Hail in Texas, March 25, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
815 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

.UPDATE...
815 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 UPDATE
HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO CLEAR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH #77 FROM NORTH TEXAS. SATELLITE...UPPER AIR...AND MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF
THE EVENING WILL REMAIN THE BEST OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA.  UPDATED
WORDED AND GRAPHICAL FORECASTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT. #58

630 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 UPDATE
THE ZONES WERE UPDATED EARLIER TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #77.
THE VIEW OUTSIDE SHOWS THAT THE TOWERS ALONG THE TEXAS PART OF THE
DRYLINE DON/T LOOK TOO GOOD.  IT LOOKS LIKE MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF
THE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.  UNLESS THERE IS SOME
DRAMATIC DEVELOPMENT...THE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE CLEARED FROM THE
NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES AROUND 9 PM.  #58

&&

.AVIATION...
511 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING AT TAF RELEASE WITH
6-12 KT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO KDFW
TRACON JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH NORTHERLY FLOW 6-11KT FRIDAY.
SKIES REMAINING VFR WITH BKN-OVC DECK ABV 10000 FORMING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL JUST SLIDE INTO KACT TRACON BY MID TO LATE
MORNING WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY BRIEFLY THEN BECOMING
EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER SOUTHWEST
TEXAS.  75

&&

.DISCUSSION...
335 PM.
WILL CARRY SOME LOW POPS OVER THE NE CWA THIS EVENING AS A NARROW
RIBBON OF MID 50S DEWPOINTS INTERACTS WITH THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION.  COLD FRONT
ACROSS NRN OKLAHOMA DROPS SOUTH TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE
MOVING OUT AND AMALGAMATES WITH THE AFTERNOON DRY LINE OR SURFACE
TROUGH WHICH WILL BE ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.  RESULT
WILL BE A NORTH WIND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE
AND SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION.  FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE CWA
TOMORROW AS NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.

CAPES SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL APPROACH 1500J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD EASILY REACH THE 80S.  MODELS DO AGREE THAT A
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN AROUND SUNSET IN THE VERY FAST SWLY FLOW ALOFT.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...WITH STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS
SUGGESTIVE OF SPLITTING SUPERCELLS.  POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH
CORE 500 MB TEMPS NEAR -25C WILL ENTER THE TX PANHANDLE SATURDAY.
STRONG DYNAMICS...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR
305K WILL WORK IN CONCERT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION
WITH AN ATTENDANT SEVERE HAIL THREAT ACROSS THE EAST.  INDICATIONS
ARE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SUBSIDENT OR WORKED OVER BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND SATURDAY NIGHT WOULD BE DRIER.
SHOWED A DECREASING TREND WITH THE POPS SAT NIGHT...BUT SINCE IT IS
A DAY 3 FORECAST DID NOT GO AS LOW AS I WOULD LIKE BECAUSE MODELS
MAY CHANGE THE TIMING OF THESE SUBTLE FEATURES IN FUTURE RUNS.  BY
SUNDAY MORNING...MOST GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT WRAP AROUND
CLOUDS/RAIN.  SHOWED COOLER TEMPS...AND HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW WOULD FAVOR SUCH.

CLEAR AND COOL WEATHER FOR MONDAY...BEFORE SEASONABLE AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS RETURN.  NEXT UPPER SYSTEM IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE ACROSS
WEDNESDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED SO LOW POPS AT THIS
POINT ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE OVERKILL...BUT THERE IS NO COMPELLING
REASON TO REMOVE THEM FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

TR/92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  52  76  50  61 /   0   0  40  60
WACO, TX              53  83  54  68 /   0  20  40  50
PARIS, TX             53  74  50  61 /  20   0  40  60
DENTON, TX            51  73  49  59 /   0   0  40  60
MCKINNEY, TX          52  75  50  60 /   0   0  40  60
DALLAS, TX            53  77  51  62 /   0   0  40  60
TERRELL, TX           54  79  52  66 /   0   0  40  60
CORSICANA, TX         56  84  54  70 /   0  20  40  50
TEMPLE, TX            53  84  55  69 /   0  20  30  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
801 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

CORRECTED CODING.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-251100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
801 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS. LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF
THE STORMS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.