS BEING SHIPPED OUT.

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT...WORKING IN WESTERN NEW YORK
STATE...WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WE
STILL EXPECT STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TO OUR
EAST...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE...BUILDING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING A
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...AFTER A SLOW START...SOME
CONVECTION HAS BEEN FIRING UP TO THE EAST OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH....WHICH IS IN CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE AND OF COURSE THE COLD
FRONT...STILL JUST TO THE WEST OF WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. THESE
ROGUE STORMS IN MONTGOMERY COUNTY HAVE GROWN TO SEVERE LIMITS (PER
RADAR) AND HAVE SHOWN SOME MODERATE CONVERGENCE AND ROTATION. CELL
VIL IS UP TO 67...HIGHER THAN OUR VIL OF THE DAY WHICH IS AT 57.
ALREADY HAVE FIRED OFF A FEW SVRS. THE WHOLE AREA HAS BEEN INCLUDED
IN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
DESTABILIZING...AND WE HAVE SOME PRETTY HEALTHY
HELICITIES...ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
MITIGATING FACTORS INCLUDE A NOT SO STEEP H8-H5 LAPSE RATE...BUT
EVEN THAT SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME. OUR AREA COMES UNDER RR REGION
OF THE UPPER JETLET BY LATE IN THE DAY.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION BETWEEN 00Z-05Z.
AFTER THAT...GOOD SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING SHOULD BRING CLEARING AND
MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. IN FACT THE MET NOS STILL ONLY GO
AROUND 70 FOR HERE TOMORROW. HOWEVER EVEN THE COOLER NAM GIVES A H8
TEMPS OF NO LOWER THAN ABOUT 10C SO BELIEVE THESE VALUES ARE TOO LOW
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. WENT CLOSER TO WARMER FWC/MET
VALUES...ACTUALLY THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. EITHER WAY SATURDAY AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...LOOK STELLAR. THE COOL NIGHTS WILL ALLOW US TO
GIVES THOSE AIR CONDITIONERS A REST.

BY INDEPENDENCE DAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PUMP SOMEWHAT
WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER BACK OUR WAY...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE AS
UNBEARABLE AS WHAT WE HAVE ENDURE IN THIS STRETCH.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...AFTER A QUIET SPELL
THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL BREAK THE BACK OF ANY
IMPENDING HEAT WAVE. THE LATEST GFS ACTUALLY SHOWS A TENDENCY FOR A
CUTOFF LOW TO TRY TO FORM ON BY LATE TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP CHANCES IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHT
CHANCES ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND UPPER
AIR LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE EAST BY THAT DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION INTO EVENING. A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD
REACH 40 KNOTS OR MORE BETWEEN ABOUT 20Z AND 01Z. IF STRONG
WINDS/HAIL OR CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AFFECT KALB...A AWW WILL BE
ISSUED. AFTER FROPA WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND ANY
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE. WE WILL BE LOOKING AT VFR CONDITION THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...WHILE THE PRIMARY THEME UNTIL THIS EVENING SHOULD NOT
BE FLASH FLOODING...THERE COULD VERY WELL BE SOME VERY LOCALIZED
FLOODING. IN FACT...A FFW HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN
MONTGOMERY COUNTY WHERE RADAR ESTIMATED TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD
BE FALLING PER HOUR. PWS WILL CREEP BACK TOWARD 2 INCHES. SOME BACK
BUILDING IS POSSIBLE. WITH TIME...THE CELLS SHOULD START MOVING MORE
QUICKLY WITH TIME BUT UNTIL THEN...COULD  BE LOOKING AT SOME
ADDITIONAL LOCALIZING FLOODING. MEANWHILE...AVERAGE RIVER BASIN
RAINFALL IS PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH...WHICH MEANS LARGER
STEM RIVERS SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED MUCH (IF AT ALL). AFTER THE COLD
FRONT AND STORMS MOVES TO OUR EAST...DRY WEATHER AND NO HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT UNTIL NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH-001-013-020100
MA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH-001-025-020100
NY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH-
032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-020100
VT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH-013>015-020100

&&

SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...KOLECI
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
153 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2005

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-021100-
BENNINGTON VT-EASTERN ALBANY NY-EASTERN COLUMBIA NY-
EASTERN DUTCHESS NY-EASTERN GREENE NY-EASTERN RENSSELAER NY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY NY-EASTERN ULSTER NY-EASTERN WINDHAM VT-
HAMILTON NY-MONTGOMERY NY-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE MA-NORTHERN FULTON NY-
NORTHERN HERKIMER NY-NORTHERN LITCHFIELD CT-NORTHERN SARATOGA NY-
NORTHERN WARREN NY-NORTHERN WASHINGTON NY-SCHOHARIE NY-
SOUTHEAST WARREN NY-SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE MA-SOUTHERN FULTON NY-
SOUTHERN HERKIMER NY-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CT-SOUTHERN SARATOGA NY-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON NY-WESTERN ALBANY NY-WESTERN COLUMBIA NY-
WESTERN DUTCHESS NY-WESTERN GREENE NY-WESTERN RENSSELAER NY-
WESTERN SCHENECTADY NY-WESTERN ULSTER NY-WESTERN WINDHAM VT-2
153 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

.DAY ONE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 572 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
TUESDAY THOUGH THURSDAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ACTIVATED IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN CONNECTICUT...
LITCHFIELD

IN MASSACHUSETTS...
BERKSHIRE

IN NEW YORK...

ALBANY
COLUMBIA
DUTCHESS
FULTON
GREENE
HAMILTON
HERKIMER
MONTGOMERY
RENSSELAER
SARATOGA
SCHENECTADY
SCHOHARIE
ULSTER
WARREN
WASHINGTON

IN VERMONT...

BENNINGTON
WINDHAM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
122 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2005

NYZ082-011745-

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN FULTON COUNTY...

AT 120 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...SMALL HAIL...WINDS IN EXCESS OF
40 MPH LOCATED NEAR CAROGA LAKE...OR ABOUT 11 MILES WEST OF
GLOVERSVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
CAROGA LAKE PUBLIC CAMPGROUND AND CAROGA LAKE BY 140 PM EDT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
312 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2005

NYZ063-012000-

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO WESTERN ULSTER COUNTY...

AT 303 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...SMALL HAIL...WINDS IN EXCESS OF
40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 24 MILES WEST OF WOODLAND VALLEY CAMPGROUND...OR ABOUT 7
MILES EAST OF ROSCOE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
WOODLAND VALLEY CAMPGROUND...PHOENICIA BY 340 PM EDT
7 MILES WEST OF MOUNT TREMPER AND 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF WEST SHOKAN
BY 400 PM EDT

RAINFALL RATES WILL APPROACH AN INCH AN HOUR WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

TAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
334 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2005

NYZ032-033-038-012015-

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES...

AT 328 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...SMALL HAIL...WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.  THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MCKEEVER TO 19 MILES WEST OF NORTHWOOD...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 11 MILES WEST OF OLD FORGE TO 17 MILES WEST OF HINCKLEY...AND
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
MCKEEVER BY 345 PM EDT
NICKS LAKE CAMPGROUND AND OLD FORGE BY 355 PM EDT
BIG MOOSE BY 400 PM EDT
ALGER ISLAND PUBLIC CAMPGROUND BY 405 PM EDT
INLET...EAGLE BAY AND NORTHWOOD BY 410 PM EDT
OHIO AND COLD BROOK BY 415 PM EDT

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH.

TAW