Wildfire and Lightning Strike in California, September 20, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
315 AM PDT TUE SEP 20 2005

.SHORT TERM FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...NORTHWARD FLOW OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS UPPER LOW SPINS OFF THE CA
COAST NEAR PT CONCEPTION. FAIRLY STRONG PVA TO MOVE INLAND OVER
CENTRAL CA LATER THIS MORNING AND THRU THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE DAY...MOST NUMEROUS IN THE
MTNS. PRECIP IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW IS RATHER QUICK-MOVING SO MOST
QPF TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...HOWEVER SOME OF THE HEAVIER TSTMS
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED 1/4 INCH AMOUNTS IN A BRIEF PERIOD. THE LOW
IS FCST TO MOVE INLAND OVERNITE TONITE...WITH PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY
DIMINISHING. ON WED...THE LOW WILL WILL MOVE THRU THE GREAT
BASIN...WITH A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT RETURNING TO CENTRAL CA. ZONAL FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WED NITE AND THURS AS A RATHER STRONG
TROF BEGINS TO DIVE SOUTH THRU THE PAC NW. A LITTLE WARMER WED AND
AGAIN THURS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING TROF.

.LONG TERM...FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...00Z MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT. MODELS INDICATE THE
PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE. PROGS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL RIDGE INTO ALASKA AND WESTERN CANADA RESULTING IN A LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE WEST. AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE SHOULD STRENGTHEN
ONSHORE GRADIENTS AND START A COOLING TREND FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL FOLLOW RESULTING IN A CUTOFF UPPER LOW ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST ON SATURDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP DURING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SIERRA AS LATEST GFS SHOWS GOOD
DYNAMICS AS WELL AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING IN THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BRINGING
COLD AIR ALOFT AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. THE LOW FINALLY OPENS UP
AND LIFTING IT OUT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. SPECIFIC DETAILS CAN BE
FOUND IN THE TAFS FOR KMCE...KFAT AND KBFL.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD /USE ALL LOWER CASE/

BINGHAM/MV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
345 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2005

CAZ089>099-201200-
EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-INDIAN WELLS VALLEY-
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS-MARIPOSA MADERA AND FRESNO COUNTY FOOTHILLS-
SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-
SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT-SOUTHEASTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-TULARE COUNTY FOOTHILLS-
TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-WEST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
345 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
STATE. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR ON TUESDAY...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS...WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AFFECTING THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH CHANCES LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY ENDING THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION.
THEREFORE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THEIR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

DCH