High Surf in Hawaii, September 4 to 8, 2005

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST SUN SEP 4 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THE TRADE WINDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL TYPICALLY FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS MAINLY DURING
THE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING HOURS...EXCEPT FOR THE KONA COAST...WHERE
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING
HOURS.

 &&

.DISCUSSION...
THE BROAD BAND OF INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WE WERE WATCHING DID
NOT DISAPPOINT OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST WINDWARD GAGES REPORTING
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. IT WAS A BIT OF A SURPRISE HOW MANY SHOWERS
MADE IT OVER INTO LEEWARD AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...DUE IN PART
TO STRONGER THAN EXPECTED WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAIN RANGES AND A
DEEPER MOIST LAYER. WINDWARD AREAS OF KAUAI AND OAHU RECEIVED
UPWARDS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 2
AM...WITH LEEWARD SECTIONS SECTIONS UP TO ONE TENTH. WINDWARD BIG
ISLAND AND MAUI TOTALS WERE A TAD LOWER OVERALL. EARLY MORNING
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SECOND AND LARGER FIELD OF MOISTURE ON
THE HEELS OF THE CURRENT BAND...SO WHILE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT. TODAY AND LABOR DAY SHOULD START OFF ON THE
SHOWERY SIDE IN THE EARLY MORNING...THEN BECOME DRIER AND IMPROVE AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES.

AND THEN THERE WERE TWO...WHEREAS WE WERE LOOKING AT FOUR DISTINCT
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST PACIFIC
YESTERDAY MORNING...THESE HAVE SINCE COMBINED INTO TWO. THESE TWO
RELATIVELY SMALL AND WEAK HIGHS WILL FURTHER CONSOLIDATE INTO A
SINGLE HIGH CENTER BY LATE MONDAY. THE HIGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO STRONG
TRADES WILL DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK BEFORE LOWERING BACK DOWN TO THEIR PRESENT STRENGTH INTO
THE WEEKEND. WITH STIFF TRADES AND RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE...EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF THE USUAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA
SHOWERS IN THE MAINLY NIGHT THROUGH MORNING HOURS. ACROSS THE
SMALLER ISLANDS...THE STRONGER TRADES WILL PUSH MORE SHOWERS OVER
LEEWARD SECTIONS. THE USUAL EXCEPTIONS ARE THE KONA AND
KIHEI/MAKENA COASTS...WHERE CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL FAVOR
THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SWELLS FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SURF
FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH LABOR DAY. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY LEVEL THRESHOLD OF 8 FEET. THE
STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE POSTED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ROUGH SHORT PERIOD SURF FROM THESE STRONG
TRADE WINDS MAY ALSO REQUIRE HIGH SURF ADVISORIES FOR EAST FACING
SHORES AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE ARE TWO KEY
INGREDIENTS FOR TURBULENCE IN THE LEE OF THE ISLANDS AS MOUNTAIN
WAVES ARE GENERATED. BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR AIRMETS DUE TO MODERATE
TURBULENCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND BEYOND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MAALAEA BAY AND BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

TANABE