Hail in Louisiana, July 1, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1000 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2005

.DISCUSSION...

EXPECTING A RATHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE REGION WITH
VARIOUS FACTORS TO CONSIDER. THE FIRST BEING CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY MOVING ALONG PREVALENT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CLARKSVILLE TEXAS TO NEAR HOMER AND
MONROE LOUISIANA. CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FILL IN WELL NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SHOULD SLOW AND BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/NW
LA. SOUNDING ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWING PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO
GO AROUND WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LITTLE CAPPING INVERSION
ONCE THE MID 90S ARE REACHED. STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE MORE OF A WIND THREAT
AND A MINIMAL HAIL THREAT WITH OUR FZL NEAR 15K.

POP FORECAST LOOKS OK AND WILL LIKELY NOT CHANGE...HOWEVER...WILL
BUMP TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR
WHERE OBS ARE RUNNING ONE TO THREE DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24HRS AGO.
THE BOUNDARY MAY HELP TO LEVEL TEMPS OFF FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BUT
TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND SHORTLY THEREAFTER BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  99  73  94  74 /  50  50  40  20
MLU  96  73  93  73 /  50  50  40  20
DEQ  94  70  92  70 /  50  50  40  20
TXK  95  71  92  72 /  50  50  40  20
ELD  94  72  92  72 /  50  50  40  20
TYR  98  74  95  75 /  30  50  40  20
GGG  99  74  95  74 /  50  50  40  20
LFK  101 75  96  75 /  30  30  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2005

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-021100-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1200 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST...AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN
LOUISIANA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. LOOK FOR RAINFALL RATES NEAR TWO INCHES
PER HOUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE THIS EVENING. A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
LATE TONIGHT AND DRIFT SOUTHEAST. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS COMPLEX
OF STORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY COUNTRY OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST OUT OF
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS AND INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AS THEY PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND STORM
SPOTTERS...MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.