Strong Wind in California, October 2 to 3, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
245 PM PDT SUN OCT 2 2005

.SHORT TERM...FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...AS EXPECTED,
MUCH COOLER THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS ABOUT 10
TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSAGE USHERED IN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AT ALL LEVELS.
ANOTHER WAVE IS POISED TO CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, PRODUCING EVEN
COOLER READINGS TOMORROW. WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL COME BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS OF KERN COUNTY. NICE AREA OF
DARKENING ON THE WATER VAPOR INDICATING SUBSIDENCE WILL ACCOMPANY
THE TROUGH PASSAGE TONIGHT, WHICH WILL HELP STRENGTHEN WINDS AT
THE SURFACE. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW. THE TIMING
BETWEEN MAX SURFACE HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
IS SLIGHTLY OUT OF SYNC FOR OPTIMUM WIND SPEEDS, BUT FEEL THE WINDS
WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN AND WILL
REMAIN STRONG ALL NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CROSSES THE
STATE. GRADIENTS REMAIN ELEVATED TOMORROW AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES IN THE SJV TOMORROW WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID-UPPER
70S...A FEW DEGREES BELOW THIS AFTERNOON/S READINGS. A SLOW RECOVER
IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS, WITH EVERY RUN, HAVE BEEN
MODERATING THE WARMING TREND, THUS I BUMPED TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR
TWO BOTH TUES AND WED.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING AN EVER INCREASING
AMOUNT OF STRATO-CU DEVELOPING ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA. HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. A QUICK GLIMPSE OUTSIDE REVEALS A BATCH OF LOW-MID STRATUS
CLOUDS NORTH OF THE OFFICE NEAR FRESNO. WITH THE RELATIVELY HIGH
HUMIDITIES HERE IN THE VALLEY...THINKING IS THAT MUCH OF THIS
MOISTURE WILL POOL OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND SOUTH END OF THE VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECASTER INCREASED GRIDDED CLOUD COVER
OVER THESE AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND I WILL MAKE MENTION OF IT IN
THE LATEST ZONE PACKAGE.

.LONG TERM...FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT OVER THE REGION WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE GREAT BASIN BRINGING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK. THE EURO MODELS PROGS
AN UPPER TO MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER MOST
OTHER GUIDANCE MODELS INDICATE A MUCH WEAKER UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL
PUSH WELL TO THE NORTH ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE.
ALTHOUGH WIND FLOW MAY BECOME ONSHORE SATURDAY...EXPECT DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...LOCAL CEILINGS BETWEEN 060-070 ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AROUND MIDNIGHT OR 07Z ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS...SOUTH END
OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AND THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z TUESDAY.
DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE TAFS FOR KMCE...KFAT...AND
KBFL.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FROM 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT PST TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD /USE ALL LOWER CASE/

MYERS/MV

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