Hail and Damaging Wind in Florida, March 25, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE MELBOURNE FL
10 AM EST FRI MAR 25 2005

.DISCUSSION...

....POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...

SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ALREADY FIRING UP IN THE UNSTABLE AIR
MASS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. MORNING CAPE CANAVERAL
SOUNDING WAS INDICATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE AROUND 1.5
INCHES...0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES AROUND 185 M2/S2 AND 20 TO 30 KNOT
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. CAPE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED DRY AIR
ABOVE 15000 FEET WHICH WILL RAISE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
RADAR WAS DETECTING FAST MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE AND
NORTHWEST VOLUSIA...AND LIGHTNING STORMS AROUND DAYTONA BEACH. CLEAR
SKIES OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF CWA WILL HELP QUICKLY DESTABILIZE THE
AIR MASS THERE AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO START
DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. IN ADDITION THIS AREA STANDS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR A LATE SEA BREEZE AS SYNOPTIC P-GRAD DECREASES AS LOW
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E ALONG WRM FNT. OTHER TARGET AREA TO FOCUS
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FROM CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS ASSOCD WITH
CONVECTION ALONG WRM FNT TO PROPAGATE S. THIS AREA IS ALSO ALONG
EDGE OF DENSE CI CANOPY ENHANCING DIFF HEATING.

IN THE MORNING UPDATE WILL INC AWARENESS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
HAZARDOUS WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SSW FLOW IN WRM SECTOR WILL DECREASE THIS AFTN AS P-GRAD
SLACKENS. THIS WILL INC CHC OF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION ESP OVER THE
SRN WATERS AND WILL DEPICT THIS IN UPDATE. WILL ALSO MENTION STG WND
GUSTS WITH SOME OF CONVECTION MOVING OFFSHORE.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....BLOTTMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1200 PM EST FRI MAR 25 2005

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
252300-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-
INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-
ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-
1200 PM EST FRI MAR 25 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THE AIR MASS OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE TO
THE SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PENINSULA.
THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO RAISE THE LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS SHOWED DRIER AIR IN THE MIDDLE
LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT. ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING EXISTS ALONG THE COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTH
WERE A WEAK SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AT 25 TO 30 MPH.

SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE...PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...COIN SIZE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE
POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN A FEW STRONGER
STORMS.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
RECENT RAINFALL HAS LEFT MUCH OF THE GROUND OVER EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA NEAR SATURATION.  ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IN THESE AREAS
WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. STANDING WATER ON ROADS AND BRIDGE UNDER WILL CREATE
A DRIVING HAZARD AND DRIVERS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER LAND WILL QUICKLY APPROACH
THE INTRACOASTAL AND ATLANTIC WATERS FROM THE WEST. WIND GUSTS
OVER 34 KNOTS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND ROUGH
SEAS WILL RESULT. GET TO SAFE HARBOR BEFORE STORMS APPROACH.

...WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
STORMS OVER THE INTRACOASTAL AND COASTAL WATERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS. MARINERS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE TO THE WEST FOR
DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL
WATERWAY MAY ENCOUNTER INCREASED WIND SHEAR WHICH CAN PROMOTE THE
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF WATERSPOUTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER. FORMAL ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

WIMMER