Flash Flood in California, October 16, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
115 PM PDT SUN OCT 16 2005

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING...STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OFF THE COAST...
WILL BRING THE FIRST WIDESPREAD RAIN OF THE SEASON...ALONG WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD
CAUSE FLOODING IN THE DESERTS AND MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY IN AND
BELOW RECENTLY BURNED AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AVERAGING AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY AND MILD WEATHER RETURNING FOR THE BALANCE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD NOW WRAPPING INTO THE
CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER LOW CENTER SINKING S ABOUT 100 MILES SW
OF SAN DIEGO. THE AIRMASS STREAMING N THROUGH THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY IS TAPPING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF CA
RESULTING IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. YUMA RADAR SHOWS
AREAS OF CONVECTION MOVING RAPIDLY NW...S OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. MOST OF THE RAINFALL UP UNTIL NOW HAS BEEN LIGHT BUT WITH
FLOW FROM THE GULF NOW ENTERING THE PICTURE...THE LOWER LAYERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOISTEN...AND STEADIER AND GRADUALLY HEAVIER RAINS WILL
DEVELOP OVER FAVORED TERRAIN IN THE DESERTS AND THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES. WHILE SHOWERS AND A FEW FAST
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS
REMAIN MARGINAL FOR PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN DUE TO UPSLOPE. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT BEGINNING EARLY MON MORNING WHEN THE
AIRMASS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY MOIST FOR HEAVIER AND STEADIER
OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED RAINS. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY
LIGHT.

COMPUTER MODELS STALL THE UPPER LOW NEAR 30N 120W ON MONDAY...THEN
PULL IT NE OVER THE AREA ON TUE. THE HEAVIEST...STEADIEST RAINS
SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY IN PLACE. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN...STRONG E WINDS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH MON NIGHT. AT THIS TIME
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT STRONGER WINDS COULD SURFACE LOCALLY IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THUNDERSTORMS ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLDEST POOL
OF AIR WITH THE STORM CENTER SHOULD BE OVER SAN DIEGO COUNTY ON TUE
SO EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPS TO BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE BOTH MON AND TUE.

THE STORM SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO DEPART THE AREA TUE NIGHT WITH
DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER THROUGH FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING AROUND IT. VARIABLE CLOUDS AND MULTIPLE
CLOUD LAYERS FROM AROUND 1500 FT UP TO 20000 FT. LOW IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING
BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH INTO TUESDAY
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCAL IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...SEE LAXFFASGX.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SEE LAXSPSSGX.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY...SEE LAXSRFSGX

&&

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION...ECC

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