Hail and Damaging Wind in Arkansas, November 27, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
958 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

.UPDATE...
WILL GET OUT AN UPDATE TO GET RID OF THE MORNING SHOWERS. A LOT OF
LOW CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BUT NO PRECIP IS
INDICATED ON KLZK RADAR. UPDATED TEMPERATURES IN THE GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. MAX TEMPS LOOK FINE AT THIS POINT.
COLD FRONT STILL IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA MOVING EAST.
AS THE LOW APPROACHES WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE. MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCLUDED
MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE AFTERNOON PERIOD AS STORMS MAY
GENERATE BY LATE AFTERNOON...22Z-23Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 315 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005/

SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
PRECIPITATION TOOK A WHILE TO MAKE IT INTO THE CWA SATURDAY AND
LOOKING BACK...IT APPEARS THE GFS ACTUALLY HAD THE BETTER TIMING.
WITH OVERRRUNING EVENT WRAPPING UP EARLY THIS MORNING...ITS TIME TO
CONCENTRATE ON THE DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE EVENT SLATED FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WHILE NAM AND GFS ARE BOTH DEEPER AND SLOWER
WITH THE SYSTEM TONIGHT...STILL LIKE THE GFS SOLUTION. BASED ON THE
CONTINUITY OF THE GFS AND ITS HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
NOW...SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE AWAY FROM IT.

OVERRUNNING/WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE NORTH AS WEAKENING MID LEVEL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE OVER BY PRESS TIME BUT WILL STILL HOLD ON TO SOME MINIMAL POPS
EARLY OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA AS RUC13 MODEL HOLDS ON TO
SOME LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH MID MORNING. MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE
DRY AS AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

MAJOR PLAYERS STILL SHOWING UP QUITE NICELY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING...MAINLY THE EXITING MID LEVEL WAVE AND THE VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES. DEEP TROF EVIDENT
JUST SOUTH OF THE 4 CORNERS WITH STRONG IMPULSE ROTATING THROUGH ITS
BASE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. SYSTEM STILL LOOSELY
ORGANIZED AT THE MOMENT BUT BUT EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INTENSIFY LATER
THIS MORNING AS IT LIFTS OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

LEE CYCLOGENESIS ALREADY UNDERWAY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE
LOW ALSO EXPECTED TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE
EXIT REGION OF MID LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH. SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO
BE IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY MID DAY AND RACING OFF INTO SOUTHERN
IOWA BY MONDAY MORNING. PROJECTED PATH WOULD KEEP AREA IN WARM
SECTOR THE ENTIRE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING GOOD MOISTURE
RETURN. GRADIENT BETWEEN SYSTEMS LOOKS PRETTY TIGHT AND WILL HOIST A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR TODAY.

EXPECTING SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL THEN SWEEP
THROUGH THE STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG DIFFLUENCE
NOTED ALOFT ALONG WITH GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE BUT INSTABILITY
APPEARS MARGINAL AT BEST RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CONCERN
THAT COULD CHANGE. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TODAY SHOULD KEEP
INSTABILITY IN CHECK BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING COULD LEAD TO
EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. BIGGEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH FAST MOVING LINE WHICH WILL BE LOCATED NEAR
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR MIDNIGHT.

WILL END THE PCPN ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY EVENING
AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER SOME BRIEF CLEARING SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY...LARGE SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE MAIN LOW
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS TROF AXIS PASSES THROUGH.
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OF INITIALLY
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONGER COLD AIR AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE TROF.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY FOR DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE WEDNESDAY AS CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND WINDS RETURN
TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL.
MAV NUMBERS LOOK PRETTY GOOD BUT WILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
LARGE VORTEX TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
STATE WHILE RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST. H5 RIDGE WILL BE JUST EAST
OF AR BY 00Z SUN...AND IT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY
MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROF WILL BE TRAVERSING
THE ROCKIES. THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A COLD
FRONT HAVING JUST EXITED THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH DRIER AIR OVER THE STATE FROM THE NORTH...WHILE
HOLDING OFF GULF MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. HIGHER RH
VALUES WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH LA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...
BUT THEY DO NOT QUITE PUSH INTO THE STATE. I WILL HAVE TO HOLD OFF
ANY MENTION OF RAIN UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL THURSDAY...AND THEY WILL TAKE A DIP BELOW NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR ARZ003-ARZ004-ARZ005-
ARZ006-ARZ007-ARZ012-ARZ013-ARZ014-ARZ015-ARZ016-ARZ021-ARZ022-
ARZ023-ARZ024-ARZ025-ARZ030-ARZ031-ARZ032-ARZ033-ARZ034-ARZ037-
ARZ038-ARZ039-ARZ040-ARZ041-ARZ042-ARZ043-ARZ044-ARZ045-ARZ046-
ARZ047-ARZ052-ARZ053-ARZ054-ARZ055-ARZ056-ARZ057-ARZ062-ARZ063-
ARZ064-ARZ065-ARZ066-ARZ067-ARZ068-ARZ069.

&&

51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
815 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-281100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
815 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
   TONIGHT...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL GATHER
MORE STRENGTH TODAY. WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BECOME
EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG. WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH
OR A LITTLE EAST OF SOUTH WHILE WINDS ALOFT WILL COME FROM MORE OF A
SOUTHWEST TO WEST DIRECTION.

THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES ACROSS ARKANSAS.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOW WILL BE IN NORTHEAST KANSAS...WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY
ALONG THE FRONT AROUND MID AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN A NORTH TO SOUTH LINE ALONG
THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE
TO THE EAST RAPIDLY AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS LINE MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR TORNADOES AND A FEW SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
SOME LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE LINE. ANY OF THESE COULD BECOME SEVERE OR TORNADIC
WITH DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL.

THE LOW PRESSURE WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH
AND TO BECOME GUSTY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA TODAY. ANYBODY VENTURING OUT ON LAKES TODAY WILL NEED TO
EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION FOR BOTH THE STRONG WINDS AND THE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT LAKE WIND
ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME AREAS ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT
ACROSS MOST ALL OF THE AREA.

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. PEOPLE ACROSS
ARKANSAS ARE URGED TO REVIEW THEIR SEVERE WEATHER AND TORNADO
SAFETY RULES AND MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA
OUTLETS FOR LATER STATEMENTS...WATCHES...AND WARNINGS.
&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

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