Flash Flood in Missouri, June 10, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
603 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MCV CURRENTLY PUSHING OUT OF EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION WAS QUICK TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 1230
AND 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON AS MCV HAS INTERACTED WITH MOIST UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.  MIXED LAYER CAPES WERE
BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG. STORMS HAVE ALREADY SHOWN SIGNS OF
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND WOULD EXPECT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  IN
ADDITION...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE SAME AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
HEAVY RAIN IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.
HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME DUE TO
THE EXPECTED SCATTERED NATURE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS AND MAINLY
LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL.

CONVECTION DEVELOPING OUT WEST IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
TODAY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVERNIGHT AND
POSSIBLY MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN CWA TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN THE EXTREME WESTERN CWA AS
THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE IN.

UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH ONSHORE ON SATURDAY...AND INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY.  WILL CONTINUE TO LIKELY SEE
REDEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA.

EXTENDED PERIOD...

SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH PLACEMENT OF LARGE UPPER CIRCULATION FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK.  SHOULD STILL SEE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS NORTHWEST FLOW
RETURNS AND SHOULD PUSH MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
FOR THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.  HAVE KEPT IN A DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE THE TEMPO GROUP
WITH BROKEN 3000-4000 FOOT CEILINGS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
AROUND 03Z.  VISIBILITY WITHIN THE STORMS WILL DROP INTO THE 2 TO 3
MILE RANGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING AS A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PUSHES EAST INTO THE AREA
FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MO...NONE.
.KS...NONE.

LINDENBERG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
723 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-111100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
723 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING:
    FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
    HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.
    WINDS OF UP TO 60 MPH.
    AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA THIS EVENING AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST
  KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI OVERNIGHT.

  DISCUSSION:

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
  THE REMAINING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE MISSOURI
  OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS.
  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY APPROACH OR BECOME MARGINALLY
  SEVERE THIS EVENING.

  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A THUNDERSTORM
  COMPLEX IN KANSAS WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
  AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  THE MAIN HAZARD EXPECTED
  WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
  FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

  BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
  DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
  INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT AT THIS TIME
  EXPECTED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA SATURDAY
  EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

LINDENBERG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
421 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

MOZ081-102200-
LACLEDE-
421 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LACLEDE COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM
CDT...

AT 419 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF
LEBANON TO 9 MILES EAST OF CONWAY...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10
MILES NORTH OF LEBANON TO 12 MILES SOUTH OF LEBANON...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IZZI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
516 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     HAIL             CAMDENTON               38.00N 92.75W
06/10/2005  0.75 INCH        CAMDEN             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PENNY SIZE HAIL AND A 40 MPH THUNDERSTORM GUST.

0412 PM     TSTM WND GST     LEBANON                 37.68N 92.67W
06/10/2005  55 MPH           LACLEDE            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL.

0439 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FAIR GROVE              37.38N 93.15W
06/10/2005                   GREENE             MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES DOWN

GAEDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
523 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     FLASH FLOOD      DIXON                   38.00N 92.10W
06/10/2005                   PULASKI            MO   PUBLIC

            WATER IN SEVERAL BUILDINGS IN THE DOWNTOWN AREA

GAEDE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
546 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

MOZ077-102345-
BARTON-
546 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BARTON COUNTY UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

AT 543 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MINDENMINES...OR 12 MILES
EAST OF PITTSBURG...AND MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IZZI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
654 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

KSZ073-097-101-110500-
BOURBON-CHEROKEE-CRAWFORD-
654 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
455 IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 AM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREA...

IN KANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS

BOURBON... CHEROKEE... CRAWFORD...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...
FORT SCOTT AND PITTSBURG.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
710 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WAYNESVILLE             37.83N 92.20W
06/10/2005                   PULASKI            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL LOW WATER CROSSINGS FLOODED, BOOKER RD CLOSED IN
            TOWN

0706 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 SE BRINKTOWN          38.09N 92.03W
06/10/2005                   MARIES             MO   PUBLIC

            COUNTY ROADS 623 AND 621 CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

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