Hail in Missouri, June 8, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
823 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2005

.DISCUSSION...

QUICK ADJUSTMENT TO THE MORNING FORECAST FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE
POPPED UP. WITH THE MOISTURE AXIS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND
FAR WESTERN MISSOURI...AND THE OUT FLOW FROM THE OVERNIGHT MCS IN
NEBRASKA/IOWA HAS...THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS POPPED OF A LINE OF STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MID MORNING HORUS ACROSS. EXPECTATIONS ARE
THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET THAT HELPED START THESE STORMS SHOULD PUSH
THEM OF THE MOISTURE AXIS LATTER THIS MORNING...LIMITING THEIR LIFE
SPAN. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDING TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WHICH
INCLUDED BRING CHANCE POPS AS FAR SOUTH AS KANSAS CITY.
HOWEVER...WITHOUT THE SUPPORT OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...CONVECTION AS
FAR SOUTH AS I-70 SHOULD HAVE A HARD TIME SUSTAINING ITSELF.

CUTTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
335 AM WED...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN PART OF COUNTRY.

WATCHING STORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. BOTH 00Z
AND 06Z RUN OF NAM WANTS TO BRING THESE STORMS SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...THEN DROP IT SOUTH AS
A COMPLEX THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE SOUTH IN AXIS
OF BETTER MOISTURE THAT WILL BE SITTING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND
WESTERN MISSOURI. NAM 800 MB THETA E LINES UP PRETTY WELL WITH
MOISTURE THAT IS APPARENT ON 11-3.9 IR SATELLITE IMAGE. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ALSO SHOWING BEST MOISTURE POOLED IN EXTREME EASTERN
KANSAS AT THIS TIME. IF THIS COMPLEX DOES DIVE SOUTH THROUGH AREA
TODAY...MAY SEE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH THIS
EVENING...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. TRUE FRONT HOWEVER WILL
STILL BE TO OUR NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...SO MAKES FOR A COMPLEX
SITUATION AS TO WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
OCCURRING TONIGHT. WITH SUCH QUESTION MARKS...WILL LEAVE POPS IN
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.

TRUE FRONT SHOULD STAY JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...REMAINING ALIGNED WITH THE UPPER FLOW. CONVECTIVELY INDUCED
VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL LIKELY BE FACTORS ON WHERE STRONGEST
CONVECTION OCCURS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT PLACEMENT AND TIMING
OF THESE WAVES IS VERY UNCERTAIN...SO WILL KEEP WITH MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD POPS FOR THE TIME BEING.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...SOUTHWEST UPPER WAVE EXPECTED TO BE LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH STRONG RIDGE HOLDING FIRM OVER
THE EAST COAST...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION STRONGER STORMS MAY STAY
OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH SHORT WAVE
MOVING INTO NORTHERN PLAINS...SURFACE FRONT MAY BE DRAGGED A LITTLE
FURTHER TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
OF ANOTHER DECENT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND
NORTHWEST MISSOURI.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...ONLY SOME MINOR CHANGES MADE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.  WITH POSSIBILITY OF STORM COMPLEX AND QUITE A BIT OF
CLOUDINESS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES TODAY...WILL LOWER HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES...AND KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH EXPECTED CONVECTION.

PC

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
558 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2005

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-091100-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-
SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-
CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-
JOHNSON-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
558 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI
THIS MORNING AND IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER...MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS MAY ALSO
BE CLIPPED BY THESE STORMS. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THESE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL.

A BOUNDARY MAY RESULT FROM THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN
SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...THAT MAY AFFECT
AREAS SOUTH OF 50 HIGHWAY. IN ADDITION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE STALLED OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI WHICH
MAY ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT. AGAIN
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...SO LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
ALSO REMAIN A CONCERN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
MISSOURI AND ADJACENT AREAS OF EASTERN KANSAS FROM THURSDAY ON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE MID
SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. WITH SUCH AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN
PLACE...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVES
MOVE OVER THE REGION.

FLOODING RAINS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE FACT
THAT MANY AREAS HAVE GROUND THAT IS ALREADY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS
RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT TIMES TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.

PC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1102 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2005

MOZ014-023-081700-
DAVIESS-LIVINGSTON-
1102 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR EASTERN DAVIESS AND NORTHERN
LIVINGSTON COUNTIES...

AT 1100 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM EDINBURG TO
NETTLETON...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES EAST OF PATTONSBURG TO
19 MILES WEST OF CHILLICOTHE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE...
  NEAR LOCK SPRINGS BY 1110 AM CDT.
  NEAR SAMPSEL BY 1115 AM CDT.
  NEAR SPRINGHILL BY 1120 AM CDT.
  NEAR FARMERSVILLE BY 1125 AM CDT.
  NEAR CHULA BY 1135 AM CDT.
  NEAR WHEELING BY 1150 AM CDT.

ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE STORMS.

SF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1109 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2005

MOZ015-016-024-081715-
GRUNDY-LINN-SULLIVAN-
1109 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR GRUNDY...NORTHERN LINN AND SULLIVAN
COUNTIES...

AT 1105 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HARRIS TO JAMESPORT...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 15 MILES
NORTHEAST OF TRENTON TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TRENTON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE...
  NEAR DUNLAP BY 1125 AM CDT.
  NEAR OSGOOD BY 1130 AM CDT.
  NEAR LAREDO BY 1135 AM CDT.
  NEAR GALT BY 1140 AM CDT.
  NEAR HUMPHREYS BY 1150 AM CDT.
  NEAR PURDIN BY 1155 AM CDT.

HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

SF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1111 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             OLATHE                  38.89N 94.81W
06/07/2005  0.75 INCH        JOHNSON            KS   PUBLIC

            3/4 INCH HAIL AND 50 MPH WINDS REPORTED AT RENNER AND
            175TH

&&

MJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1125 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE CHILLICOTHE        39.81N 93.53W
06/07/2005                   LIVINGSTON         MO   PUBLIC

            ROOF OFF BARN AND UPSTAIRS HOUSE WINDOW BLOWN OUT

0330 PM     HAIL             WHEELING                39.79N 93.39W
06/07/2005  0.75 INCH        LIVINGSTON         MO   PUBLIC

0330 PM     TSTM WND GST     WHEELING                39.79N 93.39W
06/07/2005  60 MPH           LIVINGSTON         MO   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE LIMBS/BRANCHES DOWN

0538 PM     TSTM WND GST     OLATHE                  38.89N 94.81W
06/07/2005  60 MPH           JOHNSON            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0538 PM     HAIL             OLATHE                  38.89N 94.81W
06/07/2005  0.88 INCH        JOHNSON            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MJM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1139 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2005

MOZ008-081745-
SCHUYLER-
1142 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SCHUYLER COUNTY...

AT 1140 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR QUEEN CITY TO 5 MILES
NORTH OF DOWNING...OR 18 MILES NORTH OF KIRKSVILLE...MOVING EAST
AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE...
  NEAR DOWNING BY 1150 AM CDT.

AT 1125 AM...TRAINED SPOTTERS REPORTED DIME SIZE HAIL IN LANCASTER
WITH THIS STORM. DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

SF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1144 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1133 AM     HAIL             3 SE HAMILTON           39.71N 93.96W
06/08/2005  1.00 INCH        CALDWELL           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED

&&

MJM