Damaging Wind in Michigan, October 2, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
240 PM EST SUN OCT 2 2005

.SHORT TERM...

TRICKY FORECAST WITH INITIAL SHRTWV THIS AFTERNOON STILL LINGERING
OVR CWA AND DEW POINTS NOW HITTING 70 OVR W IN. MUCAPE VALUES IN THE
1500-2000 RANGE OVER IL/IN BORDER AND INTO THE CWA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK SHRTWV MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH OVER INDIANA IN
RESPONSE TO VORT MAX AND MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION ALONG A WARM FRONT. THETA E VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
FEW EMBEDDED TSRA WITH SHRTWV THIS AFTERNOON.

WATCHING DVLPMNT OF AHEAD OF NEXT SHRTWV OVR IL. CONVECTION IS DVLPG
ALONG DEW POINT DIFFERENTIAL (LOW-MID 60S/LOW 70S) AND EAST FLANK OF
STRONG VORT MAX AHEAD OF H50 TROF. IF TREND CONTINUES SHRA/TSRA WILL
MAINLY ADVECT INTO WRN CWA BY 22Z. ADDED 50 POP OVER WRN 3RD FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DVLPG COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA. THINK MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS MAINLY DIURNAL BUT DECAYING MCS MOVING INTO UNSTABLE AIR
MAY REDEVELOP ITSELF. MOST GUIDANCE NOT EVEN SHOWING CURRENT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SO FORECAST WEIGHS HEAVILY TOWARDS WHAT IS
ACTUALLY DEVELOPING ATTM. WILL CONTINUE WITH 30 POP OVR W AND N 3RD
OF CWA OVERNIGHT WITH PREV FCST WITH DECAYING SHRTWV OVR NWESTERN
MO IN RESPONSE TO A 50 KT H85 JET OVR S PLAINS MOVES INTO IA/WI THIS
EVE.

NEXT QUESTION IS IDEA OF ANY LIGHT PRECIP LINGERING OVER EAST CWA IN
RESPONSE TO A VORT MAX PROGGED ON GFS/MET WITH HELP FROM MOISTURE
OUT OF KY FROM BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE. ADDED 30 POP FOR MON AM OVR
FAR NW OH. ALSO NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN ANY WAY OF FOG MON AM...SO
LEFT OUT OF FORECAST.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...RAISED MINS TONIGHT A FEW. I COULD SEE SBN
WARMER...BUT WITH GUIDANCE LAST FEW NIGHTS BEING TOO WARM WENT A FEW
LOWER THAN GFS/MET. PLUS THE MAX MIN TEMP FOR SBN OCT 3RD IS 65 SET
BACK IN 1983...FWA MAX MIN IS ALSO 65 SET WAY BACK IN 1919. NEAR
RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED AS MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE IN THE MID 80S FOR
MON...LITTLE WARMER OVER SW.

&&

.LONG TERM...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
REGION WILL REMAIN IN AN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
LIKELY INTO MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE
+15 TO +17 C RANGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD (5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE 30 YR
CLIMO). WITH FULL SUN...UPPER 80S WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY. RECORD AT SOUTH BEND WOULD BE TIED WITH FORECAST HIGH OF 87
WITH FORT WAYNE LIKELY SAFE WITH A RECORD OF 90. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
COULD POSE AN ISSUE ON TUESDAY WITH THE FORECAST HIGHS...WITH
LOCATIONS TO THE WEST TODAY WITH MANY AREAS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE
70S. WILL KEEP TEMPS AS IS FOR NOW. EXPECTING WARMER TEMPS TUES NGT
WITH CONTINUED SW FLOW AND DEWPTS IN THE 60S...SO HAVE BUMPED UP A
BIT. SEVERAL CHALLENGES FOR WEDS REGARDING TIMING OF FRONT...CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION/SVR WX AND HIGH TEMPS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN
PROGRESS OF FRONT...ESPECIALLY THE GFS WHICH DOESNT HAVE FROPA TILL
CLOSER TO THURS AM. SFC DEWPTS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S GIVING A
MORE FAVORABLE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION...BUT TEMPS MAY POSE THE
LIMITING FACTOR ONCE AGAIN. IF GREATER SUNSHINE CAN BE REALIZED AND
TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 80S...THUNDER MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IN AND RISK
FOR SVR WOULD INCREASE WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

AFTER THIS...TEMPS WILL RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR SEVERAL
DAYS WITH POTENTIAL FOR FROST STILL STICKING AROUND FOR THURS AND
FRI NGTS. 850 MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 5 C AND EVEN TRY TO GO BELOW ZERO
ON A FEW MODELS. ECMWF PROVIDES AN INTERESTING SCENARIO WITH CUTOFF
500 MB LOW AND CORE OF -1 TO +1 C TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY WITH FAVORABLE DELTA TS AND SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FETCH. WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY CHANGES FOR THURS AND REMAINDER OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT SBN TILL CLOSE TO SUNSET. SECONDARY
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING BKN-OVC BACK TO SBN THIS EVE INTO PORTIONS OF
THE OVERNIGHT. STILL UNCERTAIN IF SBN TERMINAL WILL SEE ANY PRECIP
OR VCTS...SO FOR THIS ISSUANCE LEFT OUT. FWA CHC OF VCTS ARE EVEN
SLIMMER. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT BOTH SITES WITH
LOWEST RESTRICTIONS IN THE MVFR CAT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WAMSLEY
LONG TERM...FISHER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
845 AM EST SUN OCT 2 2005

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-031005-
ADAMS IN-ALLEN OH-ALLEN IN-BERRIEN MI-BLACKFORD IN-BRANCH MI-CASS MI-
CASS IN-DE KALB IN-DEFIANCE OH-ELKHART IN-FULTON OH-FULTON IN-
GRANT IN-HENRY OH-HILLSDALE MI-HUNTINGTON IN-JAY IN-KOSCIUSKO IN-
LA PORTE IN-LAGRANGE IN-MARSHALL IN-MIAMI IN-NOBLE IN-PAULDING OH-
PULASKI IN-PUTNAM OH-ST. JOSEPH MI-ST. JOSEPH IN-STARKE IN-
STEUBEN IN-VAN WERT OH-WABASH IN-WELLS IN-WHITE IN-WHITLEY IN-
WILLIAMS OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANGOLA...ARCHBOLD...AUBURN...
BENTON HARBOR...BENTON HEIGHTS...BERNE...BLUFFTON...BREMEN...BRYAN...
BUCHANAN...BUTLER...COLDWATER...COLUMBIA CITY...DECATUR...DEFIANCE...
DELPHOS...DOWAGIAC...DUNKIRK...DUNLAP...ELKHART...FAIR PLAIN...
FAIRMOUNT...FORT SHAWNEE...FORT WAYNE...GARRETT...GAS CITY...
GEORGETOWN...GOSHEN...GRANGER...GRISSOM AFB...GULIVOIRE PARK...
HARTFORD CITY...HICKSVILLE...HILLSDALE...HUNTINGTON...KENDALLVILLE...
KNOX...LA PORTE...LAGRANGE...LIGONIER...LIMA...LOGANSPORT...MARION...
MICHIGAN CITY...MISHAWAKA...MONTICELLO...MONTPELIER...NAPOLEON...
NAPPANEE...NEW HAVEN...NILES...NORTH MANCHESTER...OSSIAN...OTTAWA...
PERU...PLYMOUTH...PORTLAND...ROCHESTER...SIMONTON LAKE...
SOUTH BEND...ST. JOSEPH...STURGIS...SWANTON...SYRACUSE...
THREE RIVERS...TRAIL CREEK...TRI-LAKES...UPLAND...VAN WERT...
WABASH...WARSAW...WAUSEON...WESTVILLE...WINAMAC AND WINONA LAKE
505 AM EST SUN OCT 2 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN INDIANA...NORTHWEST
OHIO AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN....MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM PORTLAND
INDIANA TO FORT WAYNE TO COLDWATER MICHIGAN. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA. WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND
SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTHWEST
OF A LOGANSPORT TO WAUSEON LINE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES, OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-061-031005-
505 AM EST SUN OCT 2 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS AND
SMALL HAIL.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES, OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX