Hail in Missouri, September 19, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
257 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2005

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT RADAR PIX SHOW A NARROW LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM KMCI
TO KIRK...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.  SO
FAR...CELLS HAVE BEEN ELEVATED AND HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO BECOME
SURFACE BASED. AS AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT CONTINUE TO HEAT
UP...MAY BE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP AND SEE SEVERE ACTIVITY FARTHER
SOUTH OF THE LINE.  GOOD INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE...WITH MAINLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR.  LOOKING FOR SOME HAILERS...ALTHOUGH STORMS
WILL HAVE TO BE STRONG WITH THE FZ LVL STILL AOA 15K FT.  EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO HELP MOVE THE COLD FRONT SOUTH AND OUT OF THE AREA
BY MID EVENING AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY.

THE SURFACE FRONT IS VERY SHALLOW...WITH MINIMAL AIR MASS CHANGE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY -
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.  THERE IS SOME DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN...SO AT
LEAST THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER.

THE NEXT ITEM OF INTEREST IS WITH THE THETA/E ADV ON TUES NIGHT INTO
WED MORNING.  HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHCS IN ERN KS AND FAR WRN
MO...BUT DUE TO PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MOISTURE SCOURING...PROBABLY
WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY SENSIBLE WX.

THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST FEATURES A PESKY SURFACE
BOUNDARY IN INDETERMINATE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  PLENTY OF MODEL
DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS...INCLUDING WHERE THE
HURRICANE ENDS UP.  FOR NOW...EXPECT THE FRONT TO NEAR THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY.  ATTM...THIS IS THE ONLY TIME PD WE HAVE POPS
IN...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING THE FRONT HEADING BACK NORTH AND
OTHERS STALLING AROUND THE I70 CORRIDOR.  UNTIL THE FEATURES CAN BE
REFINED...HAVE KEPT THE EXTENDED MAINLY DRY.

27
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

1015 AM
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TRYING TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT AS NOSE OF UPPER JET MOVES OUT OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
WESTERN IOWA. VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT IS
KEEPING THIS INITIAL DEVELOPMENT FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD...BUT
STILL THINK ACTIVITY WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AS FRONT
MOVES INTO LESS CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
BACK TO AROUND KANSAS CITY AREA.  WILL PULL POPS FURTHER NORTH FOR
THIS MORNING TO COVER CURRENT ACTIVITY.

PC

410 AM CDT MON...
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT.  ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF MAJOR FEATURES...THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS MORE
ACCURATELY REPRESENTED BY THE GFS.

WENT NEAR GUIDANCE TEMPS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TODAY.  WITH LITTLE
CLOUD COVER TO INHIBIT HEATING...DECIDED TO BUMP UP TEMPS.  AT THE
UPPER LEVELS...A FLAT RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.  SHORTWAVES PUSHING ACROSS THE RIDGE WARRANT
SMALL POPS...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE RETURN DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL
WEDNESDAY.  BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP TODAY WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE THE
GREATEST AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL EXPERIENCE THE HIGHEST DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION DUE TO THE BOUNDARY. AN AXIS OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SETS UP ALONG THE KS-MO BORDER ON WEDNESDAY SO INCREASED
POPS SLIGHTLY. WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE...DECIDED AGAINST ALSO
INCREASING QPF.

TM

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO EAX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1257 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2005

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-201100-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1257 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR UNIONVILLE...TO CAMERON TO
LEAVENWORTH KANSAS WILL BE MOVING SOUTH WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON.
INITIALLY...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OCCURRING BEHIND THIS
FRONT...A FEW MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FROM AROUND KANSAS
CITY...NORTHEAST THROUGH KIRKSVILLE AND MACON. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
BY MID EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN FROM IOWA INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI ON FRIDAY...AND THEN RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS FRIDAY AND MAINLY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI.
HOWEVER...THE PATH OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN THE GULF WILL HAVE AN
INFLUENCE ON THE EVENTUAL TIMING OF THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH...SO THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY THAT STORMS MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL IF
THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS KANSAS AND MISSOURI.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-70.

27

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
447 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0447 PM     HAIL             PLEASANT HILL           38.80N 94.27W
09/19/2005  1.00 INCH        CASS               MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

SFORTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
524 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     HAIL             4 N CENTERVIEW          38.80N 93.85W
09/19/2005  0.75 INCH        JOHNSON            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SFORTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
529 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     HAIL             5 NNW WARRENSBURG       38.83N 93.75W
09/19/2005  0.88 INCH        JOHNSON            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SFORTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
532 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     HAIL             2 W WARRENSBURG         38.76N 93.77W
09/19/2005  1.50 INCH        JOHNSON            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0525 PM     HAIL             1 WNW WARRENSBURG       38.77N 93.75W
09/19/2005  1.00 INCH        JOHNSON            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SFORTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
535 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0449 PM     HAIL             PLEASANT HILL           38.80N 94.27W
09/19/2005  1.00 INCH        CASS               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SFORTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
537 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0536 PM     HAIL             BOONVILLE               38.96N 92.75W
09/19/2005  1.00 INCH        COOPER             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SFORTIN