New Mexico, 2005Flash Flood in New Mexico, September 4, 2005
September 4, 2005 · NWS MAF · 1 event in 1 county or zone
1 flash flood, as filed by the National Weather Service.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
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- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 1
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 4, 12:26 PM MST, 3 hours 41 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 4, 12:26 PM MST, 3 hours 41 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
226 PM CDT SUN SEP 4 2005
.SHORT TERM...
THE AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OF THE
MULTICELL PULSE VARIETY AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...BUT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS A POSSIBILITY GIVEN STORM VELOCITIES NEAR 5 M/S
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3 CM. THE SCATTERED
NATURE OF THIS CONVECTION PRECLUDES A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD THREAT
AND THUS WE WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH...HOWEVER...WE HAVE MENTIONED
THIS THREAT IN THE HWO.
CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS THE
COMBINATION OF SPREADING COLD POOLS AND SENSIBLE HEATING LOSS
COMBINE TO STABILIZE THE PBL. THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT OVERNIGHT...AND WITH A NEARLY MOIST
ADIABATIC PROFILE...LITTLE LIFT IS NEEDED TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST
ELEVATED SHOWERS.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A WARM BIAS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...
CONSEQUENTLY WE WILL TREND THE MIN TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS
TONIGHT STRONGLY TOWARD PERSISTENCE. POP...SKY...AND ASSOCIATED
SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS WERE DRAWN TO REFLECT CHANCE CATEGORY POPS
FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO SOUTH INTO THE BIG BEND...THEN TAPERING
OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED CATEGORY ACROSS FAR EASTERN ZONES
THIS EVENING. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES OVER FAR WESTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WHILE
WE EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...QPF WAS SCALED BACK CONSIDERABLY OVER WHAT THE GFS
SUGGESTS. LASTLY...WIND GRIDS REFLECT THE NAM12 FORECAST AVERAGED
WITH A BLEND OF NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE THEN TEMPERED A BIT FOR
LOCAL EFFECTS.
.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE CWA WITH WEAK A SHEAR AXIS AND
THETA-E RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION. BY MONDAY
EVENING THE THETA-E RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE WEST AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS OVER THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS AND THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. BY MONDAY NIGHT THE POPS WILL BE MOVED TO THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS
WITH MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. BY TUESDAY...THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE TO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS THE THETA-E
RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE WEST. DRY WEATHER IS INDICATED IN
THE PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A
VERY SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED. MOST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S
WITH 80S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
60S WITH A FEW 70S ALONG THE BORDER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 67 89 66 91 / 20 10 10 10
CARLSBAD NM 65 87 65 90 / 40 30 30 20
DRYDEN TX 71 91 71 91 / 30 20 10 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 70 87 68 89 / 40 20 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 63 83 62 82 / 50 30 30 20
HOBBS NM 66 88 66 90 / 40 30 30 20
MARFA TX 58 81 58 84 / 40 30 30 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 67 89 67 91 / 30 10 10 10
ODESSA TX 67 89 67 91 / 30 20 10 10
WINK TX 72 92 69 95 / 30 20 10 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
70/54
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 4, 11:51 AM MST, 4 hours 16 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
151 PM CDT SUN SEP 4 2005
NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-051200-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
151 PM CDT SUN SEP 4 2005 /1251 PM MDT SUN SEP 4 2005/
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
WEST OF A LAMESA...MIDLAND...TO SANDERSON LINE. RAINFALL RATES
NEAR AN INCH PER HOUR MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ARROYOS...
DRAWS...LOW WATER CROSSINGS...AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS. WIND
GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE ALSO
LIKELY. WHILE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIE OFF WITHIN A FEW HOURS
OF SUNSET...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND
Flash Flood, Eddy
- When
- September 4, 4:07 PM MST to 7:00 PM MST
- Where
- Eddy County, 8 mi S of Carlsbad
- Reported by
- TRAINED SPOTTER
- Coordinates
- 32.300, -104.233
A trained spotter reported that two feet of water flowed out of bar ditches and covered County Road 748, eight to thirteen miles south of Carlsbad.
- Flash Flood
- Flooding that begins within six hours of the rain that causes it, or of a dam or levee failure or ice jam release, often with deadly speed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Lightning Strike in Iowa, September 4, 20051 death · 1 injured · 1 event
- High Surf in Hawaii, September 4 to 8, 200511 events
- Flash Flood and Hail in North Dakota, September 4 to 5, 20051 in hail · 11 events
- Dense Fog in Wisconsin, September 4 to 5, 20056 events
- Wildfire in Idaho, September 4 to 12, 20053 events
- Flash Flood and Hail in Utah, September 4, 20050.75 in hail · 2 events
- Wildfire in Idaho, September 4 to 12, 20051 event
- Wildfire in Idaho, September 4 to 18, 20051 event
- Wildfire in Idaho, September 4 to 14, 20051 event
- Damaging Wind in Nebraska, September 4, 200551 kt wind · 1 event
- Damaging Wind in Kansas, September 4, 2005$1,000 · 56 kt wind · 1 event
- Damaging Wind in Idaho, September 4, 200565 kt wind · 1 event
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5478764.