Hail in Kentucky, April 22, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
800 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2005

.DISCUSSION...

THERE HAVE BEEN MANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. THE REPORTS INCLUDE A POSSIBLE
TORNADO NEAR LOUISVILLE...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WIND. THE AREA
IS UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  THE
LATEST RUC MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE MOST ACTIVE AREA WILL MOST
LIKELY BE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IN THE MONTGOMERY...BATH
...ROWAN AND FLEMING COUNTIES. THIS IS WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY AND CAPE WILL BE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

417 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2005

NEAR TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...

SPC HAS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN A MODERATE RISK AND THE
REST OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. SOUNDINGS SHOW LI/S OF -7 AND CAPES AROUND 1500
J/KG. CLOUDS ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO THIN OUT OVER MOST OF THE CWA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE AND SOUTHERN INDIANA AND WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. WENT CATEGORICAL FOR POPS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
BOARD.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE NEAR TERM ARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING AND THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN KY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY...WITH
PLENTY OF CAA BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. WITH WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES...EXPECT ONLY LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET TOMORROW NIGHT. WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO END ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS
EAST. SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.

EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS ENSEMBLE FOR THE EXTENDED. MAIN CHANGES WERE
TO LOWER TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES...AS THE PATTERN ALOFT SLOWLY
TRANSITIONS FROM CYCLONIC TO ZONAL FLOW...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST. BUMPED UP POPS ON TUESDAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. ENDED POPS ON WEDNESDAY...AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
PULLS EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA.

1206 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2005

MADE MULTIPLE UPDATES TO THE FORECAST. HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT. LONG ANTICIPATED CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SEE NO REASON TO ARGUE WITH THE
PERSISTENT HIGH MOS POPS. HAVE ALSO UPDATED TO LIKELY POPS FOR ALL
BUT THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD YIELD
SHOWERS. THE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AS DEEP IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
HAVE ALSO CHANGED SATURDAY TEMPS TO REFLECT STEADY OR FALLING
DAYTIME READINGS.

358 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2005

ONGOING TSRA AND SIGNFT CLOUD COVER SLOWLY TRACKING EAST ACROSS ERN
KY THIS MORNING. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTION HAD PASSED BWG
AS OF 3 AM. CLOUD COVER HAS SUPPRESSED THE POSSIBILITY FOR DENSE
FOG...HOWEVER THE COPIOUS MOISTURE FROM THU CONVECTION HAS DROPPED
VIS FOR SOME OF THE AREA TO VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 2 MILES. AS WINDS
PICK UP IN ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTION...THE REDUCED VIS SHOULD
IMPROVE RAPIDLY. EXPECTING THE CONVECTION TO CROSS I-75 BY MID
MORNING. THAT PLACES ERN KY IN THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DURING
THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. MDT RISK OF SVR WX SUPPORTED BY THE GFS
WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3200 J/KG AT 18Z WITH VERY VISIBLE DRY SLOT
ON W/VP SAT AND RT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET. NAM NOT QUITE AS INTENSE
WITH SVR PARAMETERS.

FNTL BNDRY LOCATED ON THE KY/TN BORDER THIS AM WILL SLIDE TO THE OH
RVR BY MIDDAY WITH THE LOW TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWFA.
AS IF THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX WAS NOT ENUF...A SIGNFT POCKET OF
COLD AIR (85H TEMPS AT 0 DEG C OR BELOW THRU MON) PORTENDS THE
POSSIBILITY OF -SW OVERNIGHT SAT INTO EARLY SUN. ANY ACCUM SHOULD BE
VERY SLIGHT AND ONLY ON GRASSY AREAS AS THE GRND IS TOO WARM TO
SUPPORT. BETTER CHC FOR ACCUM WILL BE IN THE HIER ELEVATIONS OF ERN
KY...ALONG THE VA BORDER AND EVEN THERE THE -RA THAT MIXES IN WILL
LIMIT ACCUM TO A TRACE OR LESS. JACKETS WILL BE IN ORDER THIS
WEEKEND. WITH TEMPS TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 40S AND THEN
REMAINING BELOW 50 UNTIL MONDAY AFT.

EXTENDED HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH WITH THE LATEST MEX SO NOT MUCH TO
CHANGE WITH THE FCST. LOW CHC POP WITH -SHRA ALMOST EVERY DAY AND
NIGHT. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL ALLOW NUMEROUS WAVES TO PASS WITH EACH
ONE A POSSIBLE CAUSAL FOR RAIN. TIMING THE BIGGEST PROBLEM BUT WITH
OUT A PERIOD OF RECHARGE...EACH WAVE WILL HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SIG RH TO CREATE A HEAVY RAIN MAKER.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL
MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ALL BUT PIKE AND MARTIN COUNTIES.
&&

JACOBSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
423 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2005

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-231100-
BATH-BELL-BREATHITT-CLAY-ELLIOTT-ESTILL-FLEMING-FLOYD-HARLAN-JACKSON-
JOHNSON-KNOTT-KNOX-LAUREL-LEE-LESLIE-LETCHER-MAGOFFIN-MARTIN-
MCCREARY-MENIFEE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-OWSLEY-PERRY-PIKE-POWELL-PULASKI-
ROCKCASTLE-ROWAN-WAYNE-WHITLEY-WOLFE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARBOURVILLE...BEATTYVILLE...BOONEVILLE...
CAMPTON...FLEMINGSBURG...FRENCHBURG...HARLAN...HAZARD...HINDMAN...
HYDEN...INEZ...IRVINE...JACKSON...LONDON...MANCHESTER...MCKEE...
MIDDLESBORO...MONTICELLO...MOREHEAD...MOUNT STERLING...
MOUNT VERNON...OWINGSVILLE...PAINTSVILLE...PIKEVILLE...PINEVILLE...
PRESTONSBURG...SALYERSVILLE...SANDY HOOK...SOMERSET...STANTON...
WEST LIBERTY...WHITESBURG...WHITLEY CITY AND WILLIAMSBURG
423 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING. SOME SNOW
MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED EXCEPT IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER WHERE A DUSTING MAY
ACCUMULATE ON GRASSY AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY TODAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
CALL IN REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER.

DUSTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
846 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     HAIL             BURFIELD                36.73N 84.79W
04/22/2005  1.00 INCH        WAYNE              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0823 PM     HAIL             GREENWOOD               36.87N 84.49W
04/22/2005  0.75 INCH        MCCREARY           KY   COUNTY OFFICIAL

&&

MMCLANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
851 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0842 PM     HAIL             MONTICELLO              36.84N 84.85W
04/22/2005  0.25 INCH        WAYNE              KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JACOBSON