Hail and Damaging Wind in Florida, March 25, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
130 PM EST FRI MAR 25 2005

.DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH FLORIDA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH DOWN THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD FALL APART BEFORE GETTING INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER THE OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS WILL MAKE IT
INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
OUTFLOW ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZES AND THE LAKE BREEZE SHOULD HELP
TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
AREAS OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WHERE THE SEA BREEZES...LAKE
BREEZE AND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACT...A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.

ELSEWHERE...THE SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COAST SHOULD BE INLAND LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPMENT TO BE OVER THE INLAND AREAS.

THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIE OUT EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE CWA DUE TO DEW POINTS IN
THE 70S AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

THE FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND...AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND TO BE AROUND THE
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA TAPPING TO ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE
SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW STRONG STORMS
OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS EACH AFTERNOON...DUE TO THE COLLISION OF
THE SEA BREEZES AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. THE MAIN THREATS WILL
BE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD GET UP TO
AROUND 90 OVER MOST OF THE CWA. THE RECORDS FOR THIS WEEKEND ARE:

MIAMI             89/89 (1984/1984)
FT LAUDERDALE     90/91 (1935/1928)
WEST PALM BEACH   95/94 (1928/1928)
NAPLES            90/90 (2002/2002)
LA BELLE          94/93 (1974/1974)
DEVILS GARDEN     91/91 (1994/1989)

SO PLAN ON MENTIONING NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR THE CWA THIS WEEKEND.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES WILL THEN MOVE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR A TRAILING
COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH0UGH SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY
EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE A PRE FRONTAL SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF THE
COLD  FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS SQUALL LINE COULD BE STRONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL AS THE MAIN THREATS.

ONCE THE FRONT CLEAR THE AREA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL ALSO
BRING IN DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER COMPARE TO THIS WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S INLAND TO 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...THE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FEET.
THE WINDS WILL THEN SWING TO THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AND INCREASE
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE SWING TO NORTHWEST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SEAS TO INCREASE TO
6 FEET ON MONDAY AND REMAIN AT 6 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  74  89 /  20  30  20  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  88  76  88 /  10  20  20  20
MIAMI            75  89  75  89 /  10  20  20  20
NAPLES           73  86  73  86 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SVR WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT FOR PALM BEACH AND GLADES COUNTIES.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

BAXTER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
112 PM EST FRI MAR 25 2005

FLZ063-067-068-252300-
GLADES-PALM BEACH EASTERN-PALM BEACH WESTERN-
112 PM EST FRI MAR 25 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM...

AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER, A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT ACROSS EASTERN
PALM BEACH COUNTY.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND DETAILED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND ON THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO. FOR
INFORMATION IN SPANISH, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY, AS VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG, ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

FLZ066-252300-
HENDRY-
112 PM EST FRI MAR 25 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON

AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND DETAILED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND ON THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO. FOR
INFORMATION IN SPANISH, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY, AS VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG, ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FLZ069>075-252300-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-EASTERN COLLIER-MAINLAND MONROE-MIAMI-
DADE METROPOLITAN-WESTERN BROWARD-WESTERN COLLIER-WESTERN MIAMI DADE-
112 PM EST FRI MAR 25 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON

VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL, GUSTY WINDS,
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND DETAILED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND ON THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO. FOR
INFORMATION IN SPANISH, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY, AS VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG, ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.