Hail and Heavy Rain in Kansas, April 11, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
204 PM CDT MON APR 11 2005

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  UPPER LOW WAS
SPINNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL WITH TWO SEPARATE CIRCULATION CENTERS...
ONE IN FAR SOUTHERN KS...THE OTHER IN SOUTH DAKOTA.  SURFACE
BOUNDARY CUT ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST CWA...ROUGHLY FROM KLNK TO
KHJH...TO KRSL.  MOISTURE WAS POOLING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH
SFC DPS IN THE UPPER 50S...AND ACCORDING TO LAPS DATA SFC BASED CAPES
500 J/KG IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES...WITH HIGHER 1200 J/KG TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. TSTM POTENTIAL REMAINS THROUGH AFTN INTO THIS EVENING
WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY ALONG ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.  MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW HOURS YET...WITH
HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARD IN THE SOUTHEAST.

SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER LOW CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TONIGHT AND
WRAPAROUND SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY.  LOW
CLOUDS REMAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY...HOWEVER GOOD MIXING IN TIGHT SFC GRADIENT
SHLD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.  WEDNESDAY IS
THE TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST
AND BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  IN RETURN FLOW...TEMPERATURES
SHLD MODERATE FURTHER TO THE LOW/MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...FOR 12Z THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS HAVE STARTED TO NARROW IN ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH A
BLOCKING RIDGE ON THURSDAY SLOWLY GIVING WAY TO THE NEXT TROUGH FRI
INTO SAT.  THURSDAY NOW LOOKS DRY AS THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL KEEP
THE BEST FORCING FOR PRECIP OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
HOWEVER...THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE AS THE AREA HEADS INTO FRIDAY AS
THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE SHORT WAVE EXITS THE ROCKIES.  THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS QUESTIONABLE BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE PUSHING THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH
THIS WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY.  THIS WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT AND LIKELY A DRYLINE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.  EXPECT THIS TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH PRECIP CHANCES REMAINING INTO SATURDAY.
THIS COULD LIKELY BE THE NEXT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT FOR THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  SHORT WAVE RIDGING THEN TAKES HOLD OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.  THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE

&&

FAY/04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1120 AM CDT MON APR 11 2005

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-121200-
ADAMS NE-BUFFALO NE-CLAY NE-DAWSON NE-FILLMORE NE-FRANKLIN NE-
FURNAS NE-GOSPER NE-GREELEY NE-HALL NE-HAMILTON NE-HARLAN NE-
HOWARD NE-JEWELL KS-KEARNEY NE-MERRICK NE-MITCHELL KS-NANCE NE-
NUCKOLLS NE-OSBORNE KS-PHELPS NE-PHILLIPS KS-POLK NE-ROOKS KS-
SHERMAN NE-SMITH KS-THAYER NE-VALLEY NE-WEBSTER NE-YORK NE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GRAND ISLAND...HASTINGS...HOLDREGE...
KEARNEY...LEXINGTON...PHILLIPSBURG AND YORK
1120 AM CDT MON APR 11 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AREAS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...GENERALLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281.  THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HAIL
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST LATE FRIDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GID  (ALL LOWER CASE)

FAY