Flash Flood in Georgia, July 7, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
357 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
6Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF CINDY OVER CENTRAL AL WITH A TMB
FEATURE RUNNING FROM KMCN NE TO KAGS AND KCAE. NE SFC FLOW REMAINS
OVER THE CWA NORTH OF THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. CAPES ALONG
MOISTURE BOUNDARY POOLING TO 500-1000 J/KG. SREF AND GFS SHOW THAT
0-1 KM HELICITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE FA THROUGH 12Z TO 200-300
M2/S2. AS CINDY APPROACHES...MOISTURE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FURTHER
INTO THE FA...INCREASING THE TOR THREAT THIS MORNING EAST OF THE
MTNS. TORNADO WATCH 617 HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 10 AM.

WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ROTATING INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS...RAINFALL RATES SHOULD ACCELERATE THIS MORNING. GFS IS
DEFINITELY THE MODEL OF CHOICE AS IT HAS PREFERRED TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF MAIN FEATURES...COULD BE A TAD TOO SLOW THOUGH. KGSP
VAD SHOWS UPSLOPE FLOW IMPROVING BETWEEN 3-5 KFT OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL VOLUME SCANS. RADAR ESTIMATES THAT HEAVIER CELLS PRODUCE
1-2 AN HOUR. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM DEVELOP A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AFTER
12Z. W/V CONFIRMS THAT LIFT IS BEGINNING OVER EASTERN TN. THE RESULT
COULD BE A SHARP LINE FROM HEAVY RAINFALL TO LIGHT AMOUNTS.
NEVERTHELESS...EVERY INCH OF THE FA WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND
AT LEAST ONE PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TODAY. WILL LEAVE FLOOD WATCH IN
PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE FA UNTIL 6 AM FRI. EXPECT BY FRI
MORNING...REPORTS OF 4-5 WILL BE COMMON IN THE MTNS...WITH AROUND
AN INCH OVER THE EXTREME EAST.

CONDITIONS WILL START TO DRY TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW PULL
NE...LEAVING THE FA IN DRY SLOT AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. WILL REDUCE POPS
TO CHC AROUND MIDNIGHT...SCHC JUST ALONG THE TN LINE BY 10Z FRI.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FRI AND SAT AM. BY SAT
AFTERNOON...COASTAL FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT WEST AS HURCN DENNIS
MOVES OFF THE WEST COAST OF FL. AS DENNIS MOVE NORTH...TROPICAL
PLUME SHOULD MOVE OVER THE FA. WITH LIS COOLING ALONG THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT COVERAGE TO ADVANCE FURTHER WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
FA REMAINS UNDER A STATIONARY FRONT AS DENNIS MOVES ON SHORE EARLY
IN THE WEEK. WILL INCREASE SKY AND POPS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY WEEK. GFS INDICATES THAT THE CORE OF DENNIS WILL REMAIN
WELL WEST OF THE FA. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HANDLE DETAILS AFTER MON.
&&

.AVIATION...
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE LOWERING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH 12Z AS SURFACE LOW OVER GA APPROACHES SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.  UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL AND RESULT IN
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. MVFR
CONDITIONS VCNTY GSP... AND... AND AVL WILL LOWER TO PERIODIC IFR
AROUND SUNRISE AND CONTINUE UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 20Z.  THEREAFTER...
VSBY WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE 3 MI AND CIG WILL BECOME OVERCAST AROUND
4K FT.  CIG AND VSBY CLT AND HKY WILL LOWER BY SUNRISE TO AROUND 3K
FT WITH VSBY 3-5 MI IN SHOWERS AND FOG THEN IMPROVE TO VFR BY 23Z.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END AS CIGS AND VSBYS IMPROVE FROM WEST TO
EAST FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS AREA DURING DAY
REACHING VA AFT 00Z.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLOOD WATCH FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029 UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY.
NC...FLOOD WATCH FOR NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082 UNTIL 6 AM
     FRIDAY.
SC...FLOOD WATCH FOR SCZ001>014-019 UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...LGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
613 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-071000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
613 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS EVENING.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT IN NATURE. HOWEVER...COVERAGE
OF HEAVY TROPICAL RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...AS THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM CINDY APPROACH. THIS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF
FLOODING AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS THE AREA. PLEASE SEE THE
FLOOD WATCH...CAEFFAGSP AND THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...
CAESPSGSP FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE THREAT FOR FLOODING AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH
CINDY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THURSDAY EVENING. AFTER
THURSDAY...THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AND CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
SPOTTERS SHOULD RELAY ANY REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN...FLOODING...OR
DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1232 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ062>064-SCZ001>006-010>012-019-
070645-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...
HARTWELL...ELBERTON...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...GREENVILLE...
ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...GREENWOOD
1232 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH EARLIER CAUSED TORNADOES
OR WIND DAMAGE AND FLASH FLOODING APPROACHING EXTREME NORTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...

THE FIRST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE REMNANTS OF CINDY WAS
MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. BASED ON CURRENT
MOVEMENT...SOME STRONG STORMS COULD REACH FRANKLIN COUNTY...HART
COUNTY...STEPHENS COUNTY...HABERSHAM COUNTY...RABUN COUNTY...AND
ELBERT COUNTY BETWEEN 1 AM AND 2 AM EDT. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS...AND A GREATER
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. THESE STORMS CAUSED DAMAGE AND FLASH
FLOODING AROUND THE ATLANTA AREA.

RADAR HAS ESTIMATED THAT AS MUCH AS A HALF INCH TO INCH OF RAIN
HAS OCCURRED ALREADY ACROSS PARTS OF RABUN...HABERSHAM...AND
STEPHENS COUNTIES. WHEN RAINFALL REACHES MORE THAN 2
INCHES...BECAUSE OF EXISTING WET GROUND CONDITIONS...FLASH
FLOODING WILL BECOME MORE OF A THREAT...AND WARNINGS WILL BE
REQUIRED SOON AFTER THAT. FLASH FLOODING DEVELOPS QUICKLY
FOLLOWING THE ONSET OF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND CAUSES RAPID RISES IN
SMALL STREAMS...AND FILLS LOW AREAS ON ROADS VERY QUICKLY. AT
NIGHT...THE DANGER OF FLASH FLOODING IS MUCH GREATER.

LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
321 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

GAZ010-017>018-026-028>029-NCZ035>036-056>057-069-071>072-
082-SCZ001>014-019-071400-
ELBERT-FRANKLIN-HABERSHAM-HART-RABUN-STEPHENS-ALEXANDER-CABARRUS-
CATAWBA-IREDELL-LINCOLN-MECKLENBURG-ROWAN-UNION-ABBEVILLE-
ANDERSON-CHEROKEE-CHESTER-GREENVILLE--GREENWOOD-LAURENS-OCONEE--
PICKENS--SPARTANBURG-UNION-YORK-
321 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 617 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREA...

IN GEORGIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES

IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA

ELBERT... FRANKLIN... HABERSHAM...
HART... RABUN... STEPHENS...

IN NORTH CAROLINA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 12 COUNTIES

IN PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA

CABARRUS... CLEVELAND... GASTON...
IREDELL... LINCOLN... MECKLENBURG...
ROWAN... UNION...

IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA

ALEXANDER... CATAWBA... POLK...
RUTHERFORD...

IN SOUTH CAROLINA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 12 COUNTIES

IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA

ABBEVILLE... ANDERSON... CHEROKEE...
CHESTER... GREENVILLE... GREENWOOD...
LAURENS... OCONEE... PICKENS...
SPARTANBURG... UNION... YORK...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ABBEVILLE...ANDERSON...
CARNESVILLE...CHARLOTTE...CHESTER...CLARKESVILLE...CLAYTON...
COLUMBUS...CONCORD...EASLEY...ELBERTON...GAFFNEY...GASTONIA...
GREENVILLE...GREENWOOD...HARTWELL...HICKORY...LAURENS...
LINCOLNTON...MONROE...MOORESVILLE...NEWTON...ROCK HILL...
RUTHERFORDTON...SALISBURY...SHELBY...SPARTANBURG...STATESVILLE...
TAYLORSVILLE...TOCCOA...UNION AND WALHALLA.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE MILES
NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF ATHENS GEORGIA
TO 30 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF CHARLOTTE NORTH CAROLINA.

NED