Damaging Wind in Kansas, September 28, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
210 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AND THEN COOL TEMPERATURES ARE
THE MAIN CONCERN.

A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST MO INTO WEST CENTRAL
MO AND SOUTHEAST KS AND IS RACING EAST AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP.
EXPANSIVE STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT 100 MB ML
CAPES FROM THE RUC REACHING UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG IN A NARROW BAND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER SE KS AND EXTREME SW MO. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING RIGHT ALONG THE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
WHERE LOW LEVEL FORCING IS ABLE TO PUNCH THROUGH WEAK-MODERATE CAP.
0-6KM SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS WILL SUPPORT LONGER LIVED ORGANIZED STORM
UPDRAFTS. SEVERE HAIL WILL BE MAIN STORM THREAT SINCE STORMS ARE
LIKELY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH STORM EVOLUTION
FOR A POSSIBLE WIND THREAT AS WELL. CELL IN CRAWFORD COUNTY KS
LOOKING MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH TIME.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION BY EARLY EVENING.
QUICK SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE
SHOULD RADIATE OUT NICELY WITH COOL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING WITH
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE REGION. STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO GFS MOS FOR
TEMPERATURES...WHICH SHOULD GET WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S IN SOME AREAS
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. USUAL COLDER LOW SPOTS MAY EVEN TOUCH
UPPER 30S UNDER CLEAR/CALM CONDITIONS.

MAINTAINED SMALL POPS AS UPPER LOW NOW OVER UT/AZ WILL APPROACH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. ANOTHER DEEP
500MB TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL BE WITH THE APPROACH OF THAT UPPER SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY. DSA

.AVIATION...

FOR 18Z TAFS...MAIN CONCERNS IS WITH FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL
LEAD TO HIGH END MVFR/LOW END VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. STILL COULD
SEE SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOULD SEE A
PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTING 25-30KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT...BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT.

IZZI

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MO...NONE.
.KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
245 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-291100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
245 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH UP TO HALF DOLLAR
SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE MISSOURI OZARKS REGION
THROUGH 8 PM.

  DISCUSSION:

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
ADEQUATE WIND SHEAR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED STRONGER
STORMS...MAINLY NEAR THE FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...RESULTING IN WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

DSA