Winter Storm in Kansas, December 8, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
405 PM CST WED DEC 7 2005

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE AMOUNT OF SNOW AND TIMING WHEN IT ENDS.
THEN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.

HAVE HAD SEVERAL BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE
EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES STARTING AROUND MID MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON.   PARTS OF ANDERSON AND COFFEY COUNTIES HAD 3 TO 4 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL.  1 TO 2 INCHES HOWEVER MORE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA.
GIVEN THE MORNING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...UPGRADED THE SNOW ADVISORY TO
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF
TURNPIKE FOR REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.   USING AN 20 TO 1
RATIO FOR QPF TO SNOWFALL.  UPPER LOW BY SATELLITE AND WIND
PROFILERS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND MODELS FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH
SLIDING LOW JUST ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER REACHING
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST KANSAS BY 18Z THURSDAY.  SURFACE
FEATURES SHOWING MORE OF INVERTED TROUGH OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS NOSING SOUTH.  ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVER THE COLD AIR HELPING WITH THE BANDED SNOW THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.  THIS LIFT SHIFTS EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUT LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING OVER
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE IN DEFORMATION ZONE.  EXPECT THIS TO
PUSH EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND EAST OF AREA AFTER 09Z. WENT MORE
WITH A COMPROMISE OF GFS/NAM/HPC QPF VALUES AND AGAIN USED THE ABOVE
MENTIONED RATIO.  THIS WOULD GIVE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES NORTH CENTRAL...TO 3 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE EAST CENTRAL WHERE
THE WINTER STORM WARNING WAS ISSUED EARLIER. TEMPERATURE WISE GOING
WITH LOWS JUST BELOW ZERO OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TO AROUND 5 DEGREES
OVER THE EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES.  EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
WIND SPEED TRENDS.  WENT A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE ON SPEEDS WHICH
GIVES WIND CHILL READINGS AROUND 15 BELOW ZERO OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEED WOULD YIELD
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA.

NO SGFNT WX EXPECTED BEYOND TONIGHT. APPEARS GFS AND EURO MODEL
CONSISTENT IN CDFNTL PASSAGE ABOUT EVERY 48 HOURS BEGINNING SATURDAY.
MAIN FCST PROBLEM UNTIL THEN IS AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT AND ITS EFFECT
ON TEMPERATURES. HAVE BEEN RATHER CONSERVATIVE IN WARMUP UNTIL THE
WEEKEND...AT LEAST UNTIL WE GET A GROUND TRUTH FEEL FOR DEPTH AND
AREAL COVERAGE OF ONGOING SNOW EVENT. EARLIER THOUGHTS ON FOG
POTENTIAL TMRW NIGHT STILL THERE...ALTHOUGH BNDRY WINDS APPEAR WILL
BE UP JUST ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THAT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PCPN AS
WELL WITH FRONTAL PASSAGES...BUT APPEARS MOISTURE QUITE LIMITED AND
DONT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INTRODUCE ANY PCPN.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER STORM WARNING GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A EMPORIA...TOPEKA TO VALLEY FALLS LINE UNTIL
6 AM.
SNOW ADVISORY FOR REST OF CWA UNTIL 6 AM...EXCEPT ONLY UNTIL
MIDNIGHT GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A ABILENE TO WASHINGTON LINE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
200 AM CST THU DEC 8 2005

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-090400-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-200 AM
200 AM CST THU DEC 8 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM LAWRENCE TO BURLINGTON THROUGH 6 AM THIS
THURSDAY MORNING. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS BETWEEN 6 AND 8 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS BETWEEN 8 AND 12
INCHES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR.

OTHER AREAS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS HAVE BEEN CLEARED
FROM WARNING AND ADVISORIES AS SNOW TAPERS OFF.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
858 PM CST WED DEC 7 2005

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-080500-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARYSVILLE...HIAWATHA...CONCORDIA...
CLAY CENTER...MANHATTAN...ABILENE...JUNCTION CITY...TOPEKA...
LAWRENCE...EMPORIA...OTTAWA
858 PM CST WED DEC 7 2005

HERE SOME STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS REPORTED BY COUNTY
OFFICIALS AND SPOTTERS ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 815 PM AND 845 PM...

ANDERSON...5 TO 7 INCHES.
BROWN...1 TO 2 INCHES.
CLAY...1 INCH.
CLOUD...1.5 TO 2 INCHES.
COFFEY...6 TO 8 INCHES.
DICKINSON...3 TO 4 INCHES.
DOUGLAS...3 TO 4 INCHES.
FRANKLIN...5 TO 8 INCHES.
GEARY...2 TO 3 INCHES.
JACKSON...2 TO 4 INCHES.
JEFFERSON...AROUND 5 INCHES.
LYON...3 TO 6 INCHES.
MARSHALL...AROUND 2 INCHES.
MORRIS...2 TO 5 INCHES.
NEMAHA...AROUND 1 INCH.
OSAGE...6 TO 8 INCHES.
OTTAWA...2 TO 2.5 INCHES.
POTTAWATOMIE...1 TO 4 INCHES.
REPUBLIC...2 INCHES.
RILEY...1.5 TO 2 INCHES.
SHAWNEE...4 TO 5 INCHES.
WABAUNSEE...1 TO 3 INCHES.
WASHINGTON...1 TO 2 INCHES.