High Surf in Oregon, September 19 to 20, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
850 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2005

.DISCUSSION...AN UPDATE IS NOT NECESSARY. THE COMPUTER MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN THEIR DEPICTION OF CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS A
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON. A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIVES SOUTH FROM CANADA. IT WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
THURSDAY BUT NOTICEABLE COOLING FRIDAY AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN FACT THE MODELS HAVE VARIED SOMEWHAT IN THE
DEPTH/STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH BUT THE EFFECTS OF THESE VARIATIONS
ARE NEARLY NEGLIGIBLE AS THE STRONGEST OF THE MODEL RUNS SHOWS
PRIMARILY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. CURRENT 10% POPS IN THE
FORECAST LOOK GOOD FOR THE COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN AS THE POSSIBILITY
OF A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH A LITTLE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE PRESENT. MORE LIKELY IS AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS BANKING
UP AGAINST THE SOUTH END OF THE UMPQUA BASIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHILE THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE GREAT BASIN FOR MOSTLY CLEAR BUT CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS FOR
THE WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK BACK TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.

.AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS AT THE COAST...MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO PERSISTING THROUGH 17-18Z TUESDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE BEFORE SCATTERED CIRRUS ARRIVES TUESDAY.

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 0-60 NM CAPE BLANCO TO CA BORDER.
CA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 0-60 NM OR BORDER TO PT ST GEORGE.

&&

DW
ALSO VISIT THE NWS ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD