Flash Flood and Damaging Winds in New York, June 13, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1025 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2005

.UPDATE...
WEAK AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHER TIER AT 1000AM
POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME SPRINKLES AT THIS TIME.  THIS WEAK LINE WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS IT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE NOW WELL KNOWN
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.  RUC SOUNDING GIVES US A -3.6 LI AND
A MLCAPE OF ABOUT 500.  RUCS SBCAPES ARE MORE IN LINE WITH NAMS
SOMEWHAT UNREALISTIC VALUES OF 1600.  WOULD TEND TO LEAN TOWARD
MIXED LAYER VALUES.  THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THIS LINE BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT TIME WILL TELL.  THE NEXT AREA
OF CONCERN IS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY.  THIS
SHOULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN NY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH IT MOVING THROUGH
ROC AND ART LATER TONIGHT.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT.  MADE CHANGES IN FORECAST WITH AN ATTEMPT
TO TIME THESE TWO EVENTS FOR THE TODAY AND TONIGHT PERIODS.  NO
CHANGES TO TEMP OR DEWPOINTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

SFC LOW CENTER OF ARLENE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AT 06Z IS PROGGED TO
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO REACHING
NORTHERN NEW YORK TUESDAY MORNING...BASICALLY RIDING THE CREST OF
THE UPPER RIDGE. SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY PRESENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS
THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ARLENE. ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY
ON TAP WITH TEMPS AGAIN REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70. PWS CONTINUE AROUND 2 SO ANY TSTMS
TODAY COULD STILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY HEAVY RAINS.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
HOWEVER ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO WARRANT KEEPING
THE CHC POPS. GFS/NAM HINTING AT WARM FRONT FROM LOW OVER THE UP OF
MICHIGAN REACHING WNY BY TUESDAY AFTN. TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE LAST
DAY OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY. 850 TEMPS FALLING TO +10 TO +12C...RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ON TO THE COAST ON THURSDAY, BUT ENOUGH
MOISTURE LINGERS UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH MILD JUNE
WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CONDITIONS (FOR VSBY IN HAZE/LIGHT FOG) WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS TO IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE FOR A
COUPLE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE IN RECENT
DAYS... THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
TODAY...THOUGH THIS WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARLENE CROSS
THE AREA. CIGS SHOULD BE GENERALLY VFR...THOUGH THEY COULD GO
BORDERLINE MVFR IN THE WAKE OF ANY CONVECTION THIS EVENING.

&&

.BUFFALO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NY...NONE.
.MARINE...NONE.

UPDATE...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...JML
LONG TERM...APB
AVIATION...JJR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
446 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2005

LEZ040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-130854-
ALLEGANY-CATTARAUGUS-CHAUTAUQUA-GENESEE-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON-
MONROE-NIAGARA-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-ONTARIO-ORLEANS-OSWEGO-
SOUTHERN ERIE-WAYNE-WYOMING-
446 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY...WITH THE ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO BE MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
AS THE REMNANTS OF ARLENE LIFT FROM MICHIGAN ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSS THE REGION. AGAIN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO OCCUR WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS
THAT COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT
THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO REACH SEVERE LIMITS AND PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
FOLLOWING THE FRONT, MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER
WILL RETURN TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.