Wildfire in Idaho, September 4 to 12, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO IDAHO
800 PM MDT SAT SEP 3 2005

.DISCUSSION...SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM SALT LAKE
AREA THIS EVENING SHOULD JUST BRUSH THE BEAR LAKE AREA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE INCREASING NEXT HOUR AND WINDS ALREADY
SHOWING SIGNS OF DECREASING THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 900 PM MDT. RS

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 245 PM MDT SAT SEP 3 2005...LATEST WV/IR
LOOP SHOWING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS FCST/A THIS AFTERNOON. NEXT
S/WV (ACROSS SOUTHERN UT) IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH AND GRAZE SE
ZONES LATE TONIGHT WITH GUSTY MAINLY DRY TSTMS. HAVE MENTIONED ISOL
POPS FOR SE SECTIONS (SOUTH AND EAST OF PIH) OVERNIGHT. RED FLAG
CRITERIA REMAINS MARGINAL AND WILL LET THE RED FLAG CONTINUE UNTIL 9
PM. WINDS SLIGHTLY LESS FOR SUNDAY SO NO WATCHES WILL BE MENTIONED.
LATEST GFS HAS ANOTHER S/WV SLIDING INTO NE ZONES LATE SUNDAY THUS
ISOL POPS MENTIONED FOR ZN19 SUNDAY EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS FOR
MONDAY/TUESDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST. 5H TROF WILL AMPLIFY
ALONG THE WEST COAST ON WED. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ID. MODELS PAINT SOME INSTABILITY ALONG
WITH INCREASING MI/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS AREA SO HAVE MENTIONED
POPS ACROSS MTNS WED NIGHT INTO THU. STILL UNCERTAIN IF THIS TROF
WILL SPLIT ACROSS AREA BUT LATEST GFS SUGGEST THAT SOUTHERN PIECE OF
TROF WILL SLIDE ACROSS AREA THU AND THEN SECOND SPOKE OF (NORTHERN
STREAM) ENERGY WILL SLIDE SE INTO REGION FOR THU NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY.
S/WV RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS AREA FOR SATURDAY. APPEARS MODELS
STARTING A FAST PROGRESSION OF MORE WINTER TYPE WAVES IN THE
EXTENDED.

WINTHER

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED
ALONG TWEB ROUTE 344 BETWEEN SODA SPRINGS AND ROCK SPRINGS UNTIL
04/0500Z.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNING/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS FOR SOUTHEAST IDAHO FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 405...406...407...409 AND 410 UNTIL 9 PM MDT TONIGHT.
SEE LATEST BULLETIN FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

&&

WEATHER INFORMATION ON-LINE 24-HOURS A DAY
(ALL LOWER-CASE LETTERS)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/POCATELLO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
430 AM MDT SAT 3 2005

IDZ017>025-031-032-031200-
LOST RIVER/PASHIMEROI-CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
430 AM MDT SAT SEP 3 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO

.DAY ONE...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED MAINLY DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.  GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED NEAR STORMS.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WIND CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER 25 MPH.
THE WIND...COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAS PROMPTED THE
ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING...REFER TO THE LATEST BULLETIN FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
DRY LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INLAND AND A COOL FRONT PASSES BY.  GUSTY WINDS TO 40
MPH AND DANGEROUS LIGHTING ARE EXPECTED.  ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS
SLATED FOR THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND POSSIBLY MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY.
SNOW MAY FALL ABOVE 7000 FEET WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS STORM.
OUTDOOR ENTHUSIASTS SHOULD LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL
MEDIA FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THE COLD AIR POTENTIAL OF THIS STORM.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WE ASK ALL TRAINED SPOTTERS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THIS WOULD INCLUDE ALL HAIL...WIND...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING REPORTS.
THIS INFORMATION SHOULD BE CALLED INTO THE LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...
OR OTHER STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO/IDAHO FALLS ID
1113 PM MDT SAT SEP 03 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 PM     TSTM WND GST     POCATELLO               42.88N 112.47W
09/03/2005  50 MPH           BANNOCK            ID   NWS EMPLOYEE

            THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED 40 TO 50 MPH. SMALL
            TWIGS AND TREE BRANCHES DOWN.

&&

RSURVICK