Flash Flood in Minnesota, June 13, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
903 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AND THE TORNADO WATCH EXPIRED
AS WELL. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST
IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND HAS BECOME MAINLY A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT. REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL WERE THE MAIN SEVERE REPORTS
TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY LESS THAN QUARTER SIZED.

OTHERWISE...AREA OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA RAPIDLY
DECREASING IN COVERAGE AS UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SETS IN. WILL
PROBABLY NEED TO BACK OFF ON COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FROM LATE EVENING
ON AS 300-500MB DIV Q LIFTS INTO ND AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
DISSIPATES. SO...WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE INTO
TOMORROW...AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING QUITE AS MUCH COVERAGE.

.PREV DISCUSSION...
NRLY STACKED LOW IN NERN NE WL MOV NEWD OVR MN TNGT WITH UNSTABLE
WARM SECTOR SCT TSTMS AHEAD OF LOW...TO WRAPAROUND SHWRS/SCT TSTMS
BEHIND LOW TNGT. HEAVY RAIN STILL PSBL WITH WRAPAROUND AS HAS BEEN
OCCURRING NEAR WINNER IN SCNTRL SD THIS AFTN...BUT APPEARS ENERGY
JUMPING TO EAST...SO WILL LET FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE AT 6 PM. NUISANCE
WRAPAROUND SCT SHWRS STILL EXPCD TO PULL EWD THRU CWA TUE...BUT
SLOWER THAN CURRENT FCST. HIGHS TUES SHOULD OCCUR LATE AS CLDS
SLOWLY BREAK UP FM W TO E IN CWA DURG AFTN. THEN WILL KEEP THE DRY
FCST WITH WARMING TREND SPRDG EWD OVR CWA WED THRU WEEKEND AS UPR
RDG BUILDS OVER AREA. TREND IS FOR PERSISTENT SLY FLOW TO BRING
BACK MORE HUMIDITY ALSO...SO GUID TEMPS...ESP LOWS...STILL LOOK A
LIT ON THE COOL SIDE. THERE IS THE OUTSIDE PSBLTY OF A FEW RIDGE
RIDING TSTMS ESP WITH NOCTURNAL JET AT SOME POINT...BUT WAY TOO
IFFY TO PUT IN FCST.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1255 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-141200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
1255 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A MARSHALL
MINNESOTA TO SPENCER IOWA LINE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF THE MODERATE
RISK AREA...INCLUDING SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA.

AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF A WARM
FRONT THAT IS SITUATED NEAR I 90 THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
OTHERWISE...THE SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISK AREAS COULD PRODUCE HAIL
UP TO ONE AND HALF INCHES WITH THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH.

FURTHERMORE...WEST OF A BON HOMME COUNTY TO KINGSBURY COUNTY
LINE...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD OCCUR IN SMALL
AREAS OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

FLOODING...
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WILL TOTAL OVER ONE INCH
IN MANY LOCATIONS.  RAINFALL RATES WITH SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE
ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN PONDING AND FLOODING.

FLOODING WILL OCCUR ON PORTIONS OF THE LOWER VERMILLION RIVER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...MINOR FLOODING WILL OCCUR
ON THE LITTLE VERMILLION NEAR SALEM...FIRESTEEL CREEK FROM MOUNT
VERNON TO NEAR MITCHELL...AND THE JAMES RIVER NEAR MITCHELL
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL...OTHER RIVERS AND STREAMS MAY OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS.
PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS THROUGH THE NWS
SIOUX FALLS INTERNET SITE AND YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
ON TUESDAY WILL CREATE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY AFTER

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FSD. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
812 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

MNZ071-072-080-081-089-097-098-SDZ038>040-050-052>056-058>067-140200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BROOKINGS-CHARLES MIX-COTTONWOOD MN-DAVISON-DOUGLAS-
GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
PIPESTONE MN-ROCK MN-SANBORN-TURNER-
812 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 471 HAS EXPIRED...

THE TORNADO WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WHILE
THERE MAY BE A FEW ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS...THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 474 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JACKSON COUNTY
MINNESOTA AND ALL OF NORTHWEST IOWA UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.

08

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
853 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     HAIL             2 ENE HILLS             43.54N 96.32W
06/13/2005  0.75 INCH        ROCK               MN   PUBLIC

&&

GH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
911 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N FAIRVIEW            43.24N 96.49W
06/13/2005                   SIOUX              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER OVER COUNTY GRAVEL ROADS...SEVERAL CREEKS WELL OUT
            OF BANKS AND STILL RISING. RECEIVED OVER 4 INCHES OF
            RAINFALL.

&&

GH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
914 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 PM     HAIL             4 NE MARSHALL           44.49N 95.73W
06/13/2005  0.88 INCH        LYON               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
930 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ090-140315-
BUENA VISTA IA-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY IA-DICKINSON IA-IDA IA-JACKSON MN-
LYON IA-OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PLYMOUTH IA-SIOUX IA-WOODBURY IA-
930 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 474 HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

THE TORNADO WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST IOWA AND
JACKSON COUNTY MINNESOTA...HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WHILE THERE
MAY BE A FEW ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS...THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE TORNADOES.

08

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
940 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 WSW INWOOD            43.28N 96.48W
06/13/2005                   LYON               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER RUNNING OVER BUCHANAN AVE BETWEEN 240TH AND 250TH
            ST. RECEDED BY 930 PM.

&&

DEMORIN