Wildfire and Lightning Strike in California, September 20 to 21, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
855 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2005

.SHORT TERM FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...THE NORTHWARD
FLOW OF TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES UNDAUNTED THIS EVENING AS
JUSTIFIED BY SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY. AS OF THIS WRITING...
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ADVANCING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION
OF KERN COUNTY. (NOVICE OBSERVERS SHOULD NOTE THAT RADAR ECHOES
THAT ARE BEING DETECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN SJ VLY AT THIS TIME
IS CHAFF AND NOT PRECIPITATION.) HOWEVER...THE GENERAL MOVEMENT
OF THIS AP IS INDICATIVE OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WHICH
WILL BRING A RICHER SUPPLY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL
CA INTERIOR OVERNIGHT AND TUE.  ONE OF THE BIGGEST CONCERNS IS
WHETHER OR NOT THIS MOISTURE BECOMES DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING
MEASUREABLE RAIN TO THE VALLEY FLOOR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS.

THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE TO
EXIST BELOW 850 MB THRU 00Z WED WHILE SATURATING THE LAYERS ABOVE
IT. WHILE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN GOOD IN THIS REGARD...
VALLEY QPF HAS NOT. IN FACT...MODEL QPF IN FAT AND BFL HAS TRENDED
LOWER WITH SUCCESSIVE RUNS. THIS IS A TREND HNX FORECASTERS HAVE
TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION.  A LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW LONG THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OFFSHORE AND WINDS ALOFT BLOW FROM A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE 00Z NAM BRINGS A HEALTHY VORT MAX NORTHWARD
INTO OUR CWA AROUND DAYBREAK TUE AND FORECASTS IMPRESSIVE
UPPER DYNAMICS TO CONTINUE THRU MIDDAY TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE COMPLETELY NORTH OF OUR CWA TUE EVENING. WHILE
THIS SUPPORTS CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...IT POSES A
THREAT OF ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER THE SJ VLY TUESDAY.
CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REFLECTS THIS IDEA FAIRLY WELL
SO WILL LEAVE IT IN EFFECT.

THE 00Z MODELS ARE NOW SLOWER BRINGING THE CLOSED LOW ONSHORE...
POSITIONING IT NEAR STOCKTON BY 09Z WED. SO AREAS FROM FRESNO
COUNTY NORTHWARD WOULD REMAIN UNDER A THREAT OF ISOLD TSTMS INTO
THE EVENING HRS TUESDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE 00Z NAM FORECASTS
THE HIGHEST CAPES (450 JOULES/KG) TO OCCUR WITHIN 24 HRS.
ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE MODELS. WEDNESDAY
MAY NOT BRING THE KIND OF CLEARING AND DRYING TREND THAT WAS
PROMISED IN THE EARLIER ZONE PKG. MIDNIGHT CREW WILL NEED TO
REEVALUATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE SIERNEV
WEDNESDAY AS THE MODELS FORECAST MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK
DYNAMICS TO LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW AS IT FINALLY MOVES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...MODELS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOK REASONABLY
SIMILAR...DROPPING THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY AND DEVELOPING ANOTHER CLOSED LOW BY
SATURDAY...CENTERED SOMEWHERE FROM NEAR THE BAY AREA TO AROUND
CENTRAL NEVADA DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU CHOSE. GFS LOOKS LIKE A
GOOD MIDDLE OF THE ROAD CHOICE. IT WOBBLES THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY
NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE OPENING IT UP AND LIFTING IT OUT
MONDAY. THE UPSHOT WILL BE COOLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...THEN REBOUNDING A COUPLE OF DEGREES MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
LIFTS OUT. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE AS GOOD A MOISTURE
TAP AS THE CURRENT SYSTEM...AND FOR NOW THE DRY FORECAST EXCEPT FOR
VERY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SIERRA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS
OK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS
BEGINNING TONIGHT ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY BY 12Z TUESDAY. SPECIFIC
DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE TAFS FOR KMCE...KFAT AND KBFL.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD /USE ALL LOWER CASE/

DURFEE/JEB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
345 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2005

CAZ089>099-201200-
EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-INDIAN WELLS VALLEY-
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS-MARIPOSA MADERA AND FRESNO COUNTY FOOTHILLS-
SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-
SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT-SOUTHEASTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-TULARE COUNTY FOOTHILLS-
TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-WEST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
345 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
STATE. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR ON TUESDAY...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS...WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AFFECTING THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH CHANCES LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY ENDING THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION.
THEREFORE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THEIR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

DCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
951 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2005

CAZ089>099-201100-
WEST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-SOUTHEASTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
MARIPOSA MADERA AND FRESNO COUNTY FOOTHILLS-TULARE COUNTY FOOTHILLS-
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-
TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INDIAN WELLS VALLEY-
SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT-
951 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2005

...WET WEATHER POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOISTURE HAS TRIGGERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DESERTS THIS EVENING...
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY OVER THE DESERT IN SOUTHEASTERN KERN
COUNTY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE KERN
COUNTY DESERTS BY MIDNIGHT...AND SPREAD INTO THE KERN AND TULARE
COUNTY MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PUSH NORTHWARD UP THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DRIFT
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FLOOR DURING THE
DAY.

IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS AND THE KERN
COUNTY DESERTS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE BETWEEN A TENTH AND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL REMAIN ABOVE TEN THOUSAND
FEET...WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE NEAR
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA CREST.

ANY STORMS THAT DRIFT OVER THE VALLEY FLOOR AND FOOTHILLS COULD
PRODUCE LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH UP TO
A TENTH OF AN INCH. IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. BECAUSE THE
AIRMASS WILL BE WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
END OVER MOST AREAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA CREST.

PEOPLE WITH RAIN SENSITIVE INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS AND
THE LATEST CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR
FAVORITE NEWS SOURCE...FOR LATER STATEMENTS ON THIS DEVELOPING
WEATHER PATTERN.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD /USE ALL LOWER CASE/

SANGER