Strong Wind in Nevada, September 9, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
930 AM PDT FRI SEP 9 2005

.UPDATE...UPPER LOW TRACKING SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL CA THIS MORNING
SIMILAR TO GFS TRACK. OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND FEW TSTMS OVER LASSEN
COUNTY IN DEFORMATION ZONE N OF LOW. NEW LIGHTNING STRIKES W OF
FRESNO UNDER UPPER COLD POOL WHICH WILL MOVES OVER MONO AND MINERAL
COUNTY LATER THIS MORNING. VIS SAT LOOP SHOWING CONVECTION DVLPG
OVER SIERRA AND WHITE MTNS IN MONO COUNTY SO HAVE UPDATED TO
ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES TODAY.
STRONGER WLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SHIFT CONVECTION EWD OFF
SIERRA CREST IN W CENTRAL NV VALLEYS. MODELS TRENDING NEXT TROUGH
IN PAC NW ABOUT 60 METERS DEEPER WITH JET FURTHER S OVER NV THIS
WEEKEND. MID SHIFT ALREADY MADE MOST ADJUSTMENTS BRINGING SHOWERS
FURTHER S INTO RENO-TAHOE AREA AND COOLER TEMPS THIS WEEKEND. CYLKE

.PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...
CLOSED UPPER LOW HAS NOT REALLY ADVANCED EASTWARD AS MUCH AS
ANTICIPATED...WITH ITS CENTER STILL AROUND THE BAY AREA. IT HAS
RECENTLY BEGAN TO GET PUSHED SOUTH BY THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE STRONG
UPPER LOW FROM BC. 00Z MODELS PICKING UP ON THIS AND OPEN THE LOW
TODAY...LETTING IT GET PUSHED SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA
TODAY BEFORE IT PHASES INTO THE BC LOW. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE AS
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CAPTURING THIS WELL. ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN LASSEN AND WASHOE COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING
AND DEFORMATION ZONE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD A BIT AS LOW TRACKS SE.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON. THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO
DROP AND HIGHS WILL BE SOME 7-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY (WITH
LESS COOLING IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES). WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT LOW SQUEEZES DOWN INTO WASHINGTON AND I ISSUED
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR PYRAMID LAKE. SOUTH LAKE TAHOE WILL BE A
BIT MORE MARGINAL...BUT I WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED ANYHOW. SHOWERS
RETURN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE...BUT WITH
THE CLOUDS AND WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL TO THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL TONIGHT. THE LOW REMAINS IN WASHINGTON ON SATURDAY AND
THEN TAKES ON A POSITIVE TILT...WITH ITS TROF REACHING
SOUTHWESTWARD OFF OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS KEEPS
LOWERED HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH A COUPLE
PERIODS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTHERN COUNTIES. I KEPT POP GRIDS
AS-IS FOR THE WEEKEND. I DID DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH THE CONTINUED SUPPORT OF MODELS DURING THE PAST WEEK OF
KEEPING THESE HEIGHTS LOW. I ALSO DROPPED OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHTS IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA...WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. SHULZ

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST. TROUGH TO FILL OVER THE
EAST PACIFIC AND WESTERN U.S. WITH A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF
AIRMASS. LAST PIECE OF ENERGY WITH WEEKEND TROUGH WILL LIKELY STAY
OVER EAST PACIFIC AND DROP INTO WEAK UPPER LOW/TROUGH THAT FORMS AS
AN EXTENSION OF FILLING WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. WILL REMOVE SHOWERS MONDAY BUT KEEP LOW POPS IN THE GRIDDED
DATA SET. LIGHT WINDS AND CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF TROUGH MAY REQUIRE
SOME POPS SIERRA AND SOUTHERN ZONES IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BUILD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL RISE AND MAY
REACH 80 DEGREES IN SOME WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS BY END OF PERIOD.
HOHMANN
&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO NORTH OF UPPER LOW MAINLY AFFECTING TWEB ROUTE
376 SOUTH OF KAAT WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS UPPER LOW FILLS AND
EJECTS EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEREFORE RULE TAF SITES AND TWEB ROUTES
TODAY. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED ALONG NORTHERN TWEB ROUTES
PRIOR TO 12Z SATURDAY AND KRNO TAF SITE 12Z-14Z SATURDAY MORNING.
HOHMANN
&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY NOON UNTIL 8PM THIS EVENING FOR NVZ002 AND
      NVZ004.
.CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY NOON UNTIL 8PM THIS EVENING FOR CAZ072.
&&