Hail in Mississippi, April 11, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
300 PM CDT MON APR 11 2005

.SHORT TERM...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ACCUMULATIONS FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
COUNTY WIDE FOR SOME AREAS. WITH THIS AND SATURATED CONDITIONS
ALREADY IN PLACE FOR MOST AREAS WILL HAVE TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR
ALL OF THE CWFA FOR TONIGHT. WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS
REMAINING WEST AND PUSHING NORTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN LAST TWO
EVENTS. WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR MOSTLY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR A FEW
ROTATING STORMS INITIALLY. LATEST MODELS SOUNDINGS ALSO DEPICT
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZE HAIL WITH SOME
OF THE STRONGER STORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. HAD TO TWEAK TEMPS
A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TONIGHT AND WED MAINLY ADJUSTING FOR THE LATEST
MOS GUIDANCE. /32

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN S/W TROF WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z TUE. MAIN
UPPER LOW OVER AR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHERN MS AND MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF AL DURING THE
DAY ON WED. WITH THIS EXPECT CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA EARLY WED. BY WED AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER
DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH OVER THE REGION. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. BY FRI AFT A WEAK RETURN FLOW FROM THE
GULF WILL DEVELOP MAINLY NEAR THE COAST DURING THE AFT HOURS
POSSIBLY GIVING WAY FOR ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PATCHY FOG FRI AND SAT
NIGHTS.
/32

&&

.MARINE...STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE MARINE
WATERS BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE LINE OF STORMS WILL
PRECEDE THE FRONT AND PUSH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA OVERNIGHT. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
LATE TUESDAY AND PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS A REINFORCING SURGE
COMES THROUGH LATE ON WEDNESDAY. OFFSHORE WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH ON
THURSDAY AND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE
RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. /39

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LOWER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL BECOME A
CONCERN BY WED AND CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
/32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      64  79  52  75 /  80  40  10  10
PENSACOLA   64  79  57  77 /  80  60  10  10
DESTIN      64  75  62  77 /  80  60  10  10
EVERGREEN   62  77  49  72 /  80  60  10  10
WAYNESBORO  61  78  49  72 /  80  40  10  20
CAMDEN      60  76  51  72 /  80  60  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT ALL ZONES.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT GMZ630-650-670.
FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT ALL ZONES.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT GMZ655-675.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT ALL ZONES.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
205 PM CDT MON APR 11 2005

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-120400-
BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-
COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-
GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
205 PM CDT MON APR 11 2005

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE POSTED FOR THE REGION TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING TUESDAY...TRANSITIONING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS ON TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

AS THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SEVERAL AREA RIVERS REMAIN IN FLOOD...AND ANY ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A CONTINUED FLOOD FOR THOSE
RIVERS ALONG WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF FLOODING FOR OTHER RIVERS
WHICH ARE CURRENTLY JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME. WITH
RECENT HEAVY RAINS...IT WILL NOT TAKE A LONG PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TO
RESULT IN RAPID FLOODING OF CREEKS AND SMALLER RIVER SYSTEMS AS WELL
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL RESULT IN ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS POSING A HAZARD TO
SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE HAS POSTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

THESE STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF DEADLY
RIP CURRENTS IN THE SURF ALONG AREA BEACHES TONIGHT. SWIMMING IS
STRONGLY DISCOURAGED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. REMEMBER TO HEED
ANY WARNING OR ADVISORY FLAGS POSTED ALONG AREA BEACHES.

STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND UPDATED FORECAST INFORMATION
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MOBILE
REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SEVERAL RIVERS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN FLOOD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.