Hail in Colorado, July 1, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
145 AM MDT FRI JUL 01 2005

.DISCUSSION...THE MID/UPPER FLOW HAS TRANSITIONED TO NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS THE CLOSED LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES AREA MOVES EASTWARD AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS CONFINED
TO FAR WEST TEXAS/SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO.

A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AREA WILL DRIFT EASTWARD
AND APPROACH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE
SURFACE...MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
MOISTURE RETURN ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 90. EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 18-20Z ALONG A DIFFUSE DRY LINE
JUST WEST OF THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER AREA. THE ACTIVITY WILL
DRIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WITH UPPER WAVE AND
EXPECTED INSTABILITY/SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY
ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. KEPT A SCATTERED MENTION
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AMPLIFIES ON SATURDAY WITH SOME DEGREE OF
DOWNSLOPE WARMING EXPECTED TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES QUITE
DRAMATICALLY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S/AROUND 100.
COOLEST READINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE DEGREE OF
DOWNSLOPE IS LESS CERTAIN. MUCH OF THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED WITH WARM/DRY MID LEVEL AIR. THE
EASTERN THIRD REMAINS MORE UNCERTAIN AND WILL LIKELY KEEP AN
ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING MENTION AS BOUNDARY APPROACHES
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY.
SHEAR/INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE WORDING IN THE HWO AND
CONTINUED TO TREND POPS UP THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER
80S...HOWEVER LOCATIONS SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER 90S.

DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...NO CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.KS...NONE.
.NE...NONE.
.CO...NONE.

&&

MCGUIRE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1033 AM MDT FRI JUL 1 2005

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-021200-
CHEYENNE KS-CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-DECATUR KS-DUNDY NE-GOVE KS-GRAHAM KS-
GREELEY KS-HITCHCOCK NE-KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-LOGAN KS-NORTON KS-
RAWLINS KS-RED WILLOW NE-SHERIDAN KS-SHERMAN KS-THOMAS KS-WALLACE KS-
WICHITA KS-YUMA COUNTY CO-
1033 AM MDT FRI JUL 1 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A DRY LINE OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 1 PM
MDT. IN ADDITION AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL THEN SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE
WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LAMMERS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
145 PM MDT FRI JUL 1 2005

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-020300-
CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-DECATUR-DUNDY-GOVE-GRAHAM-GREELEY-HITCHCOCK-
KIT CARSON-LOGAN-NORTON-RAWLINS-RED WILLOW-SHERIDAN-SHERMAN-THOMAS-
WALLACE-WICHITA-YUMA-
145 PM MDT (245 PM CDT) FRI JUL 1 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 573 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT
(10 PM CDT...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 573 UNTIL 9 PM MDT (10 PM CDT) FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN
THE TRI-STATE AREA.

IN COLORADO: CHEYENNE...KIT CARSON AND YUMA

IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA: DUNDY...HITCHCOCK AND RED WILLOW

IN NORTHWEST KANSAS: CHEYENNE...RAWLINS...DECATUR...NORTON...
GRAHAM....SHERIDAN...THOMAS...SHERMAN...WALLACE...LOGAN...GOVE...
GREELEY AND WICHITA

HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...
AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE. REMEMBER...A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE
AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LAMMERS