Damaging Wind in Missouri, September 28, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
305 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE QUAD
STATE AREA TODAY...WHICH IS HELPING TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO OUR IMMEDIATE NORTHWEST.  THE 12Z NAM AND
GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE FRONT RAPIDLY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND OUT OF THE ENTIRE AREA SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  A VIGOROUS MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL PUSH JUST SOUTH OF EAST THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...AS
AN UPPER RIDGE HOLDS STRONG TO OUR SOUTHWEST.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ADVERTISED BY CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
LOOK REASONABLE...ESPECIALLY NORTH.  THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE CAPPING
INVERSION IN THE MID LEVELS...WITH THE WARMEST AIR TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST.  MID/UPPER FORCING WILL BE GREATEST IN THE NORTH...SO
THAT IS WHERE THE GREATEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE.  WILL HAVE 70 TO 80
POPS IN THE NORTH WITH 60S IN THE SOUTH.  WITH ALL OF THE WARM AIR
ALOFT...INSTABILITY WILL BE HARD TO COME BY...SO DO NOT FEEL THAT
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH SEVERE LEVELS THIS EVENING.
ACCORDINGLY...SPC HAS JUST PUSHED THE SLIGHT RISK BACK WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA.

CLEARING SKIES SHOULD BE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA BY 12Z.  WITH
STRONG COLD...DRY ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...SEE NO REASON
TO LINGER POPS INTO THURSDAY.  THE FORECAST LOOKS RELATIVELY COOL
AND DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SITS DOWN ON THE AREA.  WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
30S EXPECTED...LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S SEEM REASONABLE...SO DECIDED TO
ADD PATCHY FROST TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A COOL DAY TOMORROW WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...A MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR SHORT TERM TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY WENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  GENERALLY FAVORED
THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
06Z/12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF FAIRLY SIMILAR ON BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE NATIONS MID-SECTION ON SATURDAY...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH ANCHORS ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST. BY 12Z SATURDAY...BOTH
MODELS POSITION THIS FEATURE OVER KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...THIS SYSTEM SWINGS TO THE NORTHEAST AND OPENS UP...RIDING
THE TOP OF THE H50 RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY SUNDAY...THE
GFS SHOWS A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH THEN THE 00Z ECMWF. THE GFS PAINTS
SOME LIGHT QPF OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THIS FEATURE EASTWARD BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH DIRECTLY OVER OUR
CWA AS IT SANDWICHES ITSELF BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL HIGHS TO ITS
WEST AND EAST. THE GFS LOOKS MORE REASONABLE HERE (HPC ALSO FAVORS
THE GFS)...AS IT SHOWS THIS SHORTWAVE STEADILY MOVE EAST WITH
TIME...AND THEN GET CAUGHT UP SOMEWHERE IN THE APPALACHIANS. SO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THE WEEKEND STILL SEEM WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES OVER OUR REGION WHICH SHOULD
KEEP MONDAY AND TUESDAY DRY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MAKES
ITS WAY TOWARD THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK...SO HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
SMALL POPS THERE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

DRS/CW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
608 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-292315-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...CARBONDALE...MURPHYSBORO...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...
SHAWNEETOWN...JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...
CAIRO...MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...
POSEYVILLE...EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...
CLINTON...BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...
BENTON...MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...
MORGANFIELD...DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...
OWENSBORO...CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...PERRYVILLE...
MARBLE HILL...CAPE GIRARDEAU...JACKSON...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...
DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...
NEW MADRID
608 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
TO THE WEST OF A LINE FROM PINCKNEYVILLE ILLINOIS TO DEXTER MISSOURI
THIS EVENING.  STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI MAY
STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WHEN THEY MOVE
INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE
ENTIRE REGION THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LESSER INSTABILITY EAST OF THE OUTLOOKED AREA...SHOULD RESULT IN
A WEAKENING TREND AS THE STORMS MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED DURING EITHER OF THESE PERIODS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING WEST OF A
PINCKNEYVILLE ILLINOIS TO DEXTER MISSOURI LINE.

DRS