Storm Surge in Florida, September 9, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
225 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2005

...OPHELIA EXPECTED TO HAVE MERCY ON US IN THE SHORT-TERM...BUT WILL
NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED THIS WEEKEND...

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA IS LOCATED ABOUT 150 MI E OF
FLAGLER BEACH FL THIS AFTN WITH THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT OUTER RAINBAND
AFFECTING OUR AREA TRAINING OVER FLAGLER COUNTY. FLAGLER EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT HAS RELAYED MINOR FLOODING IN PALM COAST TODAY WHERE DAILY
RAINFALL HAS TOTALED NEAR 2 INCHES IN SOME AREAS...WHICH BRING 3 DAY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 5 TO ALMOST 10 INCHES AT A FEW SITES. OPHELIA
HAS SLOWLY ADVANCED ENE TODAY AS SHE HAS BEEN PICKED-UP BY WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NOW PUSHING DOWNSTREAM OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
MEANWHILE A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. LOCALLY CURRENT LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES IS
BEING SATISFIED WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH
GUSTS IN THE MID-30 MPH RANGE. WINDS HAVE ACTUALLY BACK MORE NLY AND
THIS HAS RESULTED IN SLIGHTLY LOWER SURF REPORTS ALONG THE GA COAST
(3-5 FT) AND REDUCED THE BEACH EROSION HAZARD SLIGHTLY. HIGH SURF
AND MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION CONTINUE HOWEVER ALONG THE FL
COAST...MAINLY FROM PONTE VEDRA BEACH SWD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THRU MON...
HAVE LEANED HEAVILY ON THE GFS SOLUTION AND MAV MOS WHICH SEEM TO
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION. AS OPHELIA MOVES
EASTWARD TONIGHT...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
KEEPING RAIN CHANCES MINIMAL FOR MOST INLAND AREAS THIS WEEKEND. THE
AREAS OF EXCEPTION WILL BE THE COAST AND A LINE FROM PALATKA TO THE
OCALA FOREST WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE OUTER RAINBAND PRECIP ON THE
EXTREME WESTERN FRINGE OF OPHELIA AS SHE LINERS OFFSHORE. MON HAVE
INDICATED INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM THE EAST AS OPHELIA IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK BACK WESTWARD...TOWARD THE SE ATLANTIC COAST...AS
UPPER LVL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND BRIDGES THE
CYCLONE.

TEMPS IN THE SHORT-TERM ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...WITH MINS IN
THE UPR 60S INLAND AND LOWER-MID 70S ALONG THE RIVER AND COAST. THE
LAKE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 8 PM THIS EVENING...AND WILL THE
EVENING SHIFT EVALUATE IF IT NEEDS TO BE CONTINUED FOR THE COAST
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL NOT BE NEEDED AS
OPHELIA MOVES FURTHER EAST AND THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
SOMEWHAT AS WINDS BACK MORE TO THE NNW.

.LONG TERM...TUE THRU FRI...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO THE
EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF OPHELIA. HAVE USED THE GFS SOLUTION
WHICH GENERALLY CORRESPONDS TO THE LATEST HPC FORECAST TRACK IN THE
EXTENDED FOR OPHELIA. DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS TO LOW CHANCE AND HAVE
LOADED IN THE TCM WIND GRIDS WHICH INDICATE WINDS OVER OUR WATERS
NEARING GALE/TROPICAL STORM FORCE LATE MONDAY. AGAIN...ALL THIS
DEPENDS ON THE TRACK...SIZE AND INTENSITY OF OPHELIA. IT IS HIGHLY
SUGGESTED THAT LOCAL INTERESTS CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
FORECAST FOR OPHELIA THIS WEEKEND...BECAUSE SHE MAY VERY WELL
CONFRONT THE JAX CWA NEXT WEEK ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS RUNNING 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND 9 TO 12 FEET
RESPECTIVELY THIS AFTERNOON AS OPHELIA GRADUALLY PULLS TO THE
NORTHEAST. FEEL THAT WITH MOTION OF STORM...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS HAVE EXITED THE OUTERMOST WATERS SO WILL DROP THE
MARINE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH AFTERNOON ISSUANCE. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SATURDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE ON
THE ROUGH SIDE WITH SEAS STILL UP NEAR 9 FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS
AS SWELL CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED BY OPHELIA. FORECAST TRACK REMAINS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SO FORECAST FROM SUNDAY FORWARD IS SUBJECT TO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

ALTHOUGH COASTAL AREAS MAY SEE A BRIEF DROP IN BREAKER HEIGHTS
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...INCREASING SWELL COMPONENT BY LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE SIZE OF THE BREAKERS
ONCE AGAIN. IN FACT...LOCAL SWAN WAVE MODEL INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY
OF 9 TO 10 FOOT BREAKERS ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST BY SUNDAY.
WILL HOLD ONTO HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NOW AND LET EVENING SHIFT
DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT TO DROP IT IN THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  66  91  65  90 /  10  10   0   0
SSI  73  86  73  85 /  20  20  10  10
JAX  70  89  69  87 /  20  20  10  10
SGJ  75  86  74  86 /  30  30  20  20
GNV  69  89  68  90 /  10  10  10  10
OCF  69  89  68  90 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CLAY...DUVAL...FLAGLER...NASSAU...PUTNAM...AND ST JOHNS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     DUVAL...FLAGLER...NASSAU...AND ST JOHNS.

GA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL CAMDEN...AND COASTAL GLYNN.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL CAMDEN...AND COASTAL GLYNN.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60
     NM OFFSHORE...ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
     20 NM...FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE...FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
     NM...ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM AND
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

PUBLIC...ENYEDI
MARINE/FIRE WX...CAMP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1029 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2005

UPDATED TO DROP TROPICAL STORM WATCH

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-101000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
1029 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2005

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...
...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR NASSAU...DUVAL...ST JOHNS...
FLAGLER...CLAY...PUTNAM...COASTAL CAMDEN AND GLYNN COUNTIES...

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE STRONG
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA AND PRODUCE LARGE OCEAN
SWELLS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES AS WELL AS LARGE BREAKERS. SEE THE LATEST COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT FOR MORE INFORMATION.

SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE ASHORE BEFORE
WEAKENING TODAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AS WELL AS PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME
AREAS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE SOME TRAINING OF SHOWERS...RESULTING IN
MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND
GRADUALLY RE-STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THE DIRECT IMPACTS NEXT WEEK FOR THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AREA. WHAT IS CERTAIN IS THAT
THE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH A
CONTINUATION OF HIGH SURF...MODERATE BEACH EROSION...AND POSSIBLY
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING.

INTERESTS IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SHOULD MONITOR
THE LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST AND STATEMENTS FROM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE ON THIS SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING OR HIGH WINDS TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND LOCAL COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

MKT/ABE