Lightning Strikes in California, September 19 to 20, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
230 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2005

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE IN SOUTH FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA TUESDAY. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK FOR AREAS OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER WITH A
DEEPER MARINE LAYER TOWARD THE WEEKEND. AUTUMN BEGINS THURSDAY AT
323 PM PDT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE INTO THE COASTAL AREAS AND WRN VALLEYS
EARLIER THIS MORNING AND CLEARED BY LATE MORNING. A BAND OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE WAS MOVING UP FROM THE SSE. THE 12Z NKX SOUNDING HAD AN
INVERSION BASED NEAR 2200 FT. WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENTS TO THE E AND
OFFSHORE FROM THE N.

A LOW OFF THE COAST AND A LARGE HI TO THE E WILL FUNNEL TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUE. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MID LEVEL FLOW IS FAIRLY STRONG WITH
20 TO 30 KT AT 700 MB A LITTLE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE WHICH WILL TEND
TO SHEAR THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE
TUE. THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST MOVES OUT TO THE NE WED AND DRIER
SW FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DEPTH OF THE MARINE LAYER
TUE AND WED BUT THE MID AND HI LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD DISRUPT IT
TONIGHT AND PERHAPS TUE NIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER WILL START TO DEEPEN
LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. SOME OF THE MODERATELY STRONG WINDS
ALOFT COULD AFFECT THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS TUE CAUSING LOCALLY BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS.

LONGER RANGE PROGS INDICATE AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NW
FOR COOLER WEATHER AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
LOW MOVES NE AND AN UPPER HI BUILDS IN FROM THE E EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOR A LITTLE DECREASE IN THE MARINE LAYER AND WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE MARINE LAYER REMAINS
AROUND 1800 FEET ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE STRATUS
TO REFORM ALONG THE COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AND BEGIN TO PUSH BACK ONSHORE DURING THE EVENING. STRATUS
SHOULD REACH THE INLAND VALLEYS BY MIDNIGHT AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE
INLAND EMPIRE NEAR CNO AND F70 BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE THEN
CLEARING BACK TO THE COAST DURING THE MID MORNING.

ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER...SCATTERED TO BROKEN ALTOCUMULUS WITH BASES
ABOVE 12000 FEET MSL ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE COMING NORTH FROM
MEXICO WILL COVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS IS BECOMING
UNSTABLE WHICH COULD BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...ATKIN
AVIATION...HORTON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
150 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2005

CAZ042-192300-
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
150 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS
IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

ABOVE NORMAL SURF WILL CAUSE STRONG AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL SURF WILL CAUSE STRONG AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MOISTURE IN SOUTH FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. IN THE MOUNTAINS FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW TO
MODERATE. LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
HAZARDS NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SKYWARN WEATHER SPOTTER ACTIVATION
IS NOT REQUESTED FOR THIS AREA...HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

CAZ043-048-050-055-056-057-058-060-061-062-192300-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-
COACHELLA VALLEY-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-
150 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR
SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE
SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS
APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS
COACHELLA VALLEY
SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS
IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

MOISTURE IN SOUTH FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. IN THE MOUNTAINS FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW TO
MODERATE. LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
HAZARDS NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SKYWARN WEATHER SPOTTER ACTIVATION
IS NOT REQUESTED FOR THIS AREA...HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NOTE...THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NOW INCORPORATES THE FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL INDEX THAT WAS ISSUED SEPARATELY IN PREVIOUS YEARS.
THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL INDEX WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK IF IT EXCEEDS THE LOW CATEGORY IN THE FIRST TWO
DAYS. THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED DAILY AT 4 AM AND 4 PM OR AS
NEEDED THROUGH SEPTEMBER 30.

ATKIN