Heat in New Jersey, June 13 to 14, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2005

.OVERVIEW...
FINDING THE RIGHT TEMPERATURE SCHEME FROM THE MODELS WILL DETERMINE OUR
COMFORT FACTOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ANY EVENT, BEFORE WE GET
TO SEE THOSE ADVERTISED TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S LATER IN THE WEEK, WERE
GOING TO POSSIBLE ENDURE HOT TEMPERATURES AND A HEAT INDEX THAT COULD
REACH ABOVE THE HUNDRED DEGREE MARK AND POSSIBLY NEAR ONE HUNDRED FIVE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THINKING AT THIS EARLY HOUR IS THAT AN EXCESSIVE
HEAT WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. PHL HAS REACH 90
ONLY ONCE THIS JUNE ON THE 8TH(94), ALLENTOWN 93 ON THE SAME DAY AS DID
ATLANTIC CITY(92), WILMINGTON (90) AND GEORGETOWN (91). READING LEADS
THE WAY WITH FOUR CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF >90 DEG, JUNE 6/7/8/9 WITH 92, 90,
95 AND 92. TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS COULD REACH INTO
THE MID 90S ESP IN THE AREAS FROM PHL, SOUTH AND EAST. THE OTHER CONCERN
IS THAT WEVE YET TO HAVE A HOT STRETCH HERE FOLLOWING A COOL LATE SPRING.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
KDOX RADAR SHOWING A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL CHES BAY
AND OCNLY UP TO SRN DEL BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE NAM PICKED UP ON THIS WITH
.04 MOVING OFFSHORE 12Z. MSAS SHOWS VORT MAX AND LIS OF ARND 0 GENRL AREA.
ONCE GONE, THAT WILL BE IT THIS MRNG. BUT MORE ON THE WAY. SATL SHOWING TROP
MOISTURE MOVING N THRU THE OHIO VALLEY AND CLOUDS STREAMING DOWN BACK-SIDE
OF RIDG. OUR PCPN LATER ON COMPLIMENTS OF VORT MAX MOVING INTO NY BUT TAILING
S ALONG THE APPALACHIANS DEVELOPING A WEAK TROUGH THAT MOVES ACRSS THE
STATE OF PA DURING THE MID DAY/EVENING HOURS. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S
AND PWS OF 2 INCHES, SHOULD SE SOME HEAVY SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
JUST IN TIME FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON RUSH HOUR. SHOULD ONLY BE SCATTERED
SHOWERS UP UNTIL AROUND 17Z AND THEN LOOK FOR A LINE OF -TSRA TO FORM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ON WED ITLL BE A CLOSE CALL WITH REACHING THE HIGHER TEMPS BUT COULD REACH
ABOVE 100 HEAT INDEX FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. IN
ADDITION, W WINDS AT 80H COULD LOWER DEW POINTS FROM DOWNSLOPING AND PUT AN
END TO THE EXCESSIVE HEAT BUT IF NOT PART OF WED WILL BE A SULTRY DAY.
WED IS SIMILAR TO THE DAY WHEN WE LAST HAD AN ADVISORY UP THEN THE FRONT CAME
CRASHING THROUGH ON THE 6TH WITH WIDESPREAD SVR WEATHER. WILL CERTAINLY KEEP
AN EYE ON FUTURE DISCS FROM SPC. FOLLOWING FROPA TEMPS COOL DOWN CONSIDERABLE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY BARRELLS THROUGH THEN STRONGER UPPER LOW FORMS ON
DOWNSIDE OF LAKES AND LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT TEMPS REMAIN BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS
MORNING...LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO KRDG.  HOWEVER...ANY
LOW CLOUDS OR FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.  THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.  FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE SOME PROB
GROUPS AND WILL LOOK AT INTRODUCING SOME TEMPOS FOR THE LATER
PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE BREAKING
DOWN.  WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY PAZ067>071.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY NJZ15-017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH TUESDAY WEDNESDAY DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

OVERVIEW/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...EBERWINE
AVIATION/MARINE...NIERENBERG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
444 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2005

ANZ430-431-450>455-DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-
012>027-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-140843-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-
CAPE MAY NJ-CARBON PA-CAROLINE MD-CECIL MD-CHESTER PA-
COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE PA-
DELAWARE BEACHES DE-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-
INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT MD-KENT DE-LEHIGH PA-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-
MONROE PA-MONTGOMERY PA-MORRIS NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHAMPTON PA-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-QUEEN ANNES MD-
SALEM NJ-SOMERSET NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-SUSSEX NJ-TALBOT MD-
WARREN NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALLENTOWN...ATLANTIC CITY...BETHLEHEM...
CAMDEN...DOVER...NEW BRUNSWICK...NEWARK...PERTH AMBOY...
PHILADELPHIA...READING...TRENTON...VINELAND AND WILMINGTON
444 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA, DELAWARE, THE NORTHERN MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND NEW
JERSEY, EXCLUDING THE FIVE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SOME MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
FOR COUNTIES BORDERING THE DELAWARE VALLEY. HEAT INDEXES COULD
REACH 105 DEGREES ON TUESDAY AND FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES ON
WEDNESDAY. ALSO, A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION
AT THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

EBERWINE