High Wind in Idaho, November 14, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO IDAHO
310 PM MST SUN NOV 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THRU MONDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION TODAY FAIRLY
LIGHT SO FAR UNDER WARM ADVECTION PATTERN...WITH SNOW CHANGING OVER
TO RAIN IN THE MAGIC VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SNAKE PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER PORTIONS OF SNAKE PLAIN AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4700 FEET HAVE
REMAINED SNOW SO FAR.  STILL EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO GRADUAL RISE
OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 5000 FEET WITH SNOW AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH
IN THE SNAKE PLAIN AND UP TO 6 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS BELOW 9KFT.
SFC PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENING OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL JET NOSES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER NORTHERN
MONTANA.  EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN INCREASING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND REACH
WARNING CRITERIA IN ZONES 17/21 NEAR SUNRISE AND REMAIN STRONG
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 MPH AND GUSTS TO AROUND
55 MPH.  UPPER VALLEY ZONE 20 WILL ALSO RECEIVE GUSTY WINDS MEETING
ADVISORY CRITERIA...HOWEVER NW FLOW FAVORS LOWER VALLEY FOR
STRONGEST WINDS.  WINDS IN THE UPPER VALLEY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 35
MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH.  OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER IN CENTRAL MTNS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO EASTERN HIGHLANDS WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING
AND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE. HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR MONDAY WILL OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING OR HOLDING STEADY BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
FRONT.  BY MONDAY NIGHT...SFC GRADIENT SLACKENING AS U/L JET AND SFC
LOW PULL FURTHER EAST BUT TEMPS CONTINUE TO SLIDE AS 7H TEMPS RANGE
FROM -10C TO -18C ACROSS FCST AREA. RAPID CLEARING BEHIND DEPARTING
LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THEIR COLDEST
LEVELS SO FAR THIS FALL/WINTER WITH TEMPS BELOW ZERO AT SNT AND IPR
AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ELSEWHERE.  DSH
&&

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND...MODELS
PERSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG WEST COAST RIDGE.  LATEST
PMDEPD THINKING THIS PATTERN MAY HOLD INTO THE END OF THE MONTH.  IF
SO...MILD DAYS AND COLD NIGHTS WITH DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE STORY.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED ON THE WEST COAST BY THE WEEKEND WHICH
WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST IDAHO IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
STILL BELIEVE THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DEALING WITH STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS.  AT
THIS TIME...HAVE GONE WITH TREND OF COLDER VALLEYS AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER RIDGE TOPS.  OTHERWISE HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO ANY
EXTENDED HIGH LOW TEMPS.  LOW TEMPS ON TUE AND WED WERE ALREADY
COLD...AND HAVE NUDGED THEM DOWN A LITTLE MORE...AS IT WILL BE
COLD.  IF VALLEY INVERSIONS REMAIN DEEP AND COLD...THESE TEMPS HAVE
TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN IN THE FUTURE.  HAVE NOT ADDED ANY VALLEY FOG
INTO EXTENDED PACKAGE AT THIS TIME BUT THAT MAY HAVE TO ADDED IN
LATER ISSUANCE.  MEYER

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS.  CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE FROM MVFR/IFR THIS AFTERNOON TO IFR/LIFR TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. TOMORROW WILL BECOME VERY WINDY AS A POWERFUL COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH EARLY IN THE MORNING.  LOCAL GUSTS AROUND 50KTS
POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z.  MEYER

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNING/ADVISORIES...A HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND
ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO.  SEE
LATEST BOINPWPIH BULLETIN FOR DETAILS.

&&

WEATHER INFORMATION ON-LINE 24-HOURS A DAY
(ALL LOWER-CASE LETTERS)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/POCATELLO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
845 AM MST SUN NOV 13 2005

IDZ017>025-031-032-141300-
LOST RIVER/PASHIMEROI-CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
510 AM MST SUN NOV 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO

.DAY ONE...
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO TODAY WITH
SNOW GENERALLY ABOVE 5500 FEET BY TONIGHT. THIS EVENING...WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OVER THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS POISED TO SWING THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO FROM
THE NORTH EARLY MONDAY. VERY STRONG WINDS ARE AGAIN FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THEN CONTINUE BEHIND THE
FRONT AS IT DROPS INTO UTAH. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR FALL THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...BRINGING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO VALLEY FLOORS OVER MOST OF
EASTERN IDAHO. BY TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE INTO
THE REGION WITH DRY AND GENERALLY COOL CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WE ASK ALL TRAINED SPOTTERS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THIS WOULD INCLUDE ALL HAIL...WIND...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING REPORTS.
THIS INFORMATION SHOULD BE CALLED INTO THE LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...
OR OTHER STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WEATHER INFORMATION ON-LINE 24-HOURS A DAY
(ALL LOWER-CASE LETTERS)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/POCATELLO